Eat my shorts, Canada

The top Canadian short positions as at April 30th. Thank you reader BF for the headsup.

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Short positions outstanding at Apr. 30/09 (with changes from Apr. 15/09).
Largest Short Positions
Security	Ticker	Total Short	Change
Teck Resources	TCK.B	30907028	-1130592
New Gold	NGD	18332450	2929019
Eldorado Gold	ELD	17111120	30392
Ivanhoe Mines	IVN	15783677	615801
Kinross Gold	K	14581462	-1976018
Red Back Mining	RBI	13137941	-383640
Lundin Mining	LUN	12971093	-2821133
Thompson Creek Metals	TCM	12107626	1716210
Mercator Minerals	ML	8114369	6441664
Sherritt International	S	7948535	-2632410
Osisko Mining	OSK	7791480	-655745
Uranium One	UUU	7763558	-518240
FNX Mining	FNX	5792100	-636781
Agnico-Eagle Mines	AEM	5420162	177736
Silver Wheaton	SLW	4514178	241178
Largest Increase in Short Position
Security	Ticker	Total Short	Change
Mercator Minerals	ML	8114369	6441664
New Gold	NGD	18332450	2929019
Anvil Mining	AVM	2885600	2705347
Capstone Mining	CS	2522166	2359757
Thompson Creek Metals	TCM	12107626	1716210
Largest Decrease in Short Position
Security	Ticker	Total Short	Change
Equinox Minerals	EQN	1973347	-5704853
Lundin Mining	LUN	12971093	-2821133
Sherritt International	S	7948535	-2632410
Central Fund Of Canada	CEF.A	12437	-2222596
Quadra Mining	QUA	835170	-2118314
TSX Venture Short Positions
Short positions outstanding at Apr. 30/09 (with changes from Apr. 15/09).
Largest Short Positions
Security	Ticker	Total Short	Change
Romarco Minerals	R	1550000	48500
San Gold	SGR	1328400	453800
Alturas Minerals	ALT	733333	0
Verena Minerals	VML	536500	536500
Iberian Minerals	IZN	535500	535500
Andean American Mining	AAG	467686	467686
Alix Resources	AIX	350000	350000
Azteca Gold	AZG	300000	290000
New Guinea Gold	NGG	225000	25000
Whitemud Resources	WMK	215932	-620
Forum Uranium	FDC	192000	192000
Columbus Gold	CGT	186500	186500
Evolving Gold	EVG	184500	184500
Constellation Copper	CCU.H	170000	0
Metanor Resources	MTO	160641	-222
Largest Increase in Short Position
Security	Ticker	Total Short	Change
Verena Minerals	VML	536500	536500
Iberian Minerals	IZN	535500	535500
Andean American Mining	AAG	467686	467686
San Gold	SGR	1328400	453800
Alix Resources	AIX	350000	350000
Largest Decrease in Short Position
Security	Ticker	Total Short	Change
Hawthorne Gold	HGC	91900	-609000
Full Metal Minerals	FMM	66000	-497500
African Gold Group	AGG	0	-473814
Gold Wheaton Gold Corp.	GLW.WT	0	-430000
NWT Uranium	NWT	1000	-242000

Know when to take a loss

I just covered my RIO short at the first possible moment today (at $13.16) and lost money.

You can have a trade all mapped in your head, the functions, the logic, the cunning plan, the whole caboodle. Check those fundamentals, watch the note fading supply, draw pretty lines on a chart, wait for the right moment and make your trade. Dudettes and dudes, truly I say unto you; when the market decides to go the other way it just proves you wrong, wrong, wrong.

But the quicker you realize that you've made a mistake the better it is for your back pocket. I shorted RIO at $12.77 yesterday, so that's 40c a paper down the drain. So be it. Do you still honestly believe that you can profit from every single trade that you make? If so, let me show you round my bridge one more time...it's still on special offer.

Bottom line: A big ego will cost you money. Accept that you'll be a loser sometimes. Embrace the fact, because it comes with the territory of being a successful investor.

Vale (RIO): Very shortable here

I'm now looking for the right price to short RIO. Fundamentals suck (Inco in bad shape and more layoffs at an office admin level announced this week) and recent news out of China strongly suggests that the recent pickup in steel production is a forced governmental move that has no basis in true demand, thus causing ever greater stockpiling of finished product.

Sorry brazilguys, I know your RIO is big and meaty and I know you've already dropped a long way, but there's plenty of reason to see RIO as a major hedge play to balance longer stuff.

Here's Reuters with a short report to whack home the issue:

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BEIJING (Reuters) - China's crude steel output was 1.42 million tonnes a day in February, equivalent to about 520 million tonnes a year and a "worrying oversupply", Deng Qilin, chairman of the China Iron & Steel Association, said on Friday.

According to a Reuters calculation, that means February output totalled 39.76 million tonnes, a 5.2 percent increase on the 37.79 million tonnes produced in December 2008, a longer month and the last month for which data is available.

Deng, who is also president of Wuhan Iron & Steel Group, said his company would cut output by 15-20 percent and aimed for sales of 120 billion yuan ($17.55 billion) this year. ($1=6.839 Yuan)

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UPDATE: Not short yet, will look for $13 on Monday

Nadagold (NG): If you'd listened....

.....you'd be short at U$3.70 too, just like your horntootin', smug (and somewhat richer) Otto. And before you open up the e-mail page, I know just how annoying I am. No need to remind either myself or my family. And no need to question the legitimacy of my parents' state of wedlock at the time I was born, either.

The short only started on Feb 5th but not covering yet. No way José.

Short interest in gold stocks rising

As trading drifted into its last hour today, your humble correspondent received a short'n'sweet mail from A. Person, here reprinted in its entirety:

From Bill Fleckenstein's The Daily Rap:

"It's worth noting that the short interest in many gold-mining stocks continues to climb. Obviously, those who believe that deflation will carry the day and that gold needs to collapse in that environment are expressing their viewpoint."

For those unaware Bill Fleckenstein has been writing his paid newsletter on all things financial since 1996, which is not exactly Richard Russell longevity but still highly laudable. "Hmmm", Thought I, "Dat true?", and after rootling around for a few minutes came up with this chart of the major high traded volume pure gold producers quoted in the USA.

Click to enlarge

Yep, it's true. That chart shows 16.42m shares were added to the short side in these eight companies in the period October 2008 to December 2008. And by factoring in today's closing prices that adds up a U$445m of short interest recently added to eight pure gold plays. Now this might not sound so much to you due to regular financial headlines that include the word 'trillion' but I can assure you, intrepid janissary of IKN, that even in this day and age half a billion dollars is a fair chunk of change. Especially in a relatively specialist sector such as gold mining stocks.

So add this to the recent drifting drop in the price of gold, season with recent headlines from the tinfoilhat brigade that those nasty horrible manipulators are at their Comex gold games again, then mix thoroughly and bake in a medium oven for 45 minutes.