Ok, scrub half that last post; this is an attempted coup

And it's being orchestrated by Lucio Guitierrez, the President of Ecuador betwen 2003 and 2005 who was ousted due to a popular uprising. Not only is Lucio Guitierrez an ex-Prez, he's a retired army colonel and the head of the opposition Sociedad Patriotica party. He's also been vociferous in his opposition in the last few days, having blasted him from the cozy surrounding of Miami (where else?) last week.

Today, speaking from Brasilia, Guitierrez called for the dissolution of parliament and a new election "to avoid bloodshed". And thus his tips his hand. Also, his lawyer was spotted as one of the crowd of officers that stormed and cut off the transmission of Ecuador's State TV channel tonight., which is what you call a  dead giveaway in this game. Here below is the translated money quote from Guitierrez, meanwhile Correa has just said he'll either leave the hospital where's he's holed up "as President or as a cadaver". He has a good turn of phrase, gotta be said.

"(New elections) could be the constitutional solution to avoid the possibility of bloodshed in the country", said Guitierrez.

UBS is a bunch of know-nothings on Ecuador

The other day I said that UBS had been calling Mexico well. Unfortunately, UBS is as patchy on LatAm as the rest of them and just because they show a bit of smarts in one corner doesn't mean they can be trusted in another. Take for example this report dated March 24th that starts.....

"Ecuador will announce a restructuring of its defaulted debt this week, UBS AG said."

...... and compare it to this report dated March 28th that starts....

"Ecuador will unveil detailed plans on April 20 for restructuring its $3.2 billion in defaulted international debt, President Rafael Correa said."

Moral of the story: Just because you wear a suit and get a monthly paycheck for following LatAm affairs it doesn't mean you're not a dumbass. But fear not, because in the end Jesus loves us all.