Party time in Ecuador

This one is for Bina...swoon it girl!

Right now the world's media is descending on Quito to cover the big bad constitutional referendum that's happening this Sunday, September 28th. Well...ok...maybe a dozen journalists are making ther trip, but no matter...it's the thought that counts (and let's see if they can string two or three lucid ones together on LatAm affairs for a change). So I thought scoop 'em all and mark your card with the most important stuff before the pro-hacks file copy for tomorrow's edition.

1. "Yes" will win. Bet the farm on it. No point adding a thousand extra words here. Obvious is as obvious does.

2. Important news: Boz and I have a side bet going. For those who don't know, boz is a popular blogger on Latam affairs, you can find his site right here, and you'll be happy to know that unlike Otto he actually lets his readership comment freely (obviously hasn't learned just how much fun dictatorship is yet). Anyway, boz says the pro-Studmuffin "Yes" vote gets less than 60% total, I say it gets over 60%. In play are bragging rights and a $10 donation to charity made by the loser (though the winner will probably end up donating too).

3. Opinion polls have been banned for the last three weeks, but a poll out this week that closely tracks the referendum puts Studmuffin's popularity at a near all-time high. Here's the link to that. Tremble, boz ;-)

4. The Muffin Man has also arranged a neat looking victory party for Sunday evening and has invited Chávez and The Village People along. Here's a snap taken at the Dress Rehearsal today.

Photo courtesy of the incredible blog 'el chiguire bipolar'

5. Once this is all over, our raving capitalist observers from Canada will finally get their wish and see the official published New Mining Law, due out October. With that in mind, it's time to buy a chunk of CTQ methinks (and I have to say it's been strong as an ox all week. Nobody selling that paper).

6. Nearly forgot to mention; for good quality coverage of the referendum in English, I recommend Stephan Kueffner at Bloomberg and Alonso Soto at Reuters. Both know their territory well and are fair voices.

Ecuador referendum: latest poll numbers hot off the press

Santiago Pérez, the head honcho of SP Opinión & Estudios, has just announced the results of the latest opinion poll about the 28th September constitution referendum, and it's more good news for President Studmuffin. The "yes" intention votes now stand at 57%, with 23% saying they'll vote "no" and 21% annul/vote in white. Here's the chart that shows how the Yes vote has developed as the weeks pass:

I was asked to change the colour scheme, so I did
(click to enlarge)

These results are from the same accredited polling firm using the same methodology every time. As an example, in this week's survey, 4,610 people were polled (a large sample). The poll counts those people with a decided tendency to vote. Pérez reports that this counts for 65% of those surveyed, as 35% of people have not yet made up their minds. For this reason Pérez is quick to point out that there is no definitive tendency in votes as yet. However, it's clear that as more people make up their minds, the "yes" votes swells. Or in other words, this one is in the bag for Studmuffin.

As a reminder, the constitution passes if "Yes" gets 50% + 1 vote in the key 28th September vote.

Ecuador referendum: the latest poll

In Ecuador, 56% of those polled on August 30th said they would vote "yes" in the 28th September vote.

As this chart shows, support has been steadily growing for "yes", from 50% to 53% and now 56% in the last three surveys by SP Opinión & Estudios. The poll has a margin of error of +/-4%. Note that this does not yet include the bump Studmuffin's Yes vote will get from this week's decision from CONAIE to support the new constitution.

Ecuador: The referendum "yes" vote is now a lock

Does Intrade have a market on the Ecuador referendum coming up on the 28th September? If so, you can now put your mortgage on Studmuffin getting his way....yet again.

The largest indigenous organization, the umbrella group CONAIE, yesterday announced its support for the yes vote, though it was quick to point out that the project constitution does not meet all its demands and that their support for the new constitution is nothing to do with their opinion of Correa.

No matter; with CONAIE, the muffin man has 10% of the population voting his way. Most of those were already in his column, but this will be good for a 3% national swing towards "yes". With Polls already showing growing support for the yes vote and the way those same polls consistently underestimate Correa support, this one is now in the bag.

UPDATE: See this latest post for the updated poll numbers