Ahorita nomas

As noted yesterday, Lima Peru has a supply shortage of LNG natgas for fuel (cars, cooking etc). We now hear from Peru's Ministry of Enrgy and Mining that the problem will be solved "in a few days". Says minister Pedro Sánchez:

"We have a ship loaded with 17 million tonnes (of natgas) that can't be docked to deliver to the Zetagas and Solgas terminals in Callao (due to the current high seaswell).......this is a temporary problem and will be resolved in the next few days."

Therefore, IKN would like to remind people of observations made in a different context regarding timescales in South America many moons ago. Some terminology to note:

1) "Ahorita pues" (right now), means any time from now until past the next meal time.

2) "Dame un segundo" (give me a second), means exactly that, but it might mean a second that's embedded anywhere inside the next hour.

3) "Aqui nomas" (right here), used to tell you where the nearest bank/telephone/police station/taxi rank etc etc is, might involve a walk of between ten metres and six blocks

4) "Ya viene" (s/he's coming now), used by somebody's secretary to denote the imminent arrival of the boss. See definition of point 1) above for further details.

What could possibly go wrong? Spanish lesson complete, please enjoy your day.

More evidence of Bolivia's imminent economic collapse

From time to time you get talk in Englang biz circles about how demand for Bolivia's natgas has been dropping, for example the mail received by this humble scribe from some reader who is clearly a great fan and utter admirer of IKN (even though they did use a lot of swear words in the mail, made certain incorrect assumptions concerning the marital status of my parents at the time of my conception and also forgot to leave their name at the bottom of the missive).

The normal tactic from the Evo-haters is to take the highest spike in demand (back in mid 2008, when it was cheaper for Brazil to buy as much Bolivian natgas as possible under the contract terms than for PBR to actually pump it themselves), wait until it drops to 20 million cubic metres per day (that happens occasionally, as its the minimum amount that Brazil can buy in a contract that runs until 2019) and start shouting "END OF WOOORLD!". In other words, the normal biased BS chatter from people that can't wait for a whole nation (that they probably couldn't find on a map) to collapse just so they can watch nine million people starve and riot and kill each other because some asshole in the WSJ or Fox told them that Evo Morales was an ooga booga man.

Sorry dudes, not gonna happen. Let's check out the other export market for Bolivia's natgas, Argentina, and the deal struck today that will be formalized in a super duper signing ceremony twixt Evo and Klishtina late March.

Yup, the 2.4m cubic metres per day getting pumped to Argentina will become a minimum 5mm3/d this year. It then starts ratcheting up bigstyle in 2013 and ever onwards and upwards 2017 to 2026.

Add to that the recent average of 22mm3/d to Brazil, or if you prefer the average of 25mm3/d this month Feb 2010 (the StoopidChorus always goes quiet when that number starts clicking back up), mix in the fact that two major clients are better than one when it comes to price negotiations and you end up thinking that Evo&Co isn't going to be short of a penny or two as this decade unfolds.

Today's Bolivia has the best growth in the region, virtual zero inflation, a strong currency backed by sound monetary policy, savings at record levels, a property boom going on that speaks of growing acquisitive power of its citizens and is getting kids to schools and bellies full at rates never seen. Now that growth is getting locked in by long-term exports contracts that will benefit the state first and the oil companies second. Don't you just hate it when PinkoCommieSocialists are better at running a nation's economy than your neocon liars-in-chief?

Singanis served, the end.