Argentina reshuffles

Boudouuuuu!

If your government was soundly whipped at the polls as Argentina's has recently been whipped, you'd replace a bunch of ministers too. However Klishtina has decided that the best way to cope with the rejection of her policies is to simply ignore that it happened and reshuffle one set of ultra-Kircherists with another.

So farewell, then, to Carlos Fernandez, the (now ex) FinMin that nobody even noticed was there. And farewell, then, to Sergio Massa, the (now ex) cabinet chief who was brought in from his mayorial-type role in the Tigre region (North of BsAs) because he'd been doing a great job and was a breath of fresh air and would lead ministers in a new direc.....etc....errrrr...it didn't happen, ok?

The new FinMin is a certain Amado Boudou (a last name that makes Francophones titter), party loyalist who was having fun at ANSES (the social security people) and was basically next in line anyway. He now gets to play at big numbers and DON'T TOUCH THOSE DIALS! until 2011 when it's all over for this team. So stfu and think about the pension at the end of the period, Amado. As for cabinet chief, ultra-K of all ultra-Ks Anibal Fernandez has got the job, moving over from the Justice Ministry. A stuffed suit named Julio Alak, who was in charge of the newly nationalized Aerolineas Argentinas until yesterday, is now the Justice Dude.

The bottom line is that this is the cabinet reshuffle of a dead duck administration. Nothing has changed and nothing will change due to yesterday's botox injections and new shades of eyeliner. We now enter The Long Dark Teatime of the Soul as regards Argentine politics, so wake me up when the 2011 Pres election campaigning starts.

Argentina: the fatter the better

Maradona, patriotic citizen

First it was Lula in December exhorting his fellow countrymen to keep spending and save the economy. Then no less a bunch of idiots as Goldman Sachs said that "BRIC shoppers will rescue the world". Now it's Argentina's turn to jump on the silliest of all 'beat the recession' arguments.

Maradona, traitor to his homeland

Today Klishtina's Kabinet Chief Sergio Massa urged his people ever onward and upward in the struggle to spend money. Massa asked his fellow boludos "to consume to allow the Argentine economy to maintain its virtuous circle" while at the same time asking for "rationality" with the upcoming round of 2009 salary negotiations. He continued with, "Let the people consume and let the businessman keep generating products that the market consumes."

So interestingly, this means by logical conclusion that rampant inflation is good for Argentina as it will make sure people keep spending their Pesos as soon as the monthly paycheck arrives. It takes an Argentine economist to point out where the rest of the world has been going wrong all this time, doesn't it?

It also means that fat bastards should eat as much as possible, which will go down well in the only country I know where joggers smoke and eat hotdogs at the same time as running (and if you've seen a dozen porteños attack a parrillada you know just how impressive their capabilities are in the eating sphere when they actually sit down and get serious). It also has the side effect of keeping heart surgeons and undertakers in business, but let's not dwell on that.

Argentina: The Big Bicycle

In Argentina they have a slang verb; "bicicletear". It literally means "to bicycle" but on the it street means to put off paying someone for the longest amount of time possible, an art perfected by generations of Argentines that is now being put to good use by the Klishtina government. In fact, October 2008 could mark the start of the biggest bicycle in recorded history.

It's all about the defaulted debt, and even though I really don't like to say 'I told you so' on this one......well.....how can I put this? Hmmmmmm...yeah....

I TOLD YOU SO.

When the debt swap at a significant haircut was annoucned by Klishtina in New York (oh how convenient...all those tough questions that didn't need answering on her US jaunt) I was already pretty incredulous about it. Then suddenly on October 8th your vigilant Otto posted on a press conference in which the gov't said (via Interior Minister Randazzo):

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"... the gov't was reconsidering the Paris Club payback, and the operation may be indefinitely delayed due to "unpredictable" nature of the financial crisis. In the words of Randazzo (translation Otto):

"At the moment it's something we are analyzing. We have made a commitment and commitment are to be fulfilled. In any case, we are negotiating with the Paris Club to determine exactly what is the debt and how it is to be paid."

If you're not aware, "negotiating" in LatAm politikspeak means "drag this sucker out as long as possible".

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You thinkthe Paris  Club debt and the default swap are different stories? Think again. Cut to today, and the report in Critica headlined "The Opening of the Debt Swap Has No Date (Timing)".

At today's presser, Cabinet Chief Sergio Massa was the talking head. This is one of the classic delaying tactics already showing its head; keep changing the mouthpiece, then come time later they have the "I didn't say that! Who said that? That can't be true! Hmmm, I'll have to consult with my colleague on this, it seems..." stalling tactic to fall back on. But anyway, Massa today started by saying the same thing as Randazzo, namely that Argentina would meet with its obligations on all matters of debt (ah how nice). But then he said;

• Argentina would "start the process working for when Argentina believes it to be convenient."

• The operation would be complex because the debt "is being held by a lot more hands" than before (he said that twice, in fact).

• But this one is my favourite; "We're not stupid. We'll look at the situation and we're going to choose the timing that most suits the country. We have to be alert, with sights set on production, employment and industrial activity."

This has all the makings of one very large bicycle, people. Massa said the payment process would start before Christmas. Otto says 'seeing is believing'. So for those holding the defaulted bonds and thinking they're in for a quick payout, here's my translation of all the things Massa said today in just four words: DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH.