An interesting article from Platt's today that gets some Chinese copper expert dude on the record about the metal. By way of analysis, I'm going to tutn away from my usual cynical non-trusting self, make a leap of faith and assume what the anonymous source inside the subsidiary of a Chinese Copper giant says is true. If so;
- Copper consumption looks good for a 300,000MT rise this year
- The extra compared to 2008 has already been imported into China
- The summer doldrums are coming and you should be ready for them
- 2010 will be a good year to go long copper
Hong Kong (Platts)--3Jun2009
China's copper consumption is expected to top 5.8 million mt/year in
2010, up from a projected 5.2 million in 2009 and 4.9 million in 2008,
following heavy investment in the power sector by the government, a Jinrui
Futures Co. official said Tuesday.
"The Chinese government is to spend Yuan 1.5 trillion [$189 billion] on
power networks and basic infrastructure construction [before end-2010], the
key copper consuming industries, which we think can stimulate copper demand in
China," a Jinrui official said. Jinrui is a subsidiary of copper giant Jiangxi
Copper.
Analysts said the government's plans of completing the ultra high voltage
power network by 2015 would have positive impact on domestic copper
consumption by 2010.
"Apart from growing demand for copper by the power industry, we are also
optimistic about future demand by the domestic automobile industry, given the
recent rise in car sales in China," the Jinrui source said.
The power sector accounts for 40-50% of China's copper consumption,
according to state-run nonferrous metals research company Beijing Antaike.
It predicted the sector would consume 2.6 million mt copper in 2010, up
from a projected 2.35 million mt in 2009 and 2.2 million mt in 2008.
Jinrui predicts China's refined copper imports in 2009 will exceed the
1.456 million mt imported in 2008.
"Total refined copper imports by China during the first four months of
the year have already greatly exceeded half the total import volume last year,
so the import figure for 2009 will surely be higher, even if volumes decrease
in the next few months in the usual low summer buying season," the Jinrui
source said.
High imports over January-April was due mainly to arbitrage opportunities
as well as State Reserve Bureau's copper purchases earlier this year, which
trimmed domestic supply.
China imported 1.066 million mt refined copper during the first four
months of 2009, up 106% from the same period in 2008, customs figures showed.
--Joshua Leung, newsdesk@platts.com