Polling for the new Mayor of Lima, Peru

On October 3rd, Peru runs its municipal elections to vote in mayors and regional representatives in an election that will shape the 2011 Presidentials. The most important race, and one that will really set the scene for next year, is that for the mayor of Lima.

Pollsters IMA published its third monthly voter intention poll today on the race and the results are interesting. Here's the chart:

click to enlarge

Lourdes Flores, a right wing candidate who has failed several times at runs for the Presidency, is leading and steady in first place. In second and fading fast is Alex Kouri, up to this year the mayor of neighbouring Callao but a person tainted with plenty of suspected corruption over the years.

But the most interesting thing about today's poll is the rapid rise of centre-left Susana Villarán, now holding 9.7% of voter intentions, double that of last month. Susana is a rare breed amongst Peruvian politicians in that she's honest and trustworthy. Seeing her rise in the polls here suggests that Peru is actually maturing as a political entity and is looking for a break from the usual mafioso-type of representatives that look after themselves first and care little about the people they govern.

We wish Susana well, hope she makes a serious run at second place soon and goes on to fight it out with Lourdes.

Chart of the day is....

...how Venezuela voted yesterday.

A very simple chart as that's all you need to know. The whining and handwringing by the defeated opposition has started, of course. We hear how this is terrible for the economy....sorry guys, change the recording, that was the same crap you told us in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. What's your point here? That the US economy is in great shape compared to Venezuela?

An economic "sad but true": If it weren't a 'Bolivarian Revolution' in power in Venezuela, the country would still in deep in the economic caca going forward. Venezuela has proved time and time again that it makes hay while the oil sun shines and goes through a slump when oil drops. Name me a single Venezuelan government (since oil has had its place has a geopolitical bargaining chip) that hasn't been economically irresponsible by your own definition?

(crickets)

(sound of breeze through empty streets)

(tumbleweed passes)

Or in other words, if the only finger left to point is at the 2009 economy, you still haven't learned a thing. Which is why you continue losing to Chávez. Nuff said.


UPDATE 6pm EST: We need to tweak those numbers a little, as Venezuela's CNE electoral body has just updated the result. It's now

YES 54.85%
NO 45.14%

That's with 99.57% of the votes counted. So a 9.7% gap between the two sides. That's a win, folks. Participation at 70% was pretty high.

Venezuela: Gov't claiming victory

Ali Rodriguez (for it is he)

For your information, here below is this Spanish language report from Spain's "El Economista" as put through the Ottotrans™. Seems very early to me to call victory......

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The "YES" option in Venezuela re-election the referendum has an "irreversible advantage" according to exit polls cited by the Minister of Finance and director of the government PSUV party, Alí Rodríguez.

"Today is certainly a day for celebration" said Rodríguez at a PSUV press conference, one hour and thirty minutes before the close of voting, stipulated at 22:20GMT.

"From what the exit polls are saying the tendency is irreversible and the answer that the people has given is irreversible" said Rodríguez, who called on the opposition not to forment acts of violence and recognize the result.

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Meanwhile, El Chigüire brings us this exclusive photo of Chávez voting today:


UPDATE, 8:10pm EST
It sure looks like Chávez has his win and by a relatively comfortable margin, too. Exit polls just released have the "YES" winning by a minimum of 53% and a maximum of 60.9%. Here are the four exit polls released up to now:

PLM Group: YES 60.9%, NO 39.4%
CGC: YES 56%, NO 44%
IVAD: YES 54%, NO 46%
Consul 3011: YES 53%, NO 47%

But the really good news is that Da Boorev is on the case, in the house and at the keyboard, so follow all the fun as he updates and updates on the unfolding results until he get drunk and starts calling us all his best pals. Here's the link.

Venezuela vote things

1. The election is proceeding calmly, which is good. There is one seemingly isolated incident so far, where eleven people in the Tachíra area were detained temporarily following the failed attempt to mess with a voting machine and the destruction of some vote receipts. Apart from that, both pro-gov't and opposition people agree that the vote is being carried out in a free and fair way.

2. El Chigüire is still the best blog to follow (Spanish language). Check this out...just wonderful.

3. Bloomberg has a timeline post up today that shows major moments in the political life of Hugo Chávez. You can argue with the small comments if you like, I suppose, but there's hardly anything too inflammatory there. A useful source to get a basic handle on things.

It's all quiet in Venezuela........

Luis Herrero is very silly man

.......now that a fool from Spain has gone home.

Spanish Euro MP Luis Herrero was invited by those that run these things to be one of the official observers of the referendum vote tomorrow. To ensure free'n'fair and all that stuff, there are 1,200 (I think) neutrals shipped in to watch over things...all quite normal. Well now there's only 1,199, as Rightwinger Herrero's (member of the Spanish PP party) idea of being neutral is saying the following 36 hours before the vote starts (via Ottotrans™):

"(Let Venezuelans) vote freely, and that they must never vote under the fear that a dictator is deliberately trying to impose upon them"*.

x

Result, Venezuela kicked him out of the country. So for sure we'll get exactly what Herrero wanted as the result, namely a diplomatic spat and more reason to shout "police state" etc. But the thing is that Herrero deliberately broke..nay smashed into pieces...his neutrality and respect for the role he was given in a ridiculous and childish way. I mean fer crying out loud here! What about some international observer checking out the recent US elections while wearing a T-shirt with "No Darkies" splashed across the front? That's about where we are here on the subtlety stakes.

It'll be interesting to see just how much fuss the rabid right makes about this indefensible that made a mockery of neutrality and got exactly what he deserved. How anyone could put this gillipollas in as a neutral observer and expect him to remain unbiased during the election tomorrow after what he said is beyond the ken of any reasonable person.

* Original Spanish: "votar en libertad y que jamás voten dejándose llevar por el miedo que premeditadamente un dictador está tratando de imponer".

Weblog Awards finalist

You better believe it, dudes and dudettes.

Click this logo to go to the voting page

We're not up for the big prize of "World's Best Blog" or anything like that, but IKN is one of the ten finalists in the "Best Latino Caribbean or South American Blog" category.

Now here's the bit where you come in; The award is decided by open public vote. It's an open vote that starts on Monday January 5th and finishes Monday January 12th. I'm quite aware that IKN won't win the whole caboodle and that's fine by me, but I'm going to ask you to vote for Inca Kola News anyway. I've been mulling the whole thing over and my personal feelings are midway between "It'd be great to win etc etc" and "Awww shucks just great to be in the final and it doesn't matter what happens etc etc etc". I'm no rabid, seeking politico about getting voted, but on the other hand I'm not going to deny that I'm very pleased about getting this nomination and would like to do well.

So because I feel midway about it, that's what we're aiming for; a top five finish. So what you do come January 5th is click on the logo here or in the box above and then register your vote. That's all. I'd just really appreciate it if at some point in the next week you pop over and spend 20 seconds putting a click by the IKN name.

Voting doesn't start til the 5th, by the way (in other words, expect to be bugged again next week). Finally, here's a bit of the blurb about these awards as ripped from its site (I've been investigating, y'see).

About The Weblog Awards

The Weblog Awards are the world's largest blog competition with over 545,000 votes cast in 2007 edition and nearly two million votes cast in all editions since 2003 yada yada continues here

My only advice to to US readers on election day

In the best tradition of Latin American democracies:

Vote

early

and

often

(before the mails come in, yes I know it was Chicago mayor and friend of Capone WH Thompson who invented the phrase)

Ecuador referendum: latest poll numbers hot off the press

Santiago Pérez, the head honcho of SP Opinión & Estudios, has just announced the results of the latest opinion poll about the 28th September constitution referendum, and it's more good news for President Studmuffin. The "yes" intention votes now stand at 57%, with 23% saying they'll vote "no" and 21% annul/vote in white. Here's the chart that shows how the Yes vote has developed as the weeks pass:

I was asked to change the colour scheme, so I did
(click to enlarge)

These results are from the same accredited polling firm using the same methodology every time. As an example, in this week's survey, 4,610 people were polled (a large sample). The poll counts those people with a decided tendency to vote. Pérez reports that this counts for 65% of those surveyed, as 35% of people have not yet made up their minds. For this reason Pérez is quick to point out that there is no definitive tendency in votes as yet. However, it's clear that as more people make up their minds, the "yes" votes swells. Or in other words, this one is in the bag for Studmuffin.

As a reminder, the constitution passes if "Yes" gets 50% + 1 vote in the key 28th September vote.