Enough of just laughing at the neverending downward revisions of the dumbasses in suits, it's time to nail colours to the mast. Yesterday's February GDP numbers from Peru were downright horrible. No ifs, no buts, no maybes. So instead of getting on with my life last night I started to play with some previously tweaked models and then whipped up a couple of charts from them, too.
This first chart shows how Peru's 2009 GDP number will evolve (devolve?) in 2009 under five different and purely theoretical growth scenarios. From a highly optimistic 4% growth per month to a 0% average growth scenario.
This first chart shows how Peru's 2009 GDP number will evolve (devolve?) in 2009 under five different and purely theoretical growth scenarios. From a highly optimistic 4% growth per month to a 0% average growth scenario.
Note that with this chart above even a 4% monthly growth rate from here will end up with a lower 2009 GDP than is being forecast by Peru's Central Bank, its Finance Ministry, the IMF and all the other liars. And to repeat: February GDP came in at 0.19%. March GDP is likely YoY flat or negative. Same for April. Etc etc.Now this second chart is my best case (honestly, this is being optimistic) for Peru in 2009. The yellow bars show the monthly GDP figures and the red bars are the 12 month trailing GDP forecasts. And so after the shocking numbers posted yesterday, right now I'm predicting Peru to grow 1.28% in 2009. As for 2010, almost certain recession.
Moral: Miracles are for the religions, not economics. Welcome to reality.