Dilma swears in

Another woman in a world top job. This is good.

UPDATE: Bina got the two best photos from the Dilma inauguration shindig today. They might even resurrect IKN's Kaption Kompetition segment next week, good as they are. Go see.

Welcome to the new Brazil! (just the same as the old Brazil)

At least, that's what Brazilians are expecting.

While the world gasped in shock'n'awe over the 87% approval rating garnered by President Lula in Brazil in his last month of office (e.g. Reuters EngLang report here), your author's eye was caught a little more by another survey response in the very same CNI/Ibope poll. This charts shows....

...what Brazilians expect from the new Dilma Rousseff government that takes over January 1st, with most expecting a pretty smooth continuation of things. And that's probably true about most domestic political affairs, but your humble scribe has the feeling that Dilma is looking to run the macro-economy at a different tack...starting with an attempt to depreciate the Real. We shall see, but we do wish Dilma the best of fortune.

Brazil: The biggest hint yet that Dilma will weaken the Real

The Brazilian Real has lost over 0.5% against the US dollar today, because of this, reported by Mercopress

Brazilian central bank chief steps down from president-elect Rousseff’s team

Brazilian central bank president Henrique Meirelles will not accept any invitation to remain as head of the bank unless president-elect Dilma Rousseff gives him full guarantees of “absolute autonomy” in running the institution. He also rejects the idea of holding on the job during the first quarter of 2011 until a definitive successor is named.

...................

Apparently Meirelles seems uncomfortable with these reports and much less having his name linked to a possible “tampon” action while a successor to his post is nominated. The central bank president said that working with President Lula da Silva he was “never exposed to any sort of pressure or influence”.

CONTINUES HERE

Brazil's new President

The polls have closed in Brazil and no surprises today. Check the latest on this Google News Brazil thread as the evening wears on, but right now it's 58% of valid votes for Brazil's President Elect, Dilma Vana Rousseff, via an exit poll with a 2% margin of error. Jose Serra is pegged back at 41% of valid votes. Congratulations to you, Dilma.



PS: What, me? Did I say this back on March 27th 2010 when José Serra had just extended his lead  in the polls over Dilma from four points to nine points?

"Put me on record today: I say Rousseff wins this election."

Just sayin'

Brazil's second round Presidential vote

Tomorrow, October 31st, Brazil votes in the run-off for the its new President. Here's how South America's biggest circulation newspaper, Folha de S. Paulo, has tracked the voter intention polls this month.

In other words, Dilma Rousseff is as close to a lock as you get possibly get in this crazy game. Her 49% of voter intention translates to 56% of valid votes for tomorrow (once spoiled ballots etc are subtracted), while José Serra is at 44% of valid votes.

Brazil's Presidential election: An enormous result for Marina Silva of the Green Party

Holy wowsers! Check out the numbers with 82.29% of the votes counted already:

Marina Silva of the Green Party, who was polling around 10% all through the election season (give or take), has taken chunks out of Dilma Rousseff's vote and stopped her from becoming President  of Brazil until October 11th. Dilma will still win then (she runs off against Serra) but this result goes down as a minor shock if confirmed by the total count. Data from here.

Brazil goes green. Can't say it's a bad thing, either.

Tomorrow's Brazilian Presidential Election Big Vote Major LatAm Happening Explained In Two Words

a

a 

Dilma Wins

a

a 

a

s

a

Brazil: New poll for the Presidential race

Dilma is trouncing Serra and looks like winning straight on round one (that happens October 3rd, less than a month away now). Good.

The data for the poll was collected by Datafolha between September 2nd and 3rd. It was a big sample, with 4,314 people surveyed in 203 different municipalities up and down Brazil with a margin of error of +/- 2%. Data from here.

Go Dilma!

Brazil's next President will be a woman

Which is good news as far as I'm concerned (and my call all year, even when she was supposedly lagging behind Serra). Al Jazz has got the extended story and analysis and it's well worth clicking through for more but here's the chart that AJ is running with its story, one of those pictures that paints a thousand words.

Go Dilma! Click here for the whole thing.

Brazil: Latest Polling for the Presidential Elections

October 3rd is creeping ever closer and Dilma Rousseff is moving further away from main rival José Serra.

The same IBOPE/O Globo pollsters on July 3rd called the two frontrunners at a 34%/34% dead heat, so not much doubt who has the momentum here. Lula's girl looks a red-hot favourite now. Data from this report.

Brazil's Presidential Election: Latest Poll

Out today is the latest polling for the big regional election at the end of this year and Dilma is apparently kicking José's butt. Here's the chart:

Here's the source if you want more info (like for example how Dilma beats José 49% to 37% in a 2nd round runoff). But the main takeaway is that Lula's dauphine is making this job her own right now.

UPDATE: Wise words from our Brazilian pal drunkeynsian left in the comments section:

Otto, the poll you mentioned was conducted only in the Ceará state, which has a little more than 4% of Brazilian voters. As you probably know, Ceará is in the Northeast, where Lula's candidate is expected to win by a large margin. Nationwide the race is tighter.

True, but* it's still a significant poll that affirms Dilma's momentum. She's still kickin' his butt.

*dontcha hate it when you see those two words together on a blerg?

Brazil's Presidential election: Dilma Leads!

Here's a slightly edited excerpt from IKN60, out yesterday.

Brazil’s latest Presidential opinion poll

On June 26^th (i.e. yesterday), the first survey was published (13) giving Worker Party (PT) candidate Dilma Rousseff an outright lead in the opinion polls for the November Presidential election. CNI/Ibope called voter intention for Rousseff, heiress apparent in Lula’s PT, at 40%, with main opposition candidate José Serra at 35%. A long way behind in third comes Green Party candidate Marina Silva with 9% of voter intention. Margin of error on the poll was put at +/- 2%.

This chart shows the evolution of voter intention over the last nine months and the clear dynamic is that of a growth in support for Dilma Rousseff while Serra’s numbers have remained basically pat.

Brazil: Mining royalties will be a hot topic soon

Here's an excerpt from IKN55, out last weekend, that talks about the subject. If your invested via a brokerage in Brazil-exposed mining stocks and haven't heard anything about it yet, why now phone up your friendly a/c manager and ask her or him just why you have to read these things on a blog first?

Brazil, elections, miners and royalties

Thank you for the feedback last week concerning the possible rise of extra royalty payments on mining operations in LatAm, the theme following on from the recent Australian 40% windfall tax proposals. Further to this I was kindly sent an article (5) that neatly sums up the state of affairs in Brazil as that country moves towards its Presidential elections at the end of this year. The article states that all three of the current Presidential frontrunners, Dilma Rousseff (PT), José Serra (PSDB) and Marina Silva (Green Party) are in favour of changing extra royalties to mining companies.

The issue is likely to start making louder headlines amongst the mining community in the next two or three weeks, as the ruling PT candidate Rousseff is due to define her policy towards mining royalties (and thus remove herself from the current backroom lobbying being conducted by mining companies) via a PT party committee that will sit in Brasilia, come to a agreement and then send the agreed text to Rousseff as the official party line (to which she is very likely to stick). The text is not likely to vary much from a proposal sent to congress by the PT party last year that failed in passage. That text envisaged changes in the current system and would charge a royalty perhaps as high as 5%. As for the other candidates, it seems that main opponent Serra is waiting for the PT policy so that he can take a different position, which is likely to be a differing rate of new royalty rather than none at all.

The bottom line is that the junior mining investor is advised to take into account a higher rate of royalties in future calculations on Brazil-exposed miners. They also might want to take into account a possible rude awakening to the issue if and when it begins to make English language headlines.

Brazil: Dilma leads

For the first time since campaigning began for this (end of) year's Presidential election in Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, the candidate from Lula's PT party, sees herself in the lead.

The poll out this weekend compiled by Brazilian pollster Vox Populi sees her at 38% with main rival José Serra on 35% and then Marina Silva of the Green Party on 10%.

Brazil elections: Serra leads

José Serra (for it is he)

Here's the latest voter intention poll for Brazil's Presidential election, set for October 3rd:

Major newspaper Folha de S. Paulo commissioned the survey taken this week from Datafolha, and put SP's governor in the lead (and up from 32% in a poll last month that was also ran by Datafolha). Lula's PT party candidate Dilma Rousseff scored 27% this week (a point down from last month's 28%), with Brazil socialist Party's (PSB) Ciro Gomes on 11% and the Green Party candidate Marina Silva on 8%.

Put me on record today: I say Rousseff wins this election.