Showing posts with label rumour. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rumour. Show all posts

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Chariot Resources (CHD.to): A bit of unfounded gossip

Get a haircut, scruffy

After the bell yesterday we had this press release from Chariot Resources (CHD.to) (owners of the advanced exploration-stage Marcona copper project on the coast of Peru next to the big Shougang ironworks) that stated the company was adopting a shareholder rights plan. Pretty standard stuff for two reasons:

1) The plan is designed to protect sharehodler in the event of a takeover bid by some third party.

2) It's an easy way to get a company a bit of publicity and start people thinking about possible takeovers.

The "we have adopted a rights plan" PR is trotted out by junior mining companies all over the place so this one from CHD.to, being of the totally standard cookiecutter variety, would normally have passed through my eyes and out the back of my head without registering much. After all, I don't hold the stock (though I know a guy who does and that's the disclosure, so DYODD dude).

But it reminded me about a rumour I heard a few weeks ago about the normally gold-only California scientology promo tagteam (and that's putting it as nicely as I possibly can) of Ken Gerbino and Michael Baybak. The ottobird heard some word from a normally solid and reliable source that Baybak was suddenly very interested in the Marcona district of Peru. This was kind of strange because, as noted above, these dudes have only really ever operated in the world of gold miners (as Mark Twain would have note, gold mines suit them perfectly). Because it wasn't "their metal" I kind of forgot about it after a time, though it was interesting for sure.

So maybe Baybak has his sights set on Shougang's overly cheap neighbour CHD.to, the one with a whole heap of copper? Maybe, and maybe CHD.to has got wind of whispers of the type that passed this desk back in January (I think it was). Be clear, this post is based strictly on unconfirmable rumour and should be taken as such...just passing on a bit of gossip.

DYODD, dudettes and dudes, but FWIW I do think Chariot is a smartly-run company with a very nice and undervalued copper asset. If Cu goes above $2/lb it will suddenly become an object of conversation in polite circles again. That's solid opinion, not scuttlebutt. I'll leave you with the CHD.to 12 month price chart; just another story of junior copper ouchness.


Thursday, March 5, 2009

Finetik and the latest on Itau/Banamex/Citi


Via the Finetik blog linked here, your info-hungry Otto finds out that Banco Itau (ITU) sent an official communication to the Brazilian regulators last night stating that Itau "..is not negotiating any stake in Banamex’s capital..".

Now that doesn't mean there's no interest, of course. The ITU honchos have already said they'd be interested purchasers if and when Banamex went up for sale. It does mean, however, that ITU isn't doing anything proactive right now. This fits with the official Citigroup (C) line that Banamex is not up for sale, of course. This won't quell the rumours, but it will put a dampener on short-term speculation for sure. However it should be clearly pointed out that none of this addresses the core issue here: As explained previously if the US gov't takes its 36% interest in Citigroup as planned, C will be breaking the Mexican law and cannot hold onto Banamex as things stand. That's as plain as day.

Finally, a word of kudos for the people at Finetik; I've only recently discovered the blog (which is part of a wider capital markets company that specializes in Latin America as well as Asia) and put it on my RSS, but I've been very impressed with the quality of information passed over there. I can thoroughly recommend it and say it would be a good addition to your own RSS feed (or regular bookmarked visit). Here's the link to the blog's main page.

Disclosure: I have no affiliation whatsoever with Finetik and have never even spoken to the people in my time. I just think it's a good blog that covers LatAm finance well.

Related Post
Itau, Banamex and Citigroup: Rumours in the village

Monday, February 9, 2009

Aquiline Resources (AQI.to): Southern scuttlebutt

First the facts: Aquiline (AQI.to) came out with this PR today that sets the company up nicely for its new 43-101 resource due out next month (according to the PR at least). The drilling campaign has clearly been a good one and the company conveys the feeling that the resource is very close to full definition now. The Navidad project is undoubtedly very rich, very big and altogether tasty. It's also got important support from the governor of the Chubut region, Mario Das Neves. backing worth its own weight. Anyway, next month we get to see some hard 43-101 numbers.

Now the gossip, rumours and general "don't bet on this stuff" talk. Otto was talking yesterday with a long-time friend in Argentina. Word up from the bowels of BsAs tends to confirm the talk that swirled around a few weeks ago, namely that Aquiline is the target for a large silver player in the immediate future. I want to stress that this is an unconfirmed, anecdotal rumour and so take it as you will, but I'm passing this one on today (instead of leaving the rumour on my desk, as happens with the great majority) as it passes personal tests:

1) The source is one I consider very reliable.
2) It's unlikely to be duplicity from last month's scuttlebutt. Sorry and all that but can't really say why. Suffice to say that the person in question doesn't move in the same circles as the Canadian investment world.
3) It makes sense. The timing before the 43-101 resource is good, and as seen in recent days there are large players looking to buy up the beaten-down juniors in all sectors from copper to gold.
4) I do not own any Aquiline, nor does anyody I know directly. (There's one guy I mail with in Canada that owns heaps of the thing but we haven't spoke since I got back from the beach).

Here's the 12 month chart of Aquiline FYI:


Now listen very carefully: DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE, DUDE. What I'm passing here is a rumour, no more and no less. I have my opinion about the integrity of the person involved and this post wouldn't exist if I had the slightest doubt on that score. But it's still a rumour. Got it? And as for future positioning, I'm not planning to take a piece of AQI.to personally, either. I'm quite happy with my trading portfolio right now and don't want to move much further out of cash. I'd also feel cheesy after posting like this. Nuff said. Have a nice day.