An eye on the insiders

Three inside trades that caught the eye of this humble scribe while perusing CadInsider this morning.

First up Evolving Gold (EVG.v), the company with good (though at depth) drill results coming from its USA project. Sadly, it's also pumped by über-BSmerchant Peter Grandich, which is enough reason in itself to avoid this stock forever, good rock or not. And lo and behold! we got insiders bailing right now, too:

Evolving Gold Corp. (EVG)						As of March 25th, 2010
Filing Date	Transaction Date	Insider Name	Ownership Type	Securities	Nature of transaction	# or value acquired or disposed of	Unit Price
Mar 25/10	Mar 19/10	Bick, Robert	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-48,500	$0.960
Mar 25/10	Mar 18/10	Bick, Robert	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-42,500	$0.970
Mar 25/10	Mar 18/10	Bick, Robert	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-7,500	$0.980
Mar 25/10	Mar 17/10	Bick, Robert	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-2,000	$0.980
Mar 25/10	Mar 17/10	Bick, Robert	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-5,000	$0.960
Mar 25/10	Mar 17/10	Bick, Robert	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-6,000	$0.980
Mar 25/10	Mar 16/10	Bick, Robert	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-18,000	$0.980
Mar 25/10	Mar 16/10	Bick, Robert	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	51 - Exercise of options	129,500	$0.230
Mar 25/10	Mar 16/10	Bick, Robert	Direct Ownership	Options	51 - Exercise of options	-129,500	$0.230

All at the same time that Grandich pumps this stock to his sheep. Whatever can it mean?

Next we check out Baja Mining (BAJ.to) which is also flashing a "management think it's a good place to lighten" signal via this filed trade:

Baja Mining Corp. (BAJ)						As of March 25th, 2010
Filing Date	Transaction Date	Insider Name	Ownership Type	Securities	Nature of transaction	# or value acquired or disposed of	Unit Price
Mar 25/10	Mar 24/10	Glanville, Ross Owen	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-120,000	$0.750
Mar 25/10	Mar 24/10	Glanville, Ross Owen	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	51 - Exercise of options	210,000	$0.350
Mar 25/10	Mar 24/10	Glanville, Ross Owen	Direct Ownership	Options	51 - Exercise of options	-210,000	$0.350

Finally, we have a bit of positive flipside: Apoquindo Minerals' (AQM.v) have a management team that are putting money where their mouths are. This is healthy:

Apoquindo Minerals Inc. (AQM)						As of March 25th, 2010
Filing Date	Transaction Date	Insider Name	Ownership Type	Securities	Nature of transaction	# or value acquired or disposed of	Unit Price
Mar 25/10	Mar 17/10	Lopez, Cesar	Direct Ownership	Warrants	11 - Acquisition carried out privately	100,000	$1.000
Mar 25/10	Mar 17/10	Lopez, Cesar	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	11 - Acquisition carried out privately	200,000	$0.850
Mar 25/10	Mar 17/10	Villarzu Rodhe, Juan Rodolfo	Indirect Ownership	Warrants	11 - Acquisition carried out privately	59,941	$1.000
Mar 25/10	Jan 07/08	Villarzu Rodhe, Juan Rodolfo	Indirect Ownership	Warrants	00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report
Mar 25/10	Mar 17/10	Villarzu Rodhe, Juan Rodolfo	Indirect Ownership	Warrants	11 - Acquisition carried out privately	59,941	$1.000
Mar 25/10	Jan 07/08	Villarzu Rodhe, Juan Rodolfo	Indirect Ownership	Warrants	00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report
Mar 25/10	Mar 17/10	Villarzu Rodhe, Juan Rodolfo	Indirect Ownership	Common Shares	11 - Acquisition carried out privately	119,882	$0.850
Mar 25/10	Jan 07/08	Villarzu Rodhe, Juan Rodolfo	Indirect Ownership	Common Shares	00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report
Mar 25/10	Mar 17/10	Villarzu Rodhe, Juan Rodolfo	Indirect Ownership	Common Shares	11 - Acquisition carried out privately	119,882	$0.850
Mar 25/10	Jan 07/08	Villarzu Rodhe, Juan Rodolfo	Indirect Ownership	Common Shares	00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report

Also, those with a memory for mining names will note the heavy-hitters that run AQM.v.

Disclosure: no position in any stock, though BAJ.to and AQM.v are part of the IKN Weekly 'Copper Basket' of junior exploration stage copper companies.

The 0.74% copper poker head-to-head

Two junior exploration copper juniors sent out news releases within minutes of each other this morning. Bizarrely, both drill holes returned the exact same amount of copper at 0.74%. Plenty of other coincidences too, as both are working Peru and both found good mineralization. But one was simply "good" while the other....well, click through and have a look for yourself. So it made me think of this:

Apoquindo (AQM.v): "I bet 177m of 0.74% copper."

Antares (ANM.v): "I'll see that and raise you to 750.65m of 0.74% copper."

Apoquindo: "Fold."

Morning Mailbag: Apoquindo, Chariot and Doug Casey

"Well, call me crazy, but it is my philosophy that in
order to be successful one must project
an image of success at all times."
Buddy King, American Beauty (1999)

I haven't done one of these posts in a while, so as three worthy candidates have come my way in the last few hours here we go.

Apoquindo (AQM.v): After this post on Tuesday IKN received the following comment from the management at AQM.v yesterday via the comments section, so by way of 'right to reply' here it is in an open post so that more people see it. For the record I agree totally about Villarzú's integrity and his good standing in the copper industry. All I'm saying is that his price predictions on spot copper suck, the puff-piece interview with that copper-ignorant and backpocket-biased Andrew Mickey dude is way too suspect to be taken seriously and the IR company in the middle of the whole thing needs to take a long, hard look at how it's doing its job if it wants to build a worthy following instead of just court the fickle, popular vote. I mean, check the share price action:
So here's the reply from AQM.v. Fair dos to Ms. Ashton, she defends the company corner well.

I want to defend Juan Villarzu as a person with great integrity. You may disagree with his views, but they are genuinely held. I am a director of Apoquindo Minerals, Stephanie Ashton, and the title King of Copper was not made by Mr. Villarzu, he would not call himself that. Basically, to further explain his view, Mr. Villarzu believes that the current crisis is fundamentally a crisis in confidence, and that regaining confidence could change the economic situation very rapidly. He also says that the current crisis differs from other crisis in history, since never before has there been such a massive, concerted and rapid response by governments and central banks worldwide, and this will cause the recovery to be quicker. He believes in copper growth in China, and that alone will mean enough demand for copper, along with production cutbacks, that will result in a higher copper price. Yes Kin Communications is the IR company for Apoquindo, and I do not see what is the problem with the IR company doing its job. Most people disagree with Juan Villarzu´s opinion, as evidenced by the Cru conference presentations currently occurring in Santiago, but he is not alone in view, and it is genuinely held. He is a believer in the metal, as we all are here at Apoquindo.

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Chariot Resources (CHD.to): CHD.to has been a pain in the side of Tom Meyer, analyst at Raymond James, as he rode his pick down through 2008. However Meyer deserves credit for sticking to his guns (though lowering his prices target by an order of magnitude) because 1) Meyer is very good at working the numbers and seeing underlying value and 2) copper has been coming back some and there is light at the end of this tunnel. So with that context, here's Meyer's latest update on the company, out this morning.

Chariot Resources Ltd. CHD-TSX
8th Delay in the Feasibility Study - The End Must Be Near
Tom Meyer, CFA, P.Eng

RATING STRONG BUY 1
Target Price (6-12 mths) (C$) 0.50
Closing Price (C$) 0.24
Total Return to Target 108%

Event
Chariot announced, before market open on Mar-31-09, yet another delay in the release of the feasibility study on its 70%-owned Mina Justa Cu project in Peru. The study is now planned to be released on or before Apr-23-09 (prev. 1Q09).

Action
We reiterate our STRONG BUY rating and are increasing our target to C$0.50 (prev. C$0.40). In anticipation of the "almost done" feasibility study and our view of possible M&A activity as the miner's balance sheets improve with the rebound in commodity prices, we have increased our target P/NAV multiple to 0.30x (prev. 0.20x). This increase more than offsets our model adjustments to account for the added delay and capex and opex uncertainty (we biased our numbers slightly higher). All told, we have reduced our NAV estimate to C$1.65 (prev. C$1.81).

Analysis
- Capex/Opex uncertainty. Similar to the explanation given for the previous delay, management indicated that it is currently in the process of estimating the most up-to-date capital and operating costs. We estimate an initial capital cost of US$490 mln and a life of mine average operating cost of US$0.77/lb [opex includes sulphide flotation mill (additional capex of US$135 mln) starting in year 3 of project life].

- Mine planning parameters. According to management, the feasibility study envisions processing 12 million tonnes per year with an average grade of 0.58% Cu through the vat leach plant to produce up to ~60,000 tonnes per year of cathode and processing 5 million tonnes per year with an average grade of 1.25% Cu through a concentrator to produce up to 56,000 tonnes per year of copper in concentrate. We estimate first production in 2H12.

- Liquidity. According to the press release, Chariot has ~C$19 million in cash and is responsible for funding 70% of the project's US$8 million budget in 2009.

Valuation
CHD shares trade at a P/NAV of 0.15x versus its peer group weighted average at 0.62x. Our target price is based on a 0.30x P/NAV multiple and is in-line with risk and liquidity-adjusted historic multiples for advanced projects

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Doug Casey: Following yesterday's TradingPost, here's a mail from a regular reader, initial "R". Good to see that the smarter among you consider him, at best, a stage along the way.

I've developed a real dislike for that guy (Casey). I hate to admit I was a subscriber for a while. His entire operation is one big marketing drive. You sign up for one service, they tout another. And another. And another. Too many layers, and way too much appeal to elitism. Way too little in the way of performance too. He buries you in more picks than you could ever afford, then selectively touts the winners while tap dancing the burning match routine when his losers blow up.

And what's with the Salta crap? Like I'm gonna sip wine and play polo all day with Mr. Risty while the rest of the world burns? **** that. I hope he gets overrun by Marxist guerillas.

The final straw was when he hired some so-called ex-CIA spooks to snoop for poop. As if. Show us your badges hosers. Don't got any? Thought so. Oh, and the hijacking of ERIS, as if he had clue one what Anton Wilson was about. That really irritates me. He and Tony Robbins should get together.

King of Copper? The flip side of Juan Villarzú's recent interview

Gloucester: The trick of that voice I do well remember; Is't not the King?
Lear: Ay, every inch a king!

Shakespeare, King Lear, Act 4, scene 6

Today, when the third different reader mailed me with the link to an interview with "The King of Copper" featuring ex-Codelco headman Juan Villarzú pumping the metal to $2.00 or $2.50 or $3.00 per pound (I'm still not sure which one really is his target), the slightly annoying BS being served up for the masses just got under my skin once too often. Here we go with the antidote:

• The interview in question was conducted by a certain Andrew Mickey of Q1 publishing (and you're not alone, as I've never heard of the dude or his company, either).

• Mr. Mickey interviews Villarzú, the chairman of Apoquindo Minerals (AQM.v) and ex-head of Codelco.

• AQM.v is a junior copper miner in Chile, so has everything to gain from a higher copper price. Mr. Mickey discloses that he is long AQM.v.

• However, Mr. Mickey also writes that SQM is a "leading copper producer" and waxes lyrical about how it has benefitted from the recent Cu rebound. This is strange, as SQM is the well-known and very large Chilean potash/iodine/lithium company. Not copper. Not even close to copper.
  

• Meanwhile, in the interview itself Villarzú informs us of his call for copper. JV says, "I think copper will be at $2 by the end of the year, and will be above $2 next year." Villarzu then goes on at length about China demand for copper as the reasons behind his bullishness. Of course, all this is immediately turned into some type of gospel, because Villarzú is "The King Of Copper" and (in the words of Andrew Mickey) "...has an impressive track record many mining executives would envy."

• Today, this press release hits the wires from Kin Communications that repeats in big bold letters that; “I think copper will be at $2 by the end of the year, and will be above $2 next year.” says Juan Villarzu, Former President and CEO of CODELCO Chile, world’s largest copper producer. Kin Communications is the investor relations people for Apoquindo Minerals, by the way, but don't let that worry you.

Well, it's good to know what Villarzú thinks of copper going forward isn't it? Personally I find it a vital piece of information, because when it comes to predicting the price of copper the dude has FREAKIN' AMAZING TRACK RECORD AS A CONTRARY INDICATOR.

• For example, in October 2005 he said that copper prices would drop to U$1.25/lb in 2006. It zoomed to way over $3/lb.
  

• In February 2006 with copper over $2.30/lb, he called for it to drop to $1.50 to $1.70/lb in 2006, citing Chinese demand reasons. Copper finished the year averaging $3.06/lb. Oops, not the right call when you're the CEO of the biggest copper company in the world, is it?

• Then the call for $1.00/lb copper in 2007? Nah, that didn't work out very well either, really.

• It was at the same time as these calls that Villarzú "was allowed to step down" at Codelco, being replaced by José Pablo Arellano. Strange coincidence that, isn't it?

Please don't get me wrong, though. I'm not saying that Villarzú is a dummy at copper. He was Pres&CEO of Codelco for nine years and saw the company make significant productivity advances. He was once chairman of the ICA (Intl Copper Assoc) and in his time was even a senior economist at the World Bank.

All I'm saying is that it sucks being named "King of Copper" by a paid hack who owns stock in Villarzú's junior copper company but clearly doesn't know Jack about the copper industry.

Then getting this obviously biased and uninformed puff-piece stuffed in my face from the same company's IR dep't and a bunch of people who should turn their own bullshit alarms on sometimes really sucks.

And Juan Villarzú's track record in calling spot copper really, really sucks.

DYODD.