Sunday, July 31, 2011

OT: about that weekend video

I've taken several mails about the "fifty academics" video posted on site over the weekend and just to clear matters up a little, here's a mail (slightly brushed but 99.9% the same) I sent by way of reply to one of them (an old e-mail pal for whom I hold the greatest of respect, I hasten to add). You don't get to see what he wrote to me, but that's no problem.
Did i say i was an atheist? No, i said it was good brainfood.

As inferred in the text of the post, much of the time is taken up by the old "rationality" argument in different guises. This one has been batted back and forth between the two sides more times than can be mentioned in polite company and is, intellectually speaking, old hat (though fun to watch how it manifests itself in different people's brains). However, there were a couple of good and well constructed points made and i particularly liked the way the question of whether there is a "grand purpose" to it all was framed.

It made me think, and i like to think.

It made me think above all about social morality and whether religion is a necessary tool in society to keep things working and for us not to descend into anarchy (in its strictest sense) and chaos. It also made me think a helluva lot about my daughters. Finally, it made me revisit a lot of the texts and sayings attributed to Gautama Buddha (because the Bible's view is ingrained into this westerner, whether he likes it or not).

My best advice would be not to jump to conclusions about my religious leanings. I'm not going to force mine upon anyone (nor will i reveal my beliefs), equally i reject others forcing theirs on me.

The IKN Weekly, out now

IKN117 got out to subscribers eventually. And as you're asking, the answer is 15,600.

Message to subscribers

Yes, I know the Weekly is late this week. I've been going through another fun session of writer's block here this weekend (with hair pulled out by roots scattered on and around the keyboard by way of evidence) and it's still getting treatment here. It's going to take a while longer to get done, but it'll get to you late tonight at the very worst.

Money talks bullshit walks, debt ceiling edition

From Reuters (via twitter) eleven minutes ago at time of writing:

The paymasters have told their minions to stop the BS and vote something that won't cost them money. The end.

Update: Market Narrative leaves this link in the comments section to show how wonderful he really really is. And oh of course he's wonderful and to otherwise think is to badly know him.

Update 2: Just wondering to myself how long I can look at that update 1 without correcting the deliberate mistakes. Gawd, it's ugly. 

UPDATE 3: Then there's this:


Bayfield Resources (BYV.v) smearing and Brent Cook's rebuttal

After last week's spat between Bayfield (BYV.v) and Brent Cook, today we get to see the reply by Brent Cook to Bayfield Resources (BYV.v), via his weekly "Exploration Insights" letter. We're also allowed to re-print the piece in the public sphere, so here it is. The assistance of 'LV' appreciated on this.

Exploration Insights
by Brent Cook

Issue No. 152
July 31, 2011

Normally Exploration Insights is exclusive to subscribers and we appreciate that you don’t cut and paste or forward the timely information herein. However, as soon will become clear, the Rant in today’s letter is for general distribution and you are welcome to send it along to anyone you think may be interested its subject (if you would prefer a .pdf send us an email).

The Rant

US Based Newsletter Writer Clarifies Bayfield Ventures’ Clarification of Misinformation Regarding Potentially Confusing Drill Information that Bayfield Clarified in a Previous Confusing Release as Mandated by BCSC

On Tuesday, July 26 a US based newsletter writer was asked during this BNN interview (Tuesday, 11:50 EST) to comment on Bayfield Ventures’ (BYV.TSX-V) potentially confusing drill results. Subsequent to his comments, Bayfield distributed this news release in which they stated that factual errors were made by said newsletter writer in the discussion.

Let’s get factual

In their June 30 news release, Bayfield Ventures reported that the British Columbia Securities Commission (BCSC) required BYV to “clarify” certain details of its technical disclosure of previously released drill results. The “potentially confusing” information in question relates to BYV’s reporting of long intervals of mineralized drilling results that were created by diluting a few, sporadic high grade intercepts with lengthy intervals of lower grade (and even some barren) intercepts. This equates to a mathematical smearing of the isolated high grade intervals throughout a larger volume of low and possibly sub-economic material.  By smearing gold grades, the character of the geologic occurrence is misrepresented and can be confusing and/or misleading to the general public who, on the whole, don’t have the tools or experience to recognize this mathematical misrepresentation. (We have examined this issue many times here at Exploration Insights using the free drill interval calculator.)

That was the gist of the BNN conversation.  BYV was not represented as the “poster child” of smearing; rather, their recent press releases and the restatement required by the BCSC merely made them a timely example for a respected daily business show. 

With respect to the BCSC mandated clarification-- this addresses five drill holes from four separate news releases dated September 8, 2010 to June 27, 2011. Specifically*:
  • Sept 8, 2010 RR10-18: BYV reported 81 meters grading 5.08 g/t Au, between 488 to 569 meters drill depth; this was restated to 13 meters of high-grade contained in three separate intervals (see table below).

  • Dec. 14, 2010 RR10-52: (My personal favorite, with erratum to the BNN discussion where I misstated 80 meters, rather than 58) BYV reported 58 meters grading 1.84 g/t Au between 394 to 452 meters drill depth; this was restated as 1.1 meter grading 89.96 g/t Au, at 402.4 meters depth.
  • Feb. 16, 2011 RR11-1: BYV reported 116.6 meters grading 1.05 g/t Au between 509 meters to 626 meters drill depth; this was restated as 20.8 meters containing three, isolated, high-grade intercepts.
  • June 27, 2011 RR11-70: BYV reported 43.8 meters grading 1.02 g/t Au between 41.00 to 84.80 meters depth; this was restated as two separate higher grade intervals totaling 10.4 meters.
  • June 27, 2011 RR11-71: BYV reported 79.5 meters grading 8.66 g/t Au between 15.50 meters to 95 meters depth; this was restated as 25.5 meters grading 26.7 g/t. Both drill holes 70 and 71 are good drill intercepts, the significance of which is dependent upon pending results from nearby holes.
  • Yet to be restated: RR11-14: 56.9 meters grading 0.62 g/t between 275 to 328.3; should be two separate intervals of about 3 meters each grading 6.75 and 2.14 g/t.
*Note that we are only considering gold assays, as some of the earlier releases did not include silver assays.

(Fig. 1- One-year BYV chart showing news release dates for drill results that were subsequently “clarified”, and the apparent market reaction to original news releases)


1.    81 meters becomes 13 meters beginning at 488 meters drill depth;

2.    58 meters becomes 1.1 meter beginning at a drill depth of 402 meters;

3.    116 meters becomes 20.8 meters beginning at a drill depth of 509 meters;

4.    79.5 meters becomes 26.5 meters beginning at a drill depth of 38 meters;

5.    43.8 meters becomes 10.4 meters beginning at a drill depth of 41 meters.

On July 19, some of these restated results from the June 30th clarification news release were posted to BYV’s website in a cross-section, as represented below (Fig. 2). The section actually appears to run slightly east of north, so the section may not be truly perpendicular to the strike of the feature; the true width may be somewhat less than drill width. I have edited the cross-section by including the approximate location of the long “mineralized” intervals as originally reported by Bayfield on the drill trace against the restated intervals where possible. This graphic visualization helps put some context to the restated mineralized intervals.

(Fig. 2- Burns Block Cross Section showing drill hole trace and mineralized intervals. The red bars represent the actual location of the mineralized intervals as restated in the June 30 news release. The length of the red bar is proportional to the grade. I added the green on the drill trace to represent the approximate drill interval the mineralization in red was smeared across in previous news releases. Note 50-meter scale on drill trace. So, does the green convey a different impression of the mineralization than the red?)

A key takeaway from the cross section is that, with the exception of mineralization intersected in RR-70 and 71, these high grade intersections are deep and, based upon the presently available information, would not be exploited via open pit mining. It is also very obvious that some of the “clarified” results are very narrow, high grade hits that were mathematically smeared over greater drill length —specifically RR-52—just as the BCSC noted.

The other topic discussed in the BNN segment relates to continuity of grade. In the cross section above, and in previous releases, BYV suggests that their drilling has identified a high grade gold shoot with a down plunge length of about 600 meters. Basically, BYV has connected the red bars on the drill holes above and are interpreting that these form a continuous mineralized body. The distance extrapolated between drill holes is up to about 100 meters – this is a big distance to extrapolate in deposits of this type. It will take considerably more infill drilling to prove continuity.

Bayfields’ location map suggests to me that there may be other drill holes that cross their section of choice, but that are not included; however, there is insufficient information to be certain, or to know why BYV selected the holes they used (the drill map is here for anyone interested). If drill hole data relevant to interpreting continuity are missing, one needs to ask why potentially useful data are omitted. Regardless, at this stage I am dubious about grade continuity of this projected shoot-- only time will tell.

There does, however, appear to be sufficient drilling immediately east and west of Bayfields’ section to establish or negate continuity along strike (Fig. 3). In some instances, gold ore bodies have continuity down plunge or dip which can be matched along strike. Basically, if an ore body is extensive or continuous in one direction it can be in the other as well; therefore, it is possible that we can use that on-strike data to guess at the down plunge continuity.

(Fig. 3- North Drill Fence map extracted from complete map, showing drill hole locations. Note the number of holes per location. Red are “high grade” holes, orange are drilled with assays complete, and yellow with assays pending. What is in the holes immediately adjacent to those selected for BYV’s cross section?)

The cross section in Figure 2 above is only a paper-thin two dimensional slice through the earth lined up along the holes BYV selected. Bayfield has drilled many dozens of holes along east west lines, usually with several holes from the same location. In order to evaluate the 600-meter long ore shoot BYV is postulating, we need to establish the east-west strike length of this zone. Although difficult to tell from the map, it appears drill stations are between 10 and 50 meters apart along the east-west lines—a good distance to establish grade and structural continuity.

I am afraid, however, that the drill data is too poorly organized and presented to permit any conclusion regarding grade continuity along strike and therefore the potential tonnes and grade of the proposed shoot, or continuity therein. Bayfield should present us with a series of north-south cross sections similar to Figure 2, indicating the thickness of the section (showing the distance holes are projected into the section), using all the drill holes with down-hole assays in order to prove BYV have discovered something of value. Many companies at this stage of outlining a possible resource do this on or through their own websites. It’s basic exploration and disclosure practice in Canada.

When and if Bayfield does present the public with sufficient cross sections and maps to make an assessment of the grade and continuity of Burns Block and the postulated shoot, we are certain the US based newsletter writer will be happy to publicly review the data and, if need be, reconsider his current assessment of the company.

Are we clear now?

Geometry in the Real World, San Diego, California - Slideshow

Click the figure below to see the slideshow.

Geometry in the Real World, San Diego, California - Slideshow

Geometry in the Real World, San Antonio, Texas - Slideshow

Click the figure below to see the slideshow.

Geometry in the Real World, San Antonio, Texas - Slideshow

Geometry in the Real World, Phoenix, Arizona - Slideshow

Click the figure below to see the slideshow.

Geometry in the Real World, Phoenix, Arizona - Slideshow

Saturday, July 30, 2011

a most interesting video

Some of the arguments are based on the stock rationality argument (i.e. scientists and theologians talking past each other), but some are good brainfood indeed. Number 10 made me think.

Geometry in Machu Picchu, Cusco, Peru - Slideshow

Click the figure below to see the slideshow.

Geometry in the Real World, Machu Picchu, Cusco, Peru - Slideshow

Geometry in the Real World, The Taj Mahal, Agra, India - Slideshow

Click the figure below to see the slideshow.

Geometry in the Real World, The Taj Mahal, Agra, India - Slideshow

Geometry in Barcelona, Spain - Slideshow

Click the figure below to see the slideshow.

Geometry in the Real World, Barcelona, Spain - Slideshow

Catching up with the American Power Corp (AMPW.ob) scam

Back in January this year your author wrote a post with the snappy title of "American Power (AMPW.ob) is a scam and today's most obvious shorting opportunity". At the time the stock stood at $1.15 and there was plenty of lend available, too. So here's how things stand today, six months on:

The stock's at 26c, representing a 77.4% drop from the date of publishing. Owl please:

Thank you, owl.

When people ask me how I'm so sure about these con jobs, the answer is always really easy: Check the Regulatory Filings. This isn't rocket science, just the application of plain common sense and it makes calling the currrent bullshit scam over at Portage Resources ( just as easy.

Otto Perez Molina will be the next President of Guatemala

The big news out of LatAm politics today is that Sandra Torres, the conveniently ex-wife of outgoing President Colom, has just been barred from running in this year's Presidential election by the country's supreme court. Check out Mike over at Central American Politics for more. The whole charade from start to finish has been an archetype TPLAC* episode in politics but I have to say that in the end, it's good to see the courtrooms stand up and be counted on rule of law. In the long run that alone will do Guatemala more good than harm.

So now barring a political upheaval of unheard of proportions, the way is clear for Otto Perez Molina (no relation of course) to be the next President. Make of that what you will.

*tin pot lil american country

Felix Salmon on debt ceilings and yield curves

I've watched the ongoing silliness from afar without commenting much, partly because for the most part it all falls outside the brief of this humble corner of cyberspace (possible exception the effect on gold) but largely because far better brains have been obsessing about it all and there's oodles to read already.

However this note by Felix Salmon on what can be read into recent changes in the yield curve is particularly good and worthy of a shout-out, because it manages to synthesize just about everything you need to know about the issue in one fairly easy to read lump. Here's how it concludes, full agreement from this desk:
"And this I think is what we’re really seeing in the yield curve. Never mind twitches at the very short end — look at the speed with which long-term rates are going down. That’s a sign of pessimism about long-term U.S. growth — an indication that Congressional failure to raise the debt ceiling will hobble the economy for the next decade. Thanks, guys."


Sanborn on Peru's political future

For those of you who 1) speak Spanish and 2) care enough about what's going on in Peru politically, this note written by Cynthia Sanborn, entitled "Leading a Rich Country" is highly recommended as reading material.

Geometry Problem 650: Tangent Circles, Diameter, Radius, Chord, Perpendicular

Geometry Problem
Click the figure below to see the complete problem 650.

Problem 650: Tangent Circles, Diameter, Radius, Chord, Perpendicular.

Friday, July 29, 2011

The Friday OT: Beck; Loser

After today's market action the choice between the shortlisted songs became easier.

 Great tune though, still daisyfresh after eighteen (!) years. Spray-paint the vegetables.

Is the Stillwater (SWC) Peregrine ( buyout deal in trouble?

Not overtly, but the market is flashing a clear signal of nerves.

Since Stillwater Mining (SWC) announced its offer to buy Peregrine Metals ( on July 11th, the SWC share price has taken quite a bashing, down from its U$22 level to the current U$15.50 or so. That's one thing that indicates shareholder dissatisfaction with the proposed deal, but what needs to be monitored more than anything else is the arbitrage between the two stocks. That's because (arb 101 coming up) if the difference in relative price between owning and owning SWC reduces, it signals that the market is confident the deal with happen and the value gap closes. On the other hand if the arbitrage increases, it shows that the market isn't sure this thing is going to go ahead and prefers holding the less-to-lose-from-failure SWC than the more-to-lose

So how the calculation is done in simple bullet points:

1) We take the closing price for SWC for every day since the deal was announced (we use intraday for today July 29th)
2) We multiply the SWC share price by 0.08136, the ratio used in the deal.
3) We then add the cash component for the deal, of U$1.35
4) We then do the forex, converting the USD price of SWC into Canadian Dollars (CAD), as that's the currency in which trades. We use the closing forex price between the two currencies for every day (intraday for today).
5) We now have a number that indicates "fair value" of stock if the deal goes ahead.
6) We then look at the closing prices every day for (intraday for today).
7) We subtract one from the other and we arrive at the arbitrage between the two stocks.
8) Finally, we put together this little chart:

What this shows is a slow but steady increase in the arb between the two stocks. Which suggests a market that's evermore nervous about the deal going through, as the current 22c arb represents a 9.6% gap between the two prices.....that's a lot in a world that will give a normal 2% to 4% arb on deals that look solid and likely.

The bottom line is that the SWC/ isn't actively in trouble yet, but the market is saying "look, this one doesn't have the fat lady singing yet". Worth a continued place on your radar, methinks. DYODD.

UPDATE: A few minutes after hitting the publish button on this, the arb moved to 24c (SWC U$15.44, CAD$ 2.25). Just sayin'.

Also, let's take a line for Disclosure: No position in either stock and not planning to move into either unless something big happens, but I sold my at CAD$2.60 a couple of days after the deal was announced for a near 200% total win and also reco'd to the subs list that they sell at that time.

Portage Resources ( Still don't think it's a scam? Look at this

This is hilarious. Here's the link to the SEC filing, here's the paste-out.



Item 8.01 – Other Events

On July 27, 2011, the Board of Directors unanimously approved a dividend whereby the shareholders or Portage Resources Inc. (the “Company”) will receive a dividend payable as a  ten for one (10:1) forward split of the issued and outstanding shares of Common Stock   of the Company  pursuant to Section 78.215 of the Nevada Revised Statutes.  Pursuant to NRS78.215 and consistent with the Company’s Articles of Incorporation there is no shareholder approval required for this action.  The Record Date of the Forward Split was set as August 8, 2011 and the Effective Date and Payment Date is set as August 10, 2011.  The dividend to be paid to the shareholders of record is payable upon surrender.  Therefore, in order to receive the dividend shares the shareholders of record must surrender their existing shares to the transfer agent and will receive 10 new shares of the Company for each 1 share surrendered.

The effective date and the payment date is subject to FINRA approval and the Company will announce the payment date when such approval is received.

Further, as part of this approved action of the Board of Directors, the Company’s Executive Officer, Mr. Paul Luna Belfiore agreed to return a total of 230,000,000 restricted shares to treasury for cancellation prior to the record date, which would leave a total of 445,200,000 shares issued and outstanding as at the record date.

The dividend shares when issued will increase the Company’s issued and outstanding common shares to 4,452,000,000 common shares, all with par value of $0.001.


Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.

Dated: July 28, 2011
/s/ Paul Belfiore
Paul Belfiore
Chief Executive Officer

Yes, you read that correctly. As of next August 10th Portage Resources ( will have four point four five two BILLION shares outstanding, but only if the dumb sheep holding the stock voluntarily step up and surrender their shares. If you snooze you lose and that shitbag Luna is laughing at you from his window overlooking Peru's biggest casino.

News roundup (we also report that your author's new coffee machine is working well)

1.3% GDP growth = QE3 coming soon. Be clear.UPDATE: Oh another thing, today I learned that when things suck in the US people drink more coffee. Must be cos SBUX fraps make them think they can still afford luxury things.

Chile: The La Escondida strike now into its eighth day. This single mine is about 5.5% of world copper supply, so this is one that needs to be watched.

Peru's new Prez announces that he's setting up a national airline. Hope he buys new machines cos locals are fed up with having either Lan or some jailed narco's 1970s Boeing cast-offs.

Argentina, and the Mayor of Buenos Aires vote gets settled this weekend, the run-off between incumbent Mauricio Macri and challenger Daniel Filmus (a Kirchnerite). Macri will win it easily. Cristina still wins in October though.

In a shocking turn of events, Reuters reports on the negative reaction amongst anal ysts to Nadagold's (NG) Galore Creek PFS. The title is "Nadagold's Galore Creek study fails to impress", which just about sums things up. And yup, you heard it here first on Wednesday evening but feel free to wait until Friday morning if you need a "real" news service to tell you the bleedin' obvious.

Conga Mine Project, Overview, Buenaventura, Newmont - Video and News

Conga mine largest mining investment in Peru's' history.
Click the figure below to see the video.

 Gold and Copper Mining: Conga Mine Project, Overview - Video and News.

A Flash update...

...has just been sent to subscribers. Belt'n'braces here.

Chart of the day is...

...The Big Mac Index, that anecdotal, non-scientific but still rather nifty thing The Economist does to compare world currencies.

This month's write-up explains why the BMI indicates that China's Yuan now looks close to fair value against the dollar, as well as having more charts and tables and things. Go read here.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Conga Mine Project Camp, Cajamarca, Peru, Map and News

Buenaventura, Newmont to invest $4 billion in Peru mine.

Click the figure below to interact with the map.

Conga Mine Project Camp, San Nicolas, Celendin, Cajamarca, Peru, Map and NewsZoom at: Conga Mine Project.

Peru's stock market, monthly performances, 2011

Brought to you by your local headless chicken of a stock broker
Nuff said.

Headline of the day: ""England U20 soccer team welcomed to Colombia by dozens of dancing policewomen (video)"

Colombia Reports wins the prize with "England U20 soccer team welcomed to Colombia by dozens of dancing policewomen (video)". Click through to see all the fun and frolics, it scores a solid seven on the Bizarr-o-Meter.

Cerro Casale: The capex estimate goes up again, what a shockah

Back in April, IKN posted this note that showed how the estimates for cap-ex for the 75% Barrick (ABX) owned Cerro Casale bigbadmutha project in Chile had risen from U$1.4Bn in 2004 to U$5.25Bn. So here we are just three months later and according to today's ABX NR, capex is shifted up to a cool U$6Bn. Here's the updated chart on the white elephant.

Back in April your humble scribe wrote,

"So anyway, it's now been fixed at $5.25Bn and it's hardly likely to change again from that number, is it? After all, they wouldn't underestimate and then revise upwards later on purpose now, would they?".

Be clear, this sentiment applies equally to the new U$6Bn number.

BREAKING! Humala to Nationalize Peru Mining Industry!

In his presidential inauguration speech, live now, Ollanta Humala has just said that he will nationalize the mining industry in Peru.

Nah, only joking. You guys should stop believing everything you read on blogs anyhow. Have a nice day.

UPDATE: More details on the Peru mining industry nationalizations here.

Geometry and Audio: Resonance the Film - Video and News

A collaborative project with over 30 independent visual and audio designers / studios.
Click the figure below to see the video.

 Geometry and Sound: Resonance the Film - Video and News.

B2Gold ( 2q11 production numbers

B2Gold ( has just reported its 2q11 production numbers. Find the link here, meanwhile for subscribers, please note the the analysis of contained in IKN110, dated June 12th 2011:
IKN Forecast gold sales for 2q11 = 36,000 oz Au
BTO reported sales for 2q11 = 36,030 oz Au

IKN Forecast sales revenues for 2q11 = $55.8m
BTO reported sales revenues for 2q11 = $54.5m

Just saying. Anyway people, the underlined bold-type call on BTO that you can see on page 12 of IKN110 is reiterated and confirmed today.

Barrick (ABX) puts in a good quarter and its stock price looks cheap right now

Barrick (ABX) ( announced its 2q11 financial results a few minutes ago and at first glance they look pretty solid. So to cut to the chase and show a really way simple company development chart, here's how bottom line profits have evolved these last few quarters:

Fair to say that the U$1.159Bn reported today fits in quite nicely. As for quarterly EPS, that looks like this:

And to stretch this overly simple analysis one stage further, if we multiply those quarterly EPS figures by four to get an annual equivalent, then take the share price at the end of each quarter, then divide one into another, we get this price/earnings ratio that seems to suggest ABX is competitively priced right now.

By the way, the only change to that formula above is for the current quarter, as I've used today's share price and not that of June 30th 2011 (which was lower). To wrap up, to get back to that approx 12X average we'd need an ABX share price at U$56, which implies a 15% upside to today's price. Gold willing, that looks pretty reachable from here and so in your author's view ABX represents value on these quarterly numbers.

disclosure: no position in ABX DYOfreakinDD dude.

Party in Lima

Cristina is there, Dilma is there, Juanma is there, Evo is there, Rafa is there, all of them and more (in fact, looks like only Hugo and Lugo are missing the party and both due to well-documented health issues) ready for the changing of the guard as Ollanta Humala joins the club this morning.

All happening on Peru's independence day, too. Pisco sours served, the end.

UPDATE: Oh, you wanna link to a real news story about the Humala inauguration? Ok, here's AP's version, chosen at semi-random. They're all the same, really.

Chart of the day is...

...Portage Resources (, last ten trading days.

Still mapping the trainwreck, still plenty plenty more downside to come from this out and out 100% scam run by the worst sort of scumbags in the business (and believe me, there's plenty of competition in junior mining).

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Nadagold (NG): My two fave bits from the Galore Creek PFS out tonight

It's actually pretty easy to choose from all the crunchy goodness offered up in the NR tonight.

It's this bit.... 

...and then this bit:

I love these guys, though I get the feeling that Rick!'s secretary may have heard him wrong while dictating his quote for the NR. I mean, when he said...
"The results of the Prefeasibility Study clearly indicate that Galore Creek is a very valuable asset,” said Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse, President & CEO of NovaGold."

...surely that should say "vulnerable asset"? DYODD, dudettes & dudes.

How Nicaragua's 2011 Presidential election is shaping up

If you want a rundown and decent, informed opinion on how the run-up to Nicaragua's 2011 Presidential election is going so far, you could do a lot worse than check out this post by Mike over at Central American Politics, published today. A good digest of events up to now and balanced opinion on the thing. Here are two short snippets to give a taste, but the whole post is worthy of your attention so do it right and click through:
"A June poll in Nicaragua indicates that Daniel Ortega will win a first round victory in November's scheduled presidential elections. Fifty-seven per cent of those polled claimed that they would vote for Ortega..."
"Ortega’s definitely not perfect and his run at re-election doesn’t appear to be legal, but there’s no denying his support within the country."


Arbelos Definition by Archimedes

Archimedes' Book of Lemmas
Click the figure below to see the index.

Arbelos Definition by Archimedes.

Terry Wade on Ollanta Humala: 100% agreement here

A top analysis note by Terry Wade of Reuters today, the subject being that dude Ollanta Humala who gets to play at President of Peru as of tomorrow morning. Here below is how Wade's note begins and your humble scribe highly recommends that you click through and read the whole piece, as it's oodles more observant and insightful than the usual mediocrity you read on Peru politics. 

LIMA (Reuters) – Peru’s leftist President-elect Ollanta Humala, who takes office on Thursday, has dared to move further toward the center, if not the right, than the man he emulated during his campaign — Brazil’s former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Humala, a former army commander who used to scare investors with fiery rhetoric, won office in June after promising to govern as a business-friendly leftist like Lula.
But the cabinet Humala has assembled, by nearly every measure, is more conservative than the one Lula put together when he took office in Brazil in 2003. That suggests Humala will keep the existing economic model intact while intensifying the fight against poverty that afflicts a third of Peruvians.


Bear Creek (BCM.v): Nice Mr. Market gives you a 2nd chance to go long

Just when you thought it had run away from you, Bear Creek (BCM.v) gets whacked by quantity of people heading for a small exit door and and gives people who care about fundies more than momo a second chance to get in at way discounted prices.

Not quite as discounted as The IKN Weekly entry point of $3.80, but still the $4.65 I just saw printed offers great value. Don't say you weren't warned, but DYODD anyway.

PS: Looks like Iwnattos at Market Narrative called the dumpage on BCM.v well and bailed just before the worst damage. I've always admired trader-y types, those with a better sense of the very-short-term than I, but I'm not a jealous guy either. It's just a case knowing what I'm no good at and avoiding it. Kudos, Iwnattos.

Disclosure: Long BCM.v at $3.80, just in case you couldn't be bothered to read the above correctly. Happens more often than you think too.

ECU Silver ( Dammit

I just knew I was covering my short too early at 83c:

Never mind, a win's a win.

" longs, the crop that never fails."

risk off, blogger out

It took two days longer than your author thought it would (Monday was my guess), but today we have the markets finally spooked by the ridiculous ongoing Mexican Standoff hissyfit pissing contest between US Congress and The Hawaiian. Which means of course that Big Money will now reel in its underlings in the GOP and DEM camps and the whole mess gets its solution before August 2nd, cos if there's one thing more nervous than a million dollars, it's a million million dollars, Dr. Evil. So rather than watch the silliness realtime, your humble scribe is taking the morning off to go eat ice-cream with his daughter and buy something neither of us needs that'll make her look even prettier. Taloho, as they say down in Andalusia.

Chart of the day is..., long term chart, in various currencies.

For some reason or another, yesterday I found myself watching one of those TV "gold debates" they do on the biz channels up there in the We-Think-We're-Developed nations and as if on cue, the bearish guy on gold trotted out the argument that it's all to do with the dollar and because the dollar (the denominated currency of gold, as he put it) was weak then gold, the "antidollar" or inverse trade, was strong.

It was the typical typical dumbass in suit that has no freakin' idea about what he's talking about. As you can see, the dollar has tracked up in all the currencies featured, including the strong-performing Brazilian Real (other here are Japan's Yen and The Euro). As this next chart shows, it even works on a 12 month chart, with only the Braz Real putting up any sort of resistance to the norm...but gold's still up there.

So what does it mean when ALL currencies are weak against gold? Yes, it could be a bubble in theory, but I highly doubt that. People aren't (just) running away from the dollar, they're running away from all currencies that only have promises or nuclear weapons to back them up, and when the buying is led by world Central Banks and not the cud-chewing public it's most likely that the trend is still your friend on this one.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Smear tactics

Brent Cook appeared on BNN TV today and talked about a subject we've been following fairly closely here recently, namely the "smearing" of drill results. That's the way the BS end of the junior mining world will try to make out they have more economic rock than is actually the case and in the process pull the wool over sheep eyes (hopefully, that category doesn't include you, kind reader).

Anyway, it's good instructive stuff and Cook even uses one of our fave smear-merchants, the Casey Research pumped Bayfield Ventures (BYV.v), as one of his examples. Go see the video on this link right here and learn a bit more than Lobito would want you to know.

UPDATE: Oh, too much fun. BYV.v replies in an NR. Handbags at dawn, ladies.

PRODECO RK 5000, Chain Excavator - Video and News

Video and News
Bucket wheel and bucket chain excavators are important products designed for mining the overburden.

Click the figure below to see the video and news.

PRODECO RK 5000, Chain Excavator - Video and News.

P&H Mining Equipment 4100XPC, Electric Rope Shovel - Video and News

The P&H 4100XPC provides a 115 ton (104.3 metric ton) nominal payload capacity specifically designed to operate in mines for high production loading of 240 ton to 400 ton (218 metric ton to 363 metric ton) haul trucks and larger.
Click the figure below to see the video and news.

P&H Mining Equipment 4100XPC, Electric Rope Shovel - Video and News.

Le Dumbass In Suit, c'est vous

Here's a great line from the world of dismal science today:
"Economists see 20 percent chance of new recession in the next year -- Reuters poll."

So let's get this one straight, shall we? A whole bunch of people with an abysmal track record of predicting the future think that there's not going to be a recession in the next 12 months, but just in case there is a recession they're covering their overpaid fat asses and saying there's a chance of one, which will then give them the opportunity of saying "toldyaso" later. 

And we pay these people. 

And we pay reporters to report and do polls on what these people think. 

And we think they're stupid?

Dear Lobito: Are we allowed to stop buying East Asia Minerals (EAS.v) yet?

Or is the July 2011 Casey Research advice still good? After all you did say that:
"We believe the first pass resource will grow rapidly and continue to see the recent sell-off as an opportunity."

Or pray tell, Mr. James, does the fact that the Pres/CEO of EAS.v, Michael Hawkins, has resigned this morning change anything?
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - July 26, 2011) - East Asia Minerals Corporation (TSX VENTURE:EAS - News) announces changes to its management structure, effective immediately. Michael Hawkins has resigned as CEO-President-Director of East Asia, and is replaced by yada yada continues here
Mind you, it's hardly important, is it Lobito? After all it's only a 56% loss 57.7% loss (updated after the bell) in the three months that you've been reco'ing this stock and these minor details are best forgotten round Casey Research, aren't they? So just take the advice of your controller at Casey, deny everything and never apologize. It's the American Way after all.

Petrobras (PBR): "We don't give a crap about posting a profit"

Your author read this report this morning from Mercopress and his memory was jolted. Here's how the note kicks off:
Tuesday, July 26th 2011 - 13:29 UTC

Petrobras plans to double oil output by 2015 and exit debt market in 10 years

Brazil’s government managed Petrobras said its plan to more than double oil output will boost cash flow and eliminate the need to tap debt markets after about 10 years. Profits from oil sales will be enough to cover operating and debt costs starting in about 10 years, said Chief Financial Officer Almir Barbassa.

For sure that sounds smart cos going overboard with debt and all that isn't a good thing, correct Mr. Obama? But the flipside to that is a Petrobras (PBR) that's not going to care much about bottom line profits while it gets its burden lowered. Which reminded me of these words posted in 2008 and then August of 2009 by yours truly:
"It's at this point the plain, boring, simple fact that Petrobras is a state run company needs emphasizing. Bottom line results are not the be-all-and-end-all of PBR's corporate philosophy. Never have been and never will be. Do you honestly believe that the company will continue to pay enormous dividends to foreign shareholders while at the same time taking out massive debt lines to pay for the capex? If so, you are in for a rude awakening.
"So I'm still neutral on Petrobras stock. I'm reasonably bullish on the company and what it will do for Brazil in the long term future, but because shareholders are not the raison d'etre of PBR there's no reason why you or I should prefer it over CVX, COP, XOM or whatever other big oil strikes your fancy."

The original piece was entitled, "Petrobras: Great for Brazil, not so great for shareholders". So check how PBR has done in relation to big world oil plays like XOM and COP on that chart above and consider that a dumbass spoutmouth blogger got it right while the dude in NYC that got his new Porsche funded by you was insisting on the utter future crunchy wonderfulness of PBR all that time.  And DYO freakin' DD one time.

Chart of the day is... zinc, 60 day price:

Think Zinc

Monday, July 25, 2011

Peru's new ministers

This evening the last pieces were officially put into place and we have the whole of the new Ministerial cabinet that starts work when Ollanta Humala becomes President on July 28th, just three days away. Here we go with the list:

  • Prime Minister: Salomón Lerner Ghitis
  • Finance Minister: Miguel Castilla Rubio
  • Interior Minister/Home Secretary: Oscar Valdés Dancuart
  • Production Minister: Kurt Burneo Farfán
  • Minister for Overseas Relations: Rafael Roncagliolo
  • Foreign and Tourism Minister: José Luis Silva Martinot
  • Defense Minister:  Daniel Mora Ballón
  • Justice Minister: Francisco Eguiguren Praelli
  • Health Minister: Alberto Tejada Noriega
  • Education Minister: Patricia Salas O'Brien
  • Mining & Energy Minister: Carlos Herrera Descalzi
  • Transport & Communictaions Minister: Carlos Paredes Rodríguez
  • Women's Minister: Aída García Naranjo
  • Environment Minister: Ricardo Geisecke Sara Lafosse
  • Culture Minister: Susana Baca de la Colina
  • Employment Minister: Rudecindo Vega Carreazo
  • Agriculture Minister: Miguel Caillaux Zazzali
  • Housing, Construction and Sanitary Services Minister: René Cornejo Diaz

Of all those, the one that should concern foreigners looking in the most is the appointment of Miguel Castilla as FinMin and it's one that the markets have already applauded. As for the most important minister in the new Ollanta government, that one's easy. It's whoever succeeds Castilla in his post, so give that a year or 18 months to happen.

How to use Twitter for business (a free e-book)

So here's this week's freebie offer. Click here to order your free gratis for nothing (no credit card details, no stupid personal questions, just a simple "name and job" form) e-book all about getting the most out of Twitter for business (and although i was skeptical personally, gotta say I use Twitter a lot these days and find it's a link to my a/c fwiw).

Anyway, back to the point here. You get smart on Twitter and I get some commish for sending you to the page. Deal! Do it now.
How to Use Twitter for Business: A Beginner's Guide
"How to Use Twitter for Business: A Beginner's Guide"
Learn how to use Twitter to extend your reach, create buzz, listen to and network with your customers and prospects.
Twitter is one of the most powerful social networks for your business. Why? Because it is a relationship building and maintenance tool. In this practical, how-to eBook you'll learn specifically how to twitter for marketing, PR and customer service. You will learn how to use Twitter to:
  • Develop and promote your brand
  • Interact with your customer base
  • Track what people are saying about your company and brand
  • Create buzz around upcoming events
  • Help individual employees act as liaisons to the public
  • Promote other content you've created, including webinars, blog posts or podcasts
  • Develop direct relationships with bloggers and journalists for potential PR placement
Offered Free by: HubSpot, Inc.
Other Resources from: HubSpot, Inc.

Continental Gold ( in situ valuations at Buritica

With decently sourced jungledrum rumours and heresay and whispers and all that jazz saying the Continental Gold ( is about to release a 43-101 resource count for its Buritica project in Colombia of three million ounces of contained gold, your author has been asked by third parties to consider valuing those ounces in situ. Here's a quick calculation table that assumes the following:
  • The rumored 3m oz Au resource count is correct (we'll find out soon enough, but that's the word form Brisbane anyway).
  • Current shares outstanding count of 107.3m
  • Tonight's closing price of CAD$7.53, as well as other prices up and down the scale for comparative purposes
  • U$1 = CAD$0.95
We also back out the current working capital at, assumed at a round U$100m and once all that's cone here's the chart that your humble scribe's XLS spits out:

So with all those assumptions, especially the loose-lipped Australian one about the resource number, we're pricing up those underground ounces at U$250 a pop. Waddya say Ari? That seems expensive to you too?

Pssst! Can you keep a secret? DYODD

PS: Oh yeah, best to disclose in this post: No position in

Hey, remember when James West bullshitted the world about Seafield Resources (SFF.v)....

...and told everyone that it was "the next Ventana Gold" without even understanding the first thing about the drill results it published back then?

Well it's not.
The last nail in this dog's coffin came this morning, with the publication of the remaining holes in West's Hail Mary pass, the Dosquebradas zone at the site. Ain't going nowhere guys, not with the grades you found.

So the only question remaining is to why why it always falls to IKN to call bullshit on the snake-oil salesmen of this world such as James West? C'mon guys, somebody else wanna do this job too?

Chart of the day is....

...yawn how boring, another record for gold.

Still on the road, it's just that this road got da wifi and your author got 30 minutes to use it. The 21st century, full of surprises.

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Perpendicular Bisector, Theorems and Problems

Click the figure below to see the index.

Perpendicular Bisector, Theorems and Problems.

Pool/Billiards and Geometry (Angles, Circles, Rectangle, Simmetry)

Click the figure below to see the index.

Pool/Billiards and Geometry (Angles, Circles, Rectangle, Simmetry).

Pool or Pocket Billiards and Geometry. Reflection Symmetry - Video and News

Click the figure below to see the video and news.

Pool or Pocket Billiards and Geometry. Reflection Symmetry - Video and News.

On the road

Your humble scribe won't be around much til Monday evening earliest. Got trips to make and horizons to stare upon. We leave you in the capable hands of Jack:
"Isn't it true that you start your life a sweet child, believing in everything under your father's roof? Then comes the day of the Laodiceans, when you know you are wretched and miserable and poor and blind and naked, and with the visage of a gruesome, grieving ghost you go shuddering through nightmare life."
And this, too:

The IKN Weekly, out now

 "I am serious. And don't call me Shirley."

IKN116 has just been sent to subscribers. It's a bit heavier on the Mbs this week thanks to photos included, so I hope it gets through to your mailboxes ok. If not, you know the number to call.