Dynasty Metals (DMM.to) and the games people play

Here's the action in DMM.to right now. Interesting stuff that shows how "the houses" (aka the Canadian brokerages) will try to scam weak hands out of their positions.

11:19:20 T 3.05 -0.30 1,000 19 Desjardins 19 Desjardins K
11:18:56 T 3.00 -0.35 200 2 RBC 7 TD Sec K
11:18:56 T 3.00 -0.35 100 19 Desjardins 7 TD Sec K
11:09:15 T 3.01 -0.34 100 1 Anonymous 1 Anonymous K
11:08:59 T 3.01 -0.34 300 1 Anonymous 1 Anonymous K
11:08:59 T 3.01 -0.34 100 19 Desjardins 1 Anonymous K
11:07:21 T 3.10 -0.25 50 79 CIBC 19 Desjardins E
11:05:16 T 3.10 -0.25 200 79 CIBC 1 Anonymous K
11:05:16 T 3.10 -0.25 100 79 CIBC 19 Desjardins K
11:00:51 T 3.10 -0.25 100 7 TD Sec 1 Anonymous K
11:00:51 T 3.10 -0.25 100 7 TD Sec 19 Desjardins K
11:00:34 T 2.85 -0.50 1,000 19 Desjardins 85 Scotia K
10:54:25 T 2.78 -0.57 200 1 Anonymous 1 Anonymous K
10:54:25 T 2.98 -0.37 1,500 1 Anonymous 1 Anonymous K

10:54:25 T 3.00 -0.35 1,000 1 Anonymous 1 Anonymous K

10:54:25 T 3.25 -0.10 200 2 RBC 19 Desjardins K

10:54:25 T 3.25 -0.10 2,000 9 BMO Nesbitt 19 Desjardins K

10:54:25 T 3.25 -0.10 300 9 BMO Nesbitt 19 Desjardins K

10:54:22 T 3.26 -0.09 1,000 7 TD Sec 19 Desjardins K

10:51:20 T 3.30 -0.05 1,000 19 Desjardins 15 UBS K

10:51:20 T 3.30 -0.05 500 7 TD Sec 15 UBS K

10:42:06 T 3.37 +0.02 1,000 88 E-TRADE 79 CIBC K

Right now we have the bid at $3.00 and the ask at $3.09. What does all this mean? Well, first check out the three trades that plunged DMM.to down from $3.25 to $2.78 (i've highlighted them in red). A total of 2,700 shares was enough to wipe the stock down 47c. You'll also note that the previous four trades when Desjardins sold into the bid came with exactly the same time stamp as the three "anonymous" trades that dumped the stock. If you think this is pure coincidence I have a nice bridge you might be interested in purchasing. Since then the stock got bought in, but it's still 10% cheaper than yesterday's prices and there are people getting nervous and wanting to bail at $3.05 thanks to this move.

I love it when the big boys start wanting in! Sure they'll use tricks and scamettes to shake shares out from the weaker hands, the kind of investor who says "well...it's moved from $1.30 to $3, I still got myself a win" and hands over their shares in true patsy style. But I love it when this stuff starts happening because a) I can top at lower prices if I feel the need and b) it means they want the stock in their portfolios. That can only be good for the wiser and steadier hands among us.

So let da boyz play their little games. This time is Desjardins trying to fake the field, but next time it might be another house. They haven't managed to shake much fruit out (just 3,350 shares traded since the dump move) so expect them to put DMM.to on the rollercoaster a few more times....get people nervy and that. Me? I'm holding. Very very holding.

Argentina: The peso forex hits 3.43

There has been a pretty severe move in the Argentine Peso from its recent baseline level ArgP$3.12 or so versus the dollar to the P$3.43 being printed this morning.

Argentina Peso Versus US Dollar, 12 month chart

Reports from the presidential palace are that the Kirchners' are hopping mad about this move and are trying to pin the blame on anyone, from the AFJP (bugbear of the month) to Grupo Rocca (bugbear of the week) to the "business cartel" to a more generalizaed "speculators" fist-in-the-air. I'm not joking, either and here's Critica on the whole charade. Apparently the fools think that the strange thing called 'the market' shouldn't be used to bet against the state.

My four year old daughter has a better concept of finances than the leader of Argentina (and his wife). What would Occam and his razor say to 1) Argentina announces it is nationalizing its pensions system and then 2) its currency suddenly loses 10% against the greenback? If I'm ever required to explain what's going on with the Argentine economy to los Kirchner I'd better remember to extract all words above two syllables. No wonder Martin Redrado is at the end of his tether with these clowns; explaining financial realities to the Ks must be like herding cats.

I think we saw the market bottom yesterday....

Can you sniff the bottom, too?

....but I'm not betting on it, not yet anyway. I'm still very much in cautious whuss mode and want some decent, solid evidence before jumping in in any great way, shape or form. No heroics, no "nailing the bottom", no diving in from your boring, boring Otto.

As a reminder, apart from the LT port (simply doesn't count) I've been in cash bar a few SLV for weeks. I've had a couple of splash'n'dashes along the way and even made a buck or two, but nothing serious and nothing held for more than a couple of days. So that cash is sitting there waiting for a home, and it'll get one if the dollar drops and the market either holds or rises at the same time. I'm not worried about mssing the first 10% of any move, as long as the move is backed up by some decent fundies....and I'm beginning to sniff a few.

UPDATE Friday morning: Here's another reason to sniff that bottom: headlines such as these these this morning...

• Consumers' mood suffers record drop in October- Reuters
• Bush: Credit thaw 'going to take awhile'- AP
• Home construction falls sharply in September- AP

...and the broad markets rally off early lows. That's a good sign. And I forgot one of the best signs of all; Jim Cramer called "panic sell" last week.