The IMF's forecast for Peru 2010

Great news! The IMF has decided that Peru is going to grow its GDP by 5.8% in 2010! YAY!

So let's check the IMF's track record on the country, just to make sure they're trustworthy prognosticators and all that. Here's what the IMF said in February 2009 for last year's forecast:

The pace of economic growth is expected to decelerate to 6 percent in 2009, reflecting the global slowdown, lower terms of trade, and tighter financial conditions that would affect net exports and private investment.

So for the 2009 period the IMF consulted with the government, made its calculations, took into account the global crisis and the effect on world trade, did all its experty-expert stuff and made its forecast of a 6% GDP growth for Peru in 2009.

The real result: Peru grew by 1.12%. D'OH!

Why does the phrase 'dumbasses in suits' keep floating through my mind this morning?

Bolivia: English media acting predicably again

In an amazing, stunning, incredible turn of events, the IMF praised Bolivia's economy to the rafters yesterday. Check out the dozens of Spanish language news stories available on the speech given by IMF bigwig Gilbert Terrier right here. As for content, here's a typical bit translated from the Reuters note.

Gilbert said that, inside a Latin America that has responded better to the (financial) crisis than the industrialized nations, Bolivia stands out with the highest projected growth rate for 2009 of 3.2%, in contrast to Mexico that is heading for a close of negative 7.5%.

"Bolivia has applied successful macroeconomic policies. Its savings and reserves now permit it to apply a countercyclical policy we we suggest it should continue to face any further extrernal economic shocks in the future", he said.

Amongst the successes of Bolivian policy, he highlighted the savings made in the bonanza times of high priced primary goods instead of having spent nearly all the income as other regional countries have done."

The brass-necked bullshittery of the IMF knows no bounds. Anyone with an inkling of economic nous about Bolivia knows that the country managed to increase its international currency reserves to its current all-time record of U$8.5Bn due to one simple policy change, namely the nationalization of the hydrocarbons (i.e. natgas) industry. Now do you remember back in 2005 and 2006 when the world and his wife was decrying this Evo-led policy move? How it would never work? The very same IMF neolib assholes saying it would all end in tears?

So here we are three years later, going through the worst financial crisis in modern times, and the policies of Evo Morales' government are getting praise from those who would have led the country down the path to total ruin. The IMF really deserves this week's coveted award for this one.

But finally, please note how many stories about the IMF's praise for Evo's Bolivia and its macro policy have been published by English language media: Zero. Amazingly..... stunningly... incredibly......

Argentina and the IMF: Just say no to drugs

The big economy news in Argentina this week.....

(No, wait, scrap that)

The big economy news in Latin America this week has been the talks between Argentina's economy team and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Firstly, last week we had headline like this...

Argentine Bonds Gain as Country To Renew IMF Talks, Swap Debt

...from Bloomberg on the 20th. Then yesterday when the talks actually happened we had this....

Argentina Econ Min: 'Positive' Meeting With IMF Official

...from the WSJ. Then suddenly today the tone has changed, with Argentina's new FinMin Boudou saying that...

"The government is not asking the IMF for anything"

...and that the country wouldn't allow conditions to be imposed upon it by the IMF lackeys. If that's true it will be a great weight off everybody's mind down this neck of the woods. Argentina may be one kooky country when it comes to finances and the Kirchner regime is going from bad to worse right now, but one of the better moves in its history happened when Neshtor&Co paid off the IMF debt and kicked them out of the country, slamming the door behind them. In the words of the Ex-Prez in 2005;

"There is life after the IMF, and it's a very good life.....being in the embrace of the IMF isn't exactly like being in heaven."

After what Argentina went through in the late 1990's under the IMF straightjacket which sent them tumbling over the cliff in late 2001, no country in the world knows better about the IMF's hidden agenda. So rather than wax any further lyrical, let's leave it to 'Larry' of the esteemed Argentine economics blog 'los tres chiflados' to tell you what professional, experienced, qualified and intelligent economists in Argentina think of the IMF. The following is the first part from the L3C blog today, well said indeed, Larry.

• Accomplices* in the Latin American dictatorship in the 1970's
• Accomplices in allowing de facto governments to go into debt in the 1980's
• Accomplices in de-industrializing Latin America on the 1990's

The IMF has never looked after the interests of Latin America, it is simply another tool used by the USA for its foreign policy. The IMF finances in exchange for structural economic changes that only favour US economic interests: Open the economy, privatize, make government smaller, don't intervene in the economy (or in its negotiations), liberalize capital flows, don't intervene in the forex market, no trade barriers, no tariffs, liberalize the labour market (restrict rights), don't use generic drugs (so royalties are paid), more laws to cover patents etc etc. We already know the consequences.

To ask the IMF for money is to give in the the temptation of the carrot, is to be under the illusion, is to not recognize the power of the USA in the world, is to be naive about history.........

CONTINUES HERE.

News roundup (move 'em on, head 'em up rawhide)

Evo Morales or John Denver? YOU BE THE JUDGE!

Bolivia gets told by the IMF that it has a strong economy, it should keep spending on social programs, its public sector is healthy and its banking system is strong. Don't say I didn't tell yas.

Mo' Evo, and the coin shown above is one of five that Chile (of all places) presented to Bolivia to mark te 200th anniversaty of the "shout for liberty in Latin America". This must be some sort of Chilean bribery technique (they're not very good at backsheesh in Chile). I'm just waiting for the "Now sell us your natgas, bitches."

Brazil, With Vitoria Saddi posting a neat analysis on the ever strengthening (literally and figuratively) Brazilian Real. With Lula in China the subject is whether the Real will eventually become a convertible currency (i.e. not needing to go via the dollar to do business with, for example, China).

Peru's Amazon basin indigenous vs Peru's government and hydrocarbons development; here's an excellent resource for Spanish speakers to find out the latest from the indigenous side of the argument. For the governmental side, just watch any Peru TV station or read any Peru national newspaper or international newswire.

Chart of the day is...

....the latest round of total guesswork from the IMF.

The green bars show the IMF's 2009 GDP forecast for the countries shown. The red bars are the newly revised forecasts as published yesterday. They were totally wrong then, so what makes the world so eager to believe the IMF this time?

IMF: The quintessential home of dumbasses in suits.

Mexico confuses me

Call me slow if you like, but how can a country that

• has a currency like this
• 

• that ran a U$16.8Bn trade deficit in 2008

• that has an economy set to drop by 5% this year according to Morgan Stanley

• and that according to this Bloomie report, is about to accept thirty to forty billion dollars in bailout cash from the IMF

How can it still be classed as "investment grade"? Can somebody please explain this one to me?

IMF sex scandal (final) update

Ok, I promise this is the last post on this subject as I'm feeling a bit cheesy by gloating over it, but this post gives Mario Blejer's side to the story and I must say makes him look a lot better off without the girl. In a radio interview in Argentina this morning, Blejer said the following

• It wasn't him that found out about the affair, contradicting articles written in the Wall St Journal and elsewhere (including here).

• He's been formally separated from Piroska Nagy for 4 1/2 years without either side asking for a divorce.
  

• They have an 11 year old daughter.

He doesn't really care much about the scandal, and insisted that the whole thing has come out at a time when the IMF and the world in general should be concentrating on how to combat the financial crisis (spoken like a true wonk).

I didn't hear the interview this morning but a friend did. He wrote to me that Blejer came across very well and deserved credit for the way he's faced the public. He was obviously miffed about the episode, but he was hardly crying over the microphone, either. He answered all the questions posed head on and seemed to tell it as it is. So (thankfully) that's the end of the LatAm angle for this whole thing and we can now let the story unfold centred around Dominique Strauss-Kahn's runaway libido and away from this region and this blog.

dirty scummy IMF gossip with pictures of the girl and the cuckold Argentine

Why the horns? Ask a Spanish speaker

Do we want a bit of sordid gossip on the site? Yeah, just for once.

According to the seven million news stories now going around, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the toppy top head honcho of the IMF, has been dipping his wick where he shouldn't (yep, it's a Wolfowitz redux). The nasty bit is that the object of his desire, Piroska Nagy (and here are the photos of Piroska)...

Piroska Nagy is young, blond and smiley

..... is married to current advisor to the governor of the Bank of England, ex IMF dude and ex-head of the Argentine Central Bank, Mario Blejer, 60 (photo above). To complete the vicious circle, Dominique is married to the ultra-famous French journalist (well, famous in France at least) Anne Sinclair. There will be blood.

Love those professional photos, no?

Back to Blejer, and poor old Mario has had a raw deal since finishing his term at the University of Budapest in 2000 (where he presumably fell under the charms of the apparent social climber Nagy). He resigned from the BCRA after a very public falling out with then FinMin Roberto Lavagna. He fiddled around the IMF for a while (and hey!...would ya look at that?? Nagy got a job at the IMF at the same time!! What a coincidence....) and has since then twiddled his thumbs at the BoE waiting for a recall to a ministry job in Argentina that hasn't come. Now according to the reports, he was the one who found the evidence of the affair between Strauss-Kahn and his pretty young wife (via e-mails and texts and all that modern stuff). It all got rumbled way back in February, but up to now the IMF and the people involved have tried to keep it quiet. Not any more.............

So if you feel like consoling Blejer, here's how you can get in touch.

Mario I. Blejer

3022 R Street, NW

Washington DC

20007 USA

Phone 1-202-652-0655 Mobile 1- 202-316-6777

Email marioblejer(AT)blejer.com valueandrisk(AT)yahoo.com mario.blejer(AT)bankofengland.co.uk marioblejer(AT)gmail.com

Tell him Otto sez 'hi', won't you?

UPDATE: Blejer speaks!