Peru's cabinet reshuffle happens this week

Twobreakfasts this morning announced that the current band of ineffective and corrupt puppets that make up his cabinet will be changed this weekend, including the official goodbye for Yehude Simon. Speculation is now underway about who will make up the new cabinet of ineffective and corrupt puppets with "Who gets the PM job?" top of the list of chattering class questions that nobody outside Peru really cares about.

Thus, as Otto would just love to join the chattering classes one of these days, here's a list of possibles with odds and comments by your humble scribe:

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski: Most likely choice right now. PPK has made it clear he's running for Prez in 2011 and the PM job will give him the public radar he needs to launch a campaign. Architect of the economic reforms in the Toledo gov't. Rich and influential and likes reminding people of those two facts. Current odds: Even money.

Rafael Rey: The current Ambassador to Italy, Twobreakfasts met with Rey last weekend for informal talks about.....we don't know (it was off agenda). Not an APRA party member but rightwing leaning and proponent of orthodox economic measures (i.e. status quo in Peru). Member of Opus Dei. Current odds: 3/1 (but quite likely to get a cabinet job).

José Chang: Current Education Minister, APRA lapdog and Twobreakfasts sycophant. About as charismatic as a vanilla blancmange. If Twobreakfasts wants to play it neutral (unlikely) he has a squeak. Current odds: 6/1.

Mercedes Araoz: Current Minister of Foreign Commerce and the point person in the Free Trade Agreements. An honest politico (that rare breed in Peru) and generally liked (perhaps better said is 'not disliked') by both peers and citizens. May be too valuable where she already is. Current odds: 8/1.

Lourdes Flores: Head of the UN party and rightwing fave, Flores might accept if offered to give herself radar before 2011. Twobreakfasts would have to swallow some of the gargantuan pride to put her in a position of power, though. Coming to the end of her shelf life as a presidential candidate. Current odds: 10/1

Javier Silva Ruete: Ex-FinMin and respected figure, but probably ruled out because he's nobody's puppet. The kind of guy that's just too honest to get to the top in PeruPolitik. Current odds 10/1.

Ollanta Humala: More chance of the hole in my tush healing up than this dude getting a job under Twobreakfasts. Current odds: 100/1.

Susana Villarán on Peru's New PM, Yehude Simon

Susana Villarán and Yehude Simon

Susana Villarán is an IKN blogfriend (check out the interview we did here) and an all round good egg. So it's good to see her interviewed tonight by El Comercio, Peru's newspaper of record, on the appointment of Yehude Simon as Cabinet Chief and new Prime Minister.

The interview is linked here for you Spanish speakers, and below is the full text in OttoTranslation. Well worth reading to see how things might change in the Peruvian scene (though I have to say I'm more pessimistic than Villarán after watching 10 of the "resigned" ministers get their jobs back yesterday, even though Simon today said that two or three of them won't make it to Christmas).

Here's the translation of the Villarán interview. Enjoy.

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Simon Is One of the New Leaders of the Democratic and Modern Left

The ex-Minister of Women and Social Development, Susana Villarán, today said that the new Head of Ministers, Yehude Simon, will ad more weight to the fight against poverty, and was confident that this politician has become one of the new leaders of the new, modern left-wing of Peru.

"We greet Simon as new Prime Minister. He is a decentralizer and we believe that with him (in charge) this issue will be important in the government agenda. Simon will also add great weight in the issue of the fight against poverty and exclusion", Villarán told elcomercio.com.pe.

She laso said that other issues that must be tackled by debates in this government are the eradication of extreme poverty, the absence of political manipulation in social programs as well as the unrestricted respect for human rights.

She emphasized that before the resignation of ex-premier Jorge Del Castillo, the government had not looked for multi-sector agreement to fight poverty, but had rather looked to politicize social programs. "This is very dangerous", she commented.

Villarán said that inside the new democratic left Simon had taken a role of leader, alongside other figures such as Vladimiro Huaroc (president of the Junín region) or Jesús Coronel (president of the Cajamarca region). "It's good that the democratic left is not lacking leadership", she said.

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Related Post
An interview with Susana Villarán

Other Sites
Link to Susana Villarán's blog

Things still very tight-lipped about the new Peru Cabinet

Twobreakfasts unveils his new honesty image,
complete with bespoke uniform

I was in two minds to write this post, as we're all going to find out this evening anyway at the swearing in ceremony, but here we go:

So far nine of the 16 ministers have been pencilled in. Along with the names given yesterday, two more current ministers are likely to retain their posts (the mediocre Chang at education has been ratified). The only "new" name is a dude named Ugarte in the Health Ministry. He's Yehude Simon's political pal and an ex Veep Health Minister in the Toledo gov't. The striking doctors have welcomed the choice, so all is well there. The others jobs are still being kept very quiet, with total lockdown on my inside info sources. So be it.

As for blogfriend Susana Villarán, jungle drums say she kinda refused the Ministry of Women job (though not out of hand) saying that she's been there and done that already and a new face might be a better choice. I'd like to see her accept the position, personally. She knows what is needed, and she's as honest as they come. She's also an outspoken Twobreakfasts critic. Vamos a ver........

The other thing to report is that word says Alan has chosen 8 people and Simon the other 8.....signs of compromise gov't or splitting things down the middle already? You be the judge!

Perou, et la plus ça change..........

Word from Lima's halls of power is that the new cabinet of ministers will be sworn in tomorrow, and up to six of the old ministers are likely to keep their jobs....so much for all that new-broom-massive-swing-to-the-left talk, eh? Let's have a look at who's staying:

Economy: Luis Valdivieso. There was a chance that PPK took over here, but as Valdivieso 1) is fairly new in the post, 2) ex-IMF, following policies directly handed down to him by PPK via Carranza, and 3) Simon surely doesn't have a better alternative, then Luis stays. This one has been confirmed, by the way....neolib econ policies continue business as usual etc etc

Foreign Commerce: Mercedes Aráoz. She's done a fairly good job, has to be said. Also with the FTA about to be fully implemented there aren't that many people in Peru who have read the whole document more than once, so keeping Mercedes here is probably a time-saver. This one is confirmed

Foreign Relations: José García Belaunde. Belaunde is one of those old-school criollo Lima establishment family members that gets respect from place like Chile. Not a bad guy....Otto has no problem about him staying. This one is confirmed.

Now for three other that are likely (though not yet confirmed) to keep their jobs:

Employment: Jorge Villasante. It's a figurehead job anyway (all job creation comes from the FinMin policies, and the ministry of production overlaps on this portfolio, too) and the guy is no charisma-bearer, either. If confirmed, this one shows that Yehude Simon isn't getting a free hand over ministerial picks.

Environment: Antonio Brack Egg. This dude must stay because 1) he's respected by all sides of the issue 2) he's actually been doing some work since getting his job and 3) there's nobody else in Peru with a resume to match.

Justice: Rosario Fernández. This is probably because President Twobreakfasts doesn't want to be indicted at the end of his mandate. Either that or he's jealous about the number of Fernández's in ministerial jobs over in Argentina and wants one for himself.

So at the moment of the 16 ministerial positions there are three jobs confirmed, three jobs likely filled and ten unknowns. As for those 10 spots, things are very tight-lipped right now (the vacancies include the key interior ministry, education, too). However be assured that your snoopy Otto will dig out the juice as soon as possible......or if not we all find out together at the swearing-in ceremony tomorrow.