Peru June GDP negative 2.08%

Read all about it here

Ah, that economic miracle. I wonder who's feeling the most stupid right now?

• Spongebob and his "ya tocamos fondo" repeated this time every month?

• Twobreakfasts and his "we're armour plated against the crisis" and his +6.5% GDP forecast for 2009?

• S&P for giving the country invetsment grade and justifying its decision with talk of the "vibrant internal economy"...oh is that manufacturing down 15% again?

• The idiots that actually thought García would do a good job this time?

No, most likely the biggest idiots are the ones that still believe anything this government say, buy into the "we're still growing" tosh and nonsense and even go for the "we'll be fine in 2010" malarkey.

Aha! Peru's Growth Miracle Explained

Aaaah, it all makes sense now. No wonder Peru says it's growing by XpointX% per year when the number of people that suffer from calorific insufficiency (an official measure that shows people don't have enough to eat) has risen from 29% to 32% in the last two years. All this growth is due to the APRA party's favourite source of funding! According to the head of the fight against drugs in Peru in this report from AFP (Translated)

Narcotrafficking a Twenty Two Billion Dollar Business in Peru, 17% of The Country GDP

Narcotrafficking in Peru generates profits of U$22Bn (17% of country GDP), an increase of between U$3Bn and U$4Bn in the last five years, the Peru anti-drug czar, Rómulo Pizarro said Wednesday.

This surge is due to the increase in consumption and demand pressure, most of all from the European market, said Pizarro, head of the National Commission for Development and Life Without Drugs (DEVIDA)

"Five years ago this figure was calculated at U$18Bn, that is to say that we're talking of an approximate increase of between U$3Bn and U$4Bn." CONTINUES HERE

Peru's GDP for 2009 and the IKN prediction: How are we doing so far?

Back on April 16th I published this note which included this chart.

The chart shows my forecasts for monthly GDP (yellow) and for the evolution of annual GDP (red) in Peru for 2009. So for May 2009 I put my forecast at 5.66% for the trailing yearly GDP rate.

Now here's a chart ripped from this page in yesterday's 'La Republica' which has the yearly trailing numbers so far this year (May figures came out this week, remember). I've just changed the labels into English for easy reading.

Oh look, yearly trailing GDP is now at 5.65%, just one one-hundreth of a percent different than my forecast.

Autographs available on request. Pisco sours served. The end.

Peru: Downward GDP revisions coming thick and fast

Don't say you haven't been warned.

Now be honest with me, have a good close look at that chart above and ask yourself whether you can see a pattern beginning to appear :-). Follow the bouncing ball, people;

• November 2008: President Twobreakfasts tell the annual Peru bizpeople's conference that 2009 growth will be 6.5% and that the country's growth is "armour-plated" against the world financial crisis.

• January 2009: The Peruvian Central Bank revises their growth forecast downwards to 6%.

• Later in January 2009: Yehude Simon the first official voice to say that GDP growth will be 5% in 2009. The rest soon follow.

• March 2009: Peru's Central Bank says that growth will be "a little under 5%" this year.

• April 2009: CEPAL calls Peru GDP growth at 3.5% for 2009.

Remember Otto's prediction is 2.25% for 2009 and that smarter people than I are calling for 0% growth. Nuff said. DYODD and don't believe the BS they feed you.

Related Posts
Peru: The first of many downward revisions (Jan 10th 2009)
Chart of the day (January 15th, 2009)

Chart of the day........

.......records the rapid evolution of Peru's GDP growth forecasts.

• On November 9th in the CADE conference (Peru's biggest gathering of muckety-mucks, as Mickey Fulp calls the high falutin' bizpeople) President Twobreakfasts received warm applause and love for stating that Peru GDP would grow 6.5% in 2009. Otto laughed his tragic laugh.

• Last week (Jan 8th to be exact) Peru's central bank stated that GDP growth would be 6.0% in 2009. Otto laughed his tragic laugh.

• This morning, Peru's newspaper of record El Comercio (mediocre though it may be, it's the "serious" one) has Prime Minister Yehude Simon saying that 2009 GDP growth will be "between 4% and 5%" (so I'm being generous on the chart, really).

Otto's still laughing at South America's worst government (that beats out fierce competition, too).