Friday, April 16, 2010

Colombia: New opinion poll numbers for the Presidential election

This race is beginning to get very interesting indeed. Here's the chart with the latest opinion poll numbers out yesterday evening...


.....and here's a straight translation of this ANSA wire report (I've translated it kinda literally just for a bit of fun...the mentality of Spanish is different, it's not just the words used):

The ex-mayor of Bogotá Antanas Mockus has cut even further the distance between him and the ex-Minister of Defence Juan Manuel Santos, in his aspiration to reach the Presidency of Colombia, according to the results of an opinion poll divulged this afternoon by a televison news program.

According to the study, realized by the National Consulting Centre for the television news program, the Party of the U (centre officialist) has a support of 36%, while Mockus of the Green Party (non-traditional movement) follows him with 29%.

After the two favourites in the polls follow Noemí Sanín (officialist) 19%, Gustavo Petro (opposition) 4%, Rafael Pardo (opposition 4%, Germán Vargas (officialist) 2%.

The television news program CMI, who contracted the opinion poll, informed that the consultation was realized between April 12th and 14th in 38 cities, via telephone calls, with a margin of error 3% and a confiability of 95%.

For sure, the first thing that most will note is that if Sanín doesn't make the run-off (as is looking likely) there are a lot of those 19% that will support Santos in the ballotage. This makes Santos stil the favourite for the whole caboodle, but Mockus really is moving up quickly. There's a lot at stake here, be in no doubt. Mockus is left wing and running under a Green Party ticket, but he's by no means a hard left candidate, he's pro a lot of the things that foreigners watching the election will approve of (FDI, open relations, etc) and is much more the Chilean biz-friendly type of soft left than the Venezuelan type of hard left....but saying that, you junior miners better watch out, because this is the Green Party after all.

By way of a reminder, the first round vote happens May 30th. If no candidate makes it to 50% + 1 vote, then there's a second round run-off between the top two.