Brazil's second round Presidential vote

Tomorrow, October 31st, Brazil votes in the run-off for the its new President. Here's how South America's biggest circulation newspaper, Folha de S. Paulo, has tracked the voter intention polls this month.

In other words, Dilma Rousseff is as close to a lock as you get possibly get in this crazy game. Her 49% of voter intention translates to 56% of valid votes for tomorrow (once spoiled ballots etc are subtracted), while José Serra is at 44% of valid votes.

Brazil's Presidential election: An enormous result for Marina Silva of the Green Party

Holy wowsers! Check out the numbers with 82.29% of the votes counted already:

Marina Silva of the Green Party, who was polling around 10% all through the election season (give or take), has taken chunks out of Dilma Rousseff's vote and stopped her from becoming President  of Brazil until October 11th. Dilma will still win then (she runs off against Serra) but this result goes down as a minor shock if confirmed by the total count. Data from here.

Brazil goes green. Can't say it's a bad thing, either.

Brazil: New poll for the Presidential race

Dilma is trouncing Serra and looks like winning straight on round one (that happens October 3rd, less than a month away now). Good.

The data for the poll was collected by Datafolha between September 2nd and 3rd. It was a big sample, with 4,314 people surveyed in 203 different municipalities up and down Brazil with a margin of error of +/- 2%. Data from here.

Go Dilma!

Brazil's next President will be a woman

Which is good news as far as I'm concerned (and my call all year, even when she was supposedly lagging behind Serra). Al Jazz has got the extended story and analysis and it's well worth clicking through for more but here's the chart that AJ is running with its story, one of those pictures that paints a thousand words.

Go Dilma! Click here for the whole thing.

Brazil: Latest Polling for the Presidential Elections

October 3rd is creeping ever closer and Dilma Rousseff is moving further away from main rival José Serra.

The same IBOPE/O Globo pollsters on July 3rd called the two frontrunners at a 34%/34% dead heat, so not much doubt who has the momentum here. Lula's girl looks a red-hot favourite now. Data from this report.

Brazil's Presidential election: Dilma Leads!

Here's a slightly edited excerpt from IKN60, out yesterday.

Brazil’s latest Presidential opinion poll

On June 26^th (i.e. yesterday), the first survey was published (13) giving Worker Party (PT) candidate Dilma Rousseff an outright lead in the opinion polls for the November Presidential election. CNI/Ibope called voter intention for Rousseff, heiress apparent in Lula’s PT, at 40%, with main opposition candidate José Serra at 35%. A long way behind in third comes Green Party candidate Marina Silva with 9% of voter intention. Margin of error on the poll was put at +/- 2%.

This chart shows the evolution of voter intention over the last nine months and the clear dynamic is that of a growth in support for Dilma Rousseff while Serra’s numbers have remained basically pat.

Brazil: Dilma leads

For the first time since campaigning began for this (end of) year's Presidential election in Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, the candidate from Lula's PT party, sees herself in the lead.

The poll out this weekend compiled by Brazilian pollster Vox Populi sees her at 38% with main rival José Serra on 35% and then Marina Silva of the Green Party on 10%.

Brazil elections: Serra leads

José Serra (for it is he)

Here's the latest voter intention poll for Brazil's Presidential election, set for October 3rd:

Major newspaper Folha de S. Paulo commissioned the survey taken this week from Datafolha, and put SP's governor in the lead (and up from 32% in a poll last month that was also ran by Datafolha). Lula's PT party candidate Dilma Rousseff scored 27% this week (a point down from last month's 28%), with Brazil socialist Party's (PSB) Ciro Gomes on 11% and the Green Party candidate Marina Silva on 8%.

Put me on record today: I say Rousseff wins this election.