Macquarie's 2011 PM exploration junior picks

It's PDAC-eve and unsurprisingly we're already being bombarded with brokerage reports and umpteen semi-empty company NRs (and it's only going to get worse on Monday, folks). Here's an example and  so thanks to kind reader 'D', here's the link to the PDF published by Macquarie yesterday featuring the following names

• Auryx Gold (AYX.to) 
• Colossus Minerals (CSI.to) 
• Eastmain Resources (ER.to) 
• Extorre Gold Mines (XG.to) 
• International Tower Hill (ITH.to) (THM)
• Rainy River Resources (RR.v) 
• Tahoe Resources (THO.to)
• Virginia Mines (VGQ.to)
• ATAC Resources (ATC.v)

But keep an eye on the recos, because Macquarie has called eight of those as long opportunties and one of them as a short opportunity. Go read the paper to find out which is which. For what it's worth*, I agree with Macquarie on four of the calls, I'm 'meh' on two of them and disagree with three....but WTFDIK anyway?

PS: By the way this is a 184 page report with plenty of pretty pictures too, so give it time on the download, yeah?

*not a lot

CIBC goes full bull on gold and the miners

Here's the link to the download of CIBC's latest precious metals compendium, tons of upgrades and picks going higher (or so the Barry Cooper dude says). Here's the cover sheet to give you an idea:

CIBC WORLD MARKETS INC.

Precious Metals

Barry Cooper

Debt Drives Demand For Precious Metals As Currencies Devalue

The supply of money is beating out the supply of gold, driving prices higher. This trend will likely continue amongst several major countries of the world for the foreseeable future. Those regions where the dilemma is less pronounced will likely purchase gold to insulate themselves from trouble.

We are raising our metals forecast to $1,225, $1,600 and 1,700/oz. for gold and $20, $28 and $30/oz. for silver for 2010, 2011 and 2012 respectively. Although we have not changed our long-term gold price forecast of $1,200/oz. we have increased it for silver to $20/oz from $15/oz.

Our top picks include KGI, OSK, EGO, PAAS, CGA, AGI, FRG, ARZ, SMF, ORE and IAG. Our bias is towards smaller names which represent combinations of growth, value and burgeoning production from new sources. For investors seeking less risk, we recommend ABX for higher liquidity.

We have tempered our view on trading multiples, expecting compression to continue as commodity prices rise. The relationship for gold price movements has been 0.5 to 1 point drop in CF multiples for every $100/oz increase in bullion. Silver relationships however are more complex.

Here's the link to the 109 page CIBC tome of fundamentalation once again, just in case. It's a very good report, this one.

The 0.74% copper poker head-to-head

Two junior exploration copper juniors sent out news releases within minutes of each other this morning. Bizarrely, both drill holes returned the exact same amount of copper at 0.74%. Plenty of other coincidences too, as both are working Peru and both found good mineralization. But one was simply "good" while the other....well, click through and have a look for yourself. So it made me think of this:

Apoquindo (AQM.v): "I bet 177m of 0.74% copper."

Antares (ANM.v): "I'll see that and raise you to 750.65m of 0.74% copper."

Apoquindo: "Fold."

Chart of the day is.....

.....the Year To Date Small Silvers Sweepstakes (new new update)

We're into the last month, the home stretch and all that jazz, so we'll crank up the frequency of our superduper silver sweepstakes til the end of the year (the last update was here on Nov 23). Who's gonna be champeeeen?

(click to enlarge)

Endeavour Silver (EDR.to) is still out there as numero uno, but it's now getting pressured for the top spot by Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) which has put on a great spurt in the last week or so. Fortuna (FVI.v) still looking solid in the bronze medal position.

Down amongst the also-rans, MAG Silver (MAG.to) (MVG) has made up quite a bit of ground in the last couple of weeks with a 30% upmove on good volumes. I have a sneaking suspicion that MAG may still beat out our benchmark, the silver bullion ETF (SLV), once December 31st comes around.

ECU Silver (ECU.to) = Half priced GATA membership next year.

The Year-To-Date Small Silvers Sweepstakes (new update)

It's been a couple of weeks since the last update, so let's see how things are developing.

(click to enlarge)

Endeavour Silver (EDR.to) has had the most magnificent month, moving up a full 100% (benchmarked to its Jan 1st price) so far this November. Top job, guys.

Personal fave Fortuna Silver (FVI.v) is now a firm second place, also having a good time this month. Great Panther (GPR.to) slips from 3rd to 4th and the ones below are basically in the same position as before. Wonderdog ECU Silver (ECU.to) is actually net negative for 2009 again...mindblowing on one level, but check the books and it's perfectly logical, really. Half price GATA next year looking evermore likely.

The Year-To-Date Small Silver Sweepstakes: Update

Here's the second installment, first was on October 23rd here.

click to enlarge

After we ran it last time, I was asked by a reader to add Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) to the list cos said reader had done well on the stock this year. Yup can do, and BCM grabs 2nd place right off the bat. If there are any other suggestions for the next time we run this chart, just drop me a mail...happy to oblige (as long as the miner fits the category).

Leader for the prize is now Endeavour Silver (EDR.to) which has had a fine November so far. You go girl. GPR.to and FVI.v are up there battling hard. Coming up the rear (if you'll pardon the expression) is MAG Silver (MAG.to) and, of course, the dog of them all ECU Silver (ECU.to), though even that scam stock has managed to get into a YTD net positive situation thanks to the recent hysteria. It won't last.

IKN presents: "The Year-To-Date Small Silver Miner Sweepstakes"

Here's a bit of nonsense that'll keep us occupied til the end of the year. This chart shows the comparative performance of "the small silvers", i.e. a peer group of companies smaller than Pan American or Fresnillo that are churning out Ag production right now. By way of a benchmark, the silver bullion ETF (SLV) is also included.

click to enlarge

Right now top spot is taken by US Silver (USA.v) (and I know one certain reader who'll be very happy about that), with Endeavour (EDR.to) in second place and Fortuna (FVI.v) filling the final place on the podium. But the final final winner will be the company in first place on December 31st 2009 and we can watch this chart develop in the weeks left of 2009.

Faites vos jeux, mesdames et messieurs.

Sulliden (SUE.to): A special message to one regular reader

This post goes out to one certain person who wrote to me on September 4th concerning Sulliden (SUE.to), received my reply and then told me about his friend who was (as he put it) "in love with SUE".

The message is: LOVE IS BLIND

Hey, I sure hope your friend didn't take a slice of that 80c bought deal led by Cormark.....

dyodd, dude.

Ecometals (EC.v) bullshits the market again

Here's a link to the latest from the BS merchants at Ecometals (EC.v) that hit the wires a couple of minutes ago, going by the snappy title of "Ecometals announces final EMP approval prior to drilling at at its Rio Zarza gold project in Ecuador".

When you read the headline it looks like Ecometals actually has permission to drill, doesn't it? But read on and you see that:

Ecometals Limited is pleased to announce receipt of the final approval resolution for its Environmental Management Plan and also the renewal of its Environmental Bond. This approval is the last major step ahead of consent to commence our drilling at Rio Zarza. There will now follow, in conjunction with the Ministry of Mines and the local communities within our area of influence, a Community Relations diffusion process to present and explain the project. We understand one of the major mining companies in the area completed this process earlier this month and is now waiting final permit approval from the Ministry of Mines. Since we are both dealing with the same communities, we are hopeful of a successful outcome. A contract has now been negotiated with drill contractors and site preparations and logistics have been finalised.

Now, what I suggest you do is read it while moving your lips, or maybe even read it out loud to the dog or the cat or something. They're pleased to announce they have the final major thing they need BEFORE they get the approval of the final REALLY major thing they need! ROFL! And now they have to go through weeks and weeks, maybe months of talks with locals before they may or may not get the chance to drill! Or in other words:

WE STILL CAN'T DRILL ZARZA, SUCKAZ!

This is the same company that said it'll be all done and dusted by the end of August, remember? Of course the share price took off like a rocket on this "news" thanks to the brainless momo runners that still believe these serial BS merchants. We'll now see the the same pump and dump as we saw last time and then the shorn sheep will blame people like me for telling them the truth.

As a total utter non-sequitur that has nothing to do with anything else in this post, why on earth did this little poker ditty just spring to mind?

If you sit at a poker table and can't see who the patsy* is in the first 15 minutes, it's you.

UPDATE: SIXTY-SEVEN CENTS A SHARE!!! LMFAO!!!

*Did i write pasty? Oh lordy, a five year old girl knows better than that

Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax) and its simple message:

DON'T.......TOUCH.......THAT.......DIAL

Silver juniors update

Here's a chart showing the year-to-date performance of Fortuna Silver (FVI.v), First Majestic (FR.to), MAG Silver (MAG.to) and ECU Silver (ECU.to).

• The good news is that Otto has been telling you to buy FVI.v all year (as well as telling you to avoid MAG.to and ECU.to like the plague, with "not like so good" mentions of FR.to along the way, too).

• The better news is that people are actually beginning to believe me on this one. Y'see, I really wasn't joking, was I?

• The best news is that (as IKN Weekly subscribers now know after last week's edition) there's plenty more upside left in FVI.v and we now have a new, improved price target.

Stop buying dogs and get wise on LatAm junior miners. Subscribe to The IKN Weekly. End of blatant promo. Have....Nice....Day.

Mister McEwen joins Mr. Dow, Mr. Jones, Mr. Standard and Mr. Poors

Here's an interesting and totally, utterly un-egoistic development. Rob McEwen (yeah, him) has put his name to a new index of exploration-stage junior gold miners. Humbly called "The McEwen Junior Gold Index", the idea is to track a basket of explorers on a weighted basis. Ther minimum market cap for inclusion is an accessible $50m and it's done in loonies.

Amazingly enough two McEwen companies make the list, Rimfire and US Gold (that perhaps should be re-named Mexico Silver, but that's just me). Anyway, here's the link where you get the full list of companies included and the read-more-about-it page, too. So go check it out. All in all not a bad initiative, name or no name.


UPDATE: Yes, I confused Rimfire and Rubicon....thanks for the mails, folks. Just goes to show the normal Otto ignorance ex-LatAm (also goes to show I should DD a bit). BTW, McEwen also holds chunks of GUY.to which is on the list.

MAG Silver: The inside selling goes on

Megaw photographed while not selling things (for a change)

Hey wow! Not content with dumping 46k of his stock on the market between May 12th and May 21st, since we last updated on MAG Silver (MAG.to) (MVG) and the high level of insider-selling activity on May 22nd one of the chief offenders, Peter K. Megaw, director of MAG.to and described in his biog as " a well-known individual in the Mexican mining industry" (I shite thee not, kind reader) has found time to dump another 23,000 shares on to the market at U$5.50 or so.

Why is MAG Silver so keen on telling the world that their stock is undervalued and at the same time the people running the company just keep on selling their stock? Inquiring minds would like to know......

Troy Resources (TRY.to) and house parties

When people get invited to house parties, be the event a dinner, or cocktails, or a birthday or just getting a group of friends together to watch something on TV, some people prefer to arrive late and make an entrance where they get seen by everyone.

Not me; I'm the type of dude who likes to arrive first. It's nice that way cos you get to check out the house, see the titles on the bookshelf, get to talk to the host while s/he's not busy and fussing around. There are always all sorts of things to chat about and as the host invited you over they tend to be cool people, too. Then later when the main body of guests arrive I can help out by holding open the door and ushering them into a place with a good, positive atmosphere. That's my idea of a great way to start a party.

For the record I'm long TRY.to at 84c bought in January. Also for the record, thanks are due to Claude Cormier of Ormetal for giving me the headsup and the "Hey check this one out, Otto" on the company. Nice spot, dude.

Mining PRS and the Ottotrans™: Part 8

It's that time again when we unravel the mysteries of the junior miners by making common sense the guff published in the news releases. Today's example is this PR dated 21st May (yesterday) from our old friends ECU Silver, miners of investors' pockets, a lot of zinc and a little bit of silver in Mexico. So with further ado.........

Here's what they said....

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - May 21, 2009) - ECU Silver Mining Inc. (TSX:ECU - News) is pleased to report that it has poured a total of 78 silver/gold dore bars in the past month.

The silver/gold dore bars have a total weight of 1,575 kilograms (kg). Assays indicate that these dore bars contain a total of 626 ounces of gold and 30,544 ounces of silver.

We have also poured an additional 13 bars this week, assays will be known later, and expect to pour 300 to 450 kg of dore per week, depending on silver assays of the feed.

We have sent samples of our dore to different interested buyers and are in the process of reviewing several term sheets from these potential buyers of our dore bars. The interest in our dore product has been very strong and we have so far received offers from seven different buyers. We have sold 730 kg of dore bars to date and have a planned shipment of another 1,100 kg for later this week to two separate buyers.

The oxide mill continues to operate very well. Over the next few weeks, we plan on increasing the throughput of our gold and silver recovery oxide plant to a rate of 500 tonnes per day.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

....and here's what it means:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - May 21, 2009) - ECU Silver Mining Inc. (TSX:ECU - News) is desperate to report anything that might suggest they are actually living up to their name and mining stuff by wasting yet another PR to say it has poured a total of 78 silver/gold dore bars in the past month.

The silver/gold dore bars have a total weight of 1,575 kilograms (kg). Sounds impressive, huh? Assays indicate that these dore bars contain a total of 626 ounces of gold and 30,544 ounces of silver. We don't do the math for you to get you playing around on your calculator, but it's about $1m worth of metal. But what we don't mention is that we're still a development stage company and if we want to really be a producer we still need to spend a boatload of your cash to make all our inferred resources into measured and indicated, so if you're actually stupid enough to think we're going to make a profit any time soon you need to get out more.

We have also poured an additional 13 bars this week, assays will be known later, and expect to pour 300 to 450 kg of dore per week, depending on silver assays of the feed. We still don't know what they are despite having faffed around for gawd knows how many years, but let's be hoping that the head grades continue...fingers crossed!

We have sent samples of our dore to different interested buyers and are in the process of reviewing several term sheets from these potential buyers of our dore bars. We are also pleased to report that lunch will be served at 1pm, that the toilets are being cleaned regularly and that there's a plentiful supply of paper for each toilet cubicle that should last until the end of the month. Administration reports a successful procurement of paperclips that should arrive by courier any day now.

The oxide mill that we suddenly bought with your money while handing out long term, very low interest loans to management continues to operate very well, because if it didn't we'd never mention it to you. Over the next few weeks, we plan on increasing the throughput of our gold and silver recovery oxide plant to a rate of 500 tonnes per day, but as we're such bullshitters you never know if it'll happen, eh? But don't worry, we'll be publishing another inane "oh please look at me!!" PR on the subject especially designed for retail saps in the very near future

Previous Ottotrans™ available here

Troy Resources

Check out the chart above, that shows Troy Resources in its Australian listing (TRY.ax). As anyone who reads this blog for more than a week should know,TRY.to/TRY.ax is my idea of a great investment this year, so it's interesting to see the better traded TRY.ax listing at A$1.41 as at last night's close, a figure that tests both yearly highs and a three month old trading channel.

Troy is still my top pick for 2009. Disclosure: I own and I'm 42% up on the position...so far. DYODD, dude.

ECH and the danger of spreading too thinly

More semi-random musings.

So as sit back and watch the bullish action continue (let's be clear here..I still say this is a bullish relief rally in the middle of a nasty bear market) and with currencies on my mind, I checked back to see how longer-term pick ECH (the Chilean ETF) has been getting on. Here's the chart....

...and here's the article dated Feb 26th and entitled "ECH: the easy way to play Chile's currency revival". So another 20%+ winner and I'm suddenly wonderful and in the green on another fabbo LatAm call...hey isn't life great and I love me and all that crap. Yep, you got it, there's a very large and stupid ego trap on offer here. The point is that I could have recommended 75 stocks and here, two months later, rattle off a list of 65 winners and only two losses and oh my gawd what an amazing person I am.

Except I'm not. Because if you start that game you can suddenly find yourself further down the line conveniently forgetting about the crappy calls and shouting from the rooftops about the winners only, especially if you like recommending 50% of the stocks on offer to Joe Public. And you start glancing at stocks before calling them a buy, not investigating them and finding hidden value (or hidden problems)....and that's really not my style.

So what's the point here? I suppose that there are a couple. For one thing:

Any fool looks cool in a bull

For another this humble corner of cyberspace is just one guy, it's not a comprehensive news service. Things like Baja Mining (BAJ.to) slip past, for example (you seen that thing fly these last few days? Wowsers!). I miss a nice snippet of news and catch up to it later. I decide something isn't so interesting (and say nothing) when others think it's big news. After all, I'm still just a dude with a blog here. No pretensions. Just a dude with a blog.

So personally speaking, if I start spreading myself too thinly and reco'ing this, that and the other stock (and claiming mega-analytical success afterwards having just mentioned them once or twice in passing) I don't think there's much point to the exercise. Therefore what I'm going to do, on the stocks side at least, is stick more or less to my tiny corner of LatAm junior miners, keep trying to rootle out quality over quantity and not worry my brain too much about telcos in Argentina, real estate in Brazil or palm oil in Colombia....or even when all mining boats rise on the same tide and the badduns climb just as much as the gooduns. I'm sure you readers can find better places on the interwebnetpipes for all those companies, anyway. DYODD dude.

Colossus (CSI.to): What does Augusto Kishida know that we don't?

Here we go again with insider sales at Colossus Minerals (CSI.to).

Colossus Minerals Inc. (CSI)						As of May 9th, 2009
Filing Date	Transaction Date	Insider Name	Ownership Type	Securities	Nature of transaction	# or value acquired or disposed of	Unit Price
May 09/09	Apr 30/09	Kishida, Augusto	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-500	$2.970
May 09/09	Apr 30/09	Kishida, Augusto	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-200	$2.960
May 09/09	Apr 30/09	Kishida, Augusto	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-5,200	$2.950
May 09/09	Apr 30/09	Kishida, Augusto	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-14,100	$2.900
Apr 24/09	Apr 16/09	Kishida, Augusto	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-20,000	$2.300
Apr 24/09	Apr 16/09	Kishida, Augusto	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-10,000	$2.280
Apr 09/09	Mar 31/09	Kishida, Augusto	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-100	$2.160
Apr 09/09	Mar 31/09	Kishida, Augusto	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-9,900	$2.150
Apr 09/09	Mar 31/09	Kishida, Augusto	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-15,000	$2.100
Apr 09/09	Mar 26/09	Kishida, Augusto	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-5,000	$2.100

Now if the Kishida dude (62 years old, so knows the world well) were some suit or seeder there might be less to worry about. But the guy is VP Exploration! Here's his biog, as per the FT:

Mr. Augusto Kishida serves as Vice President, Exploration of the Colossus Minerals Inc since December 2006; prior to which he was an independent consultant since June 2003; Vice President, Exploration for Black Swan Resources between May 1993 and June 2003. He is Engineer, CREA 1967 M.Sc.U. Federal Bahia, 1979 Ph. D. University of Western Ontario, 1984.

So why is he so, but so keen to cash out on Colossus in 20k blocks of his stock? This guy, after all, is the guy on the ground over there in Brazil (and if he isn't he's not doing justice to the job title). If I were holding CSI.to (which I most definitely am not) I'd be concerned. You concerned?

Oh, by the way, did you notice the name of Kishida's previous company? 'Black Swan Resources'. I presume by now that you understand the concept of Taleb's Black Swan. Kind of a weird coincidence, n'est-ce pas?

Gold Hawk Resources (CGK.v): There's light at the end of the tunnel (literally)

So here's the chart for Gold Hawk Resources (CGK.v) in 2009 to date...

.....and if you were smart or brave enough to get some CGK.v at between 1c and 2c in January (or even at 3c just five weeks ago) the 5.5c to 6c prices being printed these last few days have made for a very nice percentage gain. But what's news at CGK.v and its Coricancha mine?

Well, news is that the government of Peru has finally got its pulgarcito pulled out from its colita and has made progress on the relief tunnel need to be dug into the Tamboraque hill in order to relieve the water damage threat to the now infamous tailings pond. And the good news is that there are even pictures to show the progress. Click this link and you'll see a very nicely put together montage of the work in progress which has made its way 36m into the hillside. The total length needed to be tunneled is 180m and the work is now on schedule to be finished in 3q09 (probably October). But don't take it from me; click the link and see for yourself (once you get there, you need to click the first page again to set the montage rolling).

All in all I'm happy to see things moving at CGK.v and the share price crawl back to something that begins to resemble decency. As for the Peruvian Gov't, once again it has proved that its bureaucracy is a disaster (recall it took a full year to get started on the essential work), but once the ball is rolling the country knows how to do the mining thing.

Related Posts on Gold Hawk here

Troy Resources reports its quarter

On this link you can get your own copy of the quarter end March 2009 report that was released today. Overall its a pleasing report and the market rewarded the Aussie listed stock with a 9.4% increase to A$1.335 (CAD$1.15 approx). Not bad at all considering what happened to gold while Australia was asleep yesterday anjd as gold has managed to climb back above $900 on this side of the world today there's plenty of reason to expet a very decent pop in TRY.to this morning. Here are four points (from many others) that caught my eye in the report:

• The most important positive is the doubleplay that cash costs have dropped and its Australian Sandstone mine is producing competitively.

• Another positive is the reported A$64.8m in cash/bank/bullion deposits. This represents U$46.8m at current forex and means that the new Casposo mine and capex an be paid for out of treasury and there's little reason to expect any dilutive financing going forward.

• Another intriguing bonus is talk of a sale of its Iron Ore to one of two possible Brazilian purchasers. Although I personally am not holding my breath on this one (see today's Chart of the Day) if TRY can do a deal it would be a great cash bonus to the company.

• The major negative in the release is the delays experienced at Andorinhas in opening up the high grade underground extraction. By no means serious, but all the same the company is now behind schedule on that count. TRY now expects to start feeding significant amounts of high grade into the mix beginning June 2009. Let's see if they make that on time this time. TRY reports difficulties in procuring equipment and also power outages. The power problem sould now be a thing of the past as they've invested in back up diesel generators.

As said, those are just a few of the points I picked up and I strongly recommend that you read the full report (on that link above) for yourself. It's my idea of a great investment and I cannot be louder and clearer than that. Great prospects, growth baked in, under the radar and importantly run by honest management that truly put shareholders first and don't just pay lip-service to that angle. I'm long and have been since $0.84 and expect plenty more upside to come. My NOBS report on Troy Resources is still available if you are enough, find details here. However be clear that if you pay $10 all you'll get is plenty more detail and the same reco; "buy" as I'm not trying any hard sell here. I'll leave you with the Australian-listed stock and its performance from last night.