More Evidence of Evo's Economic Disaster in Bolivia....

....NOT

Evonomics is good for you. Data from here, with the 2010 estimate extrapolated from the 9.66% growth in demand YoY in the period Jan-Aug 2010. In fact, demand is so high right now that Bolivia is seeing supply shortfalls, resulting price surges in cement and the government stepping in to buy 10,000MT from neighbouring Peru to help meet the shortfall at a State controlled price.

Peru's cement dispatches

With the headlines of GDP growth in Peru catching eyes (compared to a crappy month in 2009 it looks stellar, but even taking the baseline into account it was a good figure posted) IKN thought it'd take a look at a set of stats that's usually more reliable than the manipulated headline BS, that of cement dispatches in Peru.

Cement is a useful baseline to gauge activity, especially construction activity (duh) because it's usually consumed nationally (negligible exports from Peru), it has a limited lifespan as a product (not so much hoarding) and it also takes plenty people to move it around and do things with it (especially in a largely non-mechanized country such as Peru where you often see cement and sand being mixed by hand and shovel to make the concrete for somebody's house). So here's the annual chart:

Our prediction for 2010 may turn out to be slightly on the low side, in fact, but even if we out by a few thousand metric tonnes either side, the tendency is crystal clear. Peru is building things and alot of it is because people have access to loans and credit facilities, often for the very first time. Because owing nothing to anybody is soooo old fashioned and being in hock for your adult life is progress. Right?

Yeah well, maybe a bit too snarky. Peru is showing strong construction growth and that's a good thing overall, that we can say.

That weak Bolivian economy again

(H/T to reader JR)

On this link you'll find the second quarter results of GCC, the Mexican cement company that has the biggest market share in Bolivia. It also does business in the USA and Mexico. So let's check the scoreboard to find out how GCC has been doing.

NET SALES (millions of dollars)
		2Q 09		2Q 08		2Q 09 vs 2Q 08			6M 09		6M 08		6M 09 vs 6M 08
Consolidated		175.6		217.8		-19.4%			306.9		369.6		-17.0%
United States		102.9		123.0		-16.3%			165.3		199.2		-17.0%
Mexico		46.2		75.0		-38.4%			89.5		133.5		-33.0%
Bolivia		26.5		19.8		33.8%			52.1		36.9		41.2%

Yes, that does say what you think it says. In dollar terms in the second quarter, sales are down 16.3% in dollar terms in the United States of America. Sales are down 38.4% in Mexico. But sales are up 33.8% in Bolivia. And if we use the Mexican peso (the currency that GCC reports) sales were up 76%, due to the fact that the Bolivian currency is strong...and that's due to the fact that the whole freakin' economy is whupping the rest of South America's tush bigtime. Here are the reasons for the sales figures as given by GCC:

FINANCIAL RESULTS

Net Sales in the second quarter of 2009 rose 3.6% with respect to the year ago period, totaling $2,358.6 million pesos. This was the result of a 6.4% increase in the United States and 76.0% in Bolivia.

In the United States, sales in pesos rose 6.4% compared to the second quarter of 2008 as a result of a more favorable pricing environment in concrete and the depreciation of the peso against the dollar. There was a decline in the residential and public infrastructure sectors, and a slight improvement in the commercial sector.

In Mexico, sales totaled $616.0 million pesos in the second quarter of 2009, a lower figure than in the same quarter of last year. Public infrastructure showed some strengthening, while activity in the residential and commercial sectors declined. The pricing environment in cement and concrete was more favorable.

GCC’s proportional sales in Bolivia rose 76.0% during the second quarter of 2009 compared to the year ago period. This strong growth was due to greater demand in the DIY and commercial-industrial sectors, as well as the depreciation of the peso against the Bolivian peso.

So the next time somebody starts on about that bad economy in Bolivia, tell 'em to STFU, yeah?