Another friend is at PDAC....

....a different one that goes by the public name of "T" (enlightening, huh?). He sent me the following this morning and, as it's quickly dawning on me that readers of IKN do a far better job of script than I can ever do, I got permission to paste it up here. He just said yes, so here it is:

Hi,

Just saw an announcement that Magma is going to buy Plutonic, then looked at PCC’s chart.

It’s had some spikes as high and sudden a couple of times times before, but is it coincidence that this happened just before the announcement?  Another one to add to the list you posted on your blog.

Interesting that MXY is diversifying now.  I have looked at PCC in the past, not closely, but on a cursory look it showed clean, and I think they’ve got some high profile financing behind them, but I haven’t looked at them recently.  Maybe the She-Viking has put the fear of Elves into Beaty and he’s looking for something to offset Iceland if it doesn’t go his way?

Your friend at PDAC has given you some interesting feedback.  I caught and can offer less than he did, but zipped into PDAC for a few hours.

I saw the James West “5 for 100 in 8-12 every month”, too (unless we both remember wrong), and was as “amused” as your PDAC friend.

I liked Cook’s presentation.  His “bullshit” comment to the $/oz in the ground was well received by the audience, but I didn’t really think through the comment on margin per oz like your PDAC friend.  I joined the scrum after he left the room, and listened to his responses as people peppered him with “What do you think of Colombia?”, “What do you think of Golden-Pile-o’-Dirt.v?”, and so on.  Not a forum for in-depth responses, but I was impressed with the geo and $ knowledge he showed, his (relative) candour and his willingness to decline comment where he felt he was unqualified to do so.  I need to go check out his newsletter.

Unlike Greg McCoach (I needed to sit for a bit, and he was talking), who comes across as ready with an opinion on anything and everything, whether he knows anything about it or not.  He used “Golden Dildo” to describe all the juniors not worth anything.  Maybe funny around a table over beers, but a bit low-grade for a public talk.

I swung by DMM’s booth a couple of times, and only managed to get Jaeger.  His comments: expect one to four months for negotiations, but this is Ecuador and the government works slowly, while in practically the same breath “Robert’s a hard worker with contacts in the government who’s really great at making things happen.”  Really?

I also went by MFL’s booth and tried to pump Hackshaw (again, didn’t manage to pin anyone higher up) on what he sees as blue-sky on gold production if everything went super-duper, but, as I expected, he wasn’t budging.

So I failed at squeezing anything useful out of either.

The Chilean miner escape capsule was cool.  There was praise on a posterboard for the ingenuity of the engineers who designed it (actually, them – there were 3.)  This makes for a nice presentation, but the design and construction were relatively simple, which is not criticism, but praise.  Not trying to get too clever was probably key to coming up with a working capsule the fastest possible.

Chart of the day is....

...the official attendances at PDAC over the last ten years (2002 to 2011) including organizer's estimates for this year.

My, haven't you grown! Data from several PDAC NRs, for example this one

PDAC update, the James West guru bullshit show

Hey, remember James West? You know, that self-appointed stock guru dumbass that called "accumulate to $1" on the recent BS pump job Seafield Resources (SFF.v)....the guy that got his flock into Southwestern Resources the day AFTER the Boka gold salting scandal hit...yeah, that's the one. Well, this mail was just received from one of your author's superduper spies at PDAC concerning James West's appearance at a presentation today and IKN passes it on with no further comment.

"Apparently he pulled out a crystal ball, literally, and said he picks 5 stocks every month that will double in 12-18 months at his workshop here at pdac- Jesus Christ!

Well, there is one comment worth making to West, which is this:

A friend is at PDAC....

...and wrote me a mail. It was so good that I asked him if I could re-print it on the blog. He agreed as long as I used the slightly scrubbed version below (I won't go into why he wanted to scrub a little...suffice to say that he doesn't want to do jailtime in Canada). Here's the result, enjoy:

The investment fundies class today was fun... but my stomach, and 3 hours of sleep, were killing me so I skipped the lunch and the afternoon half. I missed "how to build a mine" with James Whyte of the OSC, formerly at Northern Miner (very good speaker in 2 morning lectures, and very boots-on-the-ground), which is okay as I've got the Hard Rock Miners' Handbook and the email of the guy who put it out. I also missed the 2 separate sections on Discounted Cash Flow, which is fine as it seems to be all voodoo and number-massaging, and all I seem to need to know is how to do forensics on an NPV to look for bullshit. I already massage NPV calcs for work, so I know what bullshit they are.

I might want to let Gary T. know that Clifton Star was one of the two examples used for calculating value of non-producers - though the class was mostly bankers, so I wouldn't expect them to run out and cause a price spike Monday AM with buys at market like we get with IKN recs. The guy running that part of the class was Brian Christie from Desjardins. That section of the class was more like a BNN pump than anything informative.

Tomorrow I'll be seeing Kaiser, Fulp, Cookie and Doody, and I'll be hitting the booths. Seems like there's a BNN ministage on 800 level, so maybe these guys will be giving short interviews as well? Might want to keep your eyes open so you can link to another Cook appearance.


In case you've never been there, btw, this takes place at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre South Wing. The South Wing is pretty much entirely underground. What a great place to talk about mining - three floors below sunlight. I imagine if I look around long enough I'll find a Balrog.


But this is even better:


http://www.pdac.ca/pdac/conv/2011/presentations-rooms.aspx#Casey_Research


They gave Casey a room. 

Resource investing master (ooh!) class: How to make money speculating in junior resources
Casey Research
Monday, March 7
2:00 pm – 5:00 pm
Room 717B

Bolivia at PDAC, Sunday March 6th

PDAC kicks off in Toronto this weekend and on the first day there's an interesting looking conference scheduled that puts Bolivia in the spotlight. Here's the page, here's the overview presentation and here's the blurb below. If you're looking for an interesting sit-down on day one Sunday March 6th you could do much worse than this:

Mining in Bolivia
Bolivia, Ministry of Mining and the Embassy of the Plurinational State of
Sunday, March 6
2:00 pm – 5:00 pm
Room 714B

The Embassy of the Plurinational State of Bolivia in Canada, in coordination with the Ministry of Mines of Bolivia will participate in PDAC 2011 to demonstrate the mining potential offered by this historical mining country that boasts of mineral deposits in almost all its territory, most of which remains unexplored.

It should be emphasized that the Bolivian Political Constitution guarantees legal certainty and respect for private investment in this sector, which in turn has to conform to the current mining legislation in the context of having "Partners, not Bosses.”

At this juncture the government of Bolivia prioritizes the mining sector to establish itself as a pillar of the national economy, with diversified industrial development, from exploration to smelting or refining of minerals, complemented by processes of transformation, industrialization and commercialization, generating decent and stable employment, promoting sustainable development of communities in the mine areas that demonstrates that it is possible to have well functioning, technically advanced, environmentally sustainable and socially accepted mining.

The session will include:

2:55 - 3:00	Opening Remarks by the Ambassador of Bolivia to Canada, H.E Edgar Torrez M.
3:00 - 3:40	Presentation titled, Mining in Bolivia by the Deputy Minister of Mining Development and Metallurgical Production, H.E. Hector Cordoba E. For the Presentation Summary click here*
3:40- 4:00	Steve Busby,Chief Operating Officer of Pan American Silver Corp: A succesful experience of a mining company in Bolivia.
4:00 - 5:00	Questions & Answers

For the presentation summary click here

Contact Information: bolivianembassy@bellnet.ca
Tel (613) 236-5730 ext 223

All are welcome. Registration is not required.

Junior Mining News Releases: An appreciation

On this first trading day of PDAC 2010, this humble scribe would like to take time out and thank the investment relations departments of junior mining companies based in Canada. You are obviously keen to make sure that I don't get bored or lack reading material this sunny morning, the only possible explanation for having sent me 64 news releases concerning 64 separate mining companies in the space of time between 7 am this morning and now, 09:30am and the opening bell. Of course, this count of 64 news releases does not include the French language doubles nor the corrected NRs.

By way of reciprocation for these wonderful treats that await mine eyes, I would just like to offer the junior mining investment relations community two small observations:

1) Are you all really this stupid?

2)

Postcard from PDAC, 2010

Last year, reader Codename NRI (Nondescript Retail Investor) sent over some postcards with observations from the PDAC show in Toronto. The good news is that PDAC 2010 looks set for the same welcome deliveries and here's the first, as received by this humble scribe mere minutes ago.

Hey, hey, Otto. Nondescript Retail Investor (NRI) here in Toronto at Peedac and feeling some wear and tear the morning after the couple of receptions I visited after the presentations and booths were shuttered. A few highlights and low lifes:

Background: 2 years ago at Peedac when I was more dumb and gullible I believed the pitch of the slicks at explorationist Orko Silver (that OK.v would be taken out imminently by its JV partner, Pan American Silver) and shortly afterwards I bought shares at around $1.80 for a quick flip.

Spotting the OK booth and the guy there sitting in his couch and doing nothing, I sat down beside him and asked him when the OK exit strategy would manifest as I bought shares nearly 2 years ago and I was under water and I really would like this PAAS takeout to come to pass. This very glib guy told me that timing was PAAS call; and then exclaimed in dismay ‘you could have done very well; you didn’t buy at the top of the market, did you? Why didn’t you buy at 28c?’ (sidebar: the level the share price dropped to in late 2008) And then this he proceeded with his ‘all your own fault’ (conceded) ministration to lecture me on the old adage ‘ if you like a stock at $1.00, you should like it better at 70c’ ( yeah well, and if I believed a story at $1.80 and the price tag then gets discounted to 28c and the promised land is no where to be seen, I really am feeling that I’ve been conned and that my critical faculties need work. The OK guy should have been speaking in the Investors Forum

Yesterday a whole day of speakers, identified as letterwriters and analysts: Mickey Fulp, John Doody, Jay Taylor, Bob Moriarty, John Kaiser, David Coffin, Greg McCoach, Brent Cook. There were more, concluding with Rick Rule, a portion of whose presentation I listened to – and yes indeedy, Rick Rule did offer the adage that before you buy a stock for $1, you really should ask yourself if you’re going to like it better such that you’ll buy more at 70c). Returning to the couch at the OK booth… the glib guy offered me solace : PAAS was working on a feasibility study which would be finished in about 6 months and then it would happen… ‘hold on to your shares; you’ll get about five bucks’ . ‘But, but, but,’ said I , ‘doesn’t PAAS have a lot on its development plate with the Aquiline takeout?’ ‘Ah grasshopper, they’ll give you shares and that’s good; that’ll be no problem; PAAS shares are very liquid.’ ‘But, but, but, just because they release a feasibility study in 6 months (maybe) doesn’t mean that a takeout will immediately follow!’ ‘Grasshopper, they HAVE to make a production decision!’ Yup. I got it now and I’m feeling very mollified. So happy to be here at Peedac for these therapeutic encounters.

I went to Brent Cook’s presentation because I am all ears for what he has to say; and he started with a little intro identifying what he looks for with his last bullet being an exit strategy. He then invited Q’s which was an interesting succession of ‘waddaya think of this stock? waddaya think of that stock’. Stepping up to the mike, I noted that he had once admitted owning MAG Silver and reco’d it, so I asked him whether he still owned MAG.to and whether he thought they had an exit strategy which would materialize. Brent Cook said he still owns, that he believes the share NAV to be at least $15 and that sooner or later, be it two months or two years, Penoles will HAVE to take out MAG.to. Interesting… another fly in the ointment, best made plans of mice and men story unfolding or to be endured.

Observation : Rick Rule is a very captivating speaker. After his 20 minute presentation which was the last of the day, there was a scrum with about 50 people crowding around him and Rick Rule held court for at least an hour and a half.

I went to the silver reception at the Royal York organized by CPM on behalf of Silver Wheaton, Fortuna Silver, Endeavour Silver, Orko Silver (hopefully the beer I drank was charged to them), Great Panther and others. It was a very crowded affair which I attended last year as well It just occurred to me; ECU Silver (ECU.to) was one of the silver hosts last year and they were NOT last night. Huh! Checking the directory now I see that they do not even have a booth here at Peedac this year. Well, well, well…money must be really really really tight and credit cards are all max’ed out. Then again, maybe they’re all burning the midnight oil back in Velardena as they attempt to put the finishing touches on the fabrication of dore bar number 7 for the quarter.

More later, with much to tell …gotta go do day 2.

Final word: IR people manning booths at PDAC today, make sure you look after the rank and file when they come and visit you and not just the mining great'n'good. Cos one of them out there is NRI.

One for all you Don Coxe fans

I know there are plenty of you out there, too.

Don Coxe couldn't make PDAC this year for his own reasons even though he was booked to speak. However the keynote address he planned to give is now available on this link at Republic of Mining. Go over and have a read, good stuff.

Postcard from PDAC: An addition to yesterday

NRI must have had a good night's sleep, as our superspy just remembered something else that went on over at the Petaquilla stand and wanted to add to yesterday's missive. Looks like Goldex is looking to sell its El Pato property in Guatemala and is not being very subtle about it, either. Here's NRI:

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Darn it, Otto, there's something important I meant to include in my report of my interrogation of Pet.rep, the CFO of Petaquilla Minerals...allow me:

Our discussion did not have a natural conclusion with our parting being preceded by a courteous adieu and a handshake. What happened was this guy in a suit with an exhibitor's name tag which said GOLDEX rushed up, butted in on my tete a tete with Pet.rep. and said to Pet.rep. : Want to buy a gold project in Guatemala? And Pet.rep. responded: Yes. We'll talk.

Otto, my point is not to draw attention to what a rude little prick the guy in a suit with a GOLDEX name tag was but to tell you how it shocked and amazed me that this Master of the Universe should be so indiscreet and careless about letting me in on his wheeling and dealing. I mean we are not talking about their dealing baseball cards or dope. Imagine if I were chatting with Yamana's Peter Marrone. What do you think the chances are that Tye Burt might rush up, interrupt, and say: Hey Peter. Wanna buy a gold project in Russia? Only a Kupolla million...

Isn't there some rule about a level playing field? Well, I intend to watch the share price action of PTQ.to and Goldex Resources - GDX.v - and if it develops that I could have made a profitable trade on this inside information to which I, but not all members of the public, was privy, I will send a postcard to the OSC as well.

Gotta go. No time here to tell you about my meeting Vena's Juan Vegarra the other night...just as well...my heart's still pounding.

later,

NRI

What Desjardins thought of PDAC this year

Desjardins published its review of PDAC 2009 today. They diplomatically label it a "less wild party" (you saw the photos sent in yesterday by people that don't have to wear suits and speak prettily, yeah?) and bulletpoint the first page with:

• Industry sees a ‘difficult year ahead’ with a lack of available financing and no new major base metal discoveries
• Review of 4Q08 results released so far; most companies in ‘reasonable’ financial condition at the end of 2008, but metal prices have fallen further so far this year
• Rate of production cutbacks continues to outstrip rise in inventories

Finally, let me point out that I have no idea where you might be able to get a copy of this client-only report and read it yourself, but if you're lucky enough to find one it's a worthwhile good read.

Postcard from PDAC: Low lies and high fives

Superspy "Codename NRI" is back with a second missive, direct from the heaving bosom of PDAC. If you missed the first, here it is. So here we go with the second NRI view of things. Enjoy (because I did...in fact it's a hoot).

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NRI here, with a few tales to tell...

I thought I should act on the suggestions of Otto, the incisive analyst, and locate a few of his interesting miners. I spotted the Petaquilla Minerals booth; and got straight to the point:

NRI: Aren't you the guys that have an unpaid fine?

Pet. rep: No. We don't owe a fine.
NRI: What do you mean?

Pet.rep. (defensively): They don''t have the authority to impose a fine.

NRI: Who?
Pet.rep.: The environment group. Only the Ministry. Nothing is being enforced against us.

NRI: Are you saying that the Ministry hasn't imposed a fine?
Pet.rep. : Not that I'm aware of.

NRI: Who are you?
Pet.rep.: Bassam Moubarak, the CFO.

NRI: The CFO...so, if a fine were imposed, you would know.
Pet.rep. : I'm not aware of any fine. A misconception in the media.

NRI: Which media?

Pet rep. responded but I didn't catch the reference. It sounded like a Panamanian newspaper.

This ended our exchange and I hurried off to a bench to sit and make a transcript of the questions and answers, while the exact words (as I recalled them) were fresh in my mind.

Now, Otto, if you find out that my interview might be of any help to Panamanian authorities I am responsive to providing evidence and would be delighted to have an expense paid trip to Panama for that purpose.

Digressing, I paid a visit to the booth of Eastmain Resources - ER.to - explorationists with some great projects in the James Bay area of Quebec, Canada, one of which is a JV with Goldcorp, which is developing the Roberto Mine on an adjacent property. ER is one of my favourites (I have shares) and I like their people a lot. I talked to one of the geologists, Cathy B, and she told me this PDAC has been very busy for them. I asked Cathy whether she and husband Don (ER's CEO) exhibited at the show in Phoenix last week. Cathy told me they had and, though they expected that it might be quiet, it was very very busy. Cathy told me that a coin dealer was set up right behind them; and he sold out his entire inventory - $173,000 in coins - in the first three hours of the show.

Returning to Otto's crib sheet, I really wanted to find Rob McEwen. Well my buddy, JG, informed me that the

McEwen companies - Rubicon Minerals, U.S.Gold, Lexam, Mineras Andes - were hosting a reception Tues eve at 1King St - a tony location in the power vortex of Toronto. Off I went - to this, my fourth reception so far, with the first three having been in suites in the Fairmont Royal York and the Intercontinental Hotel. Digressing again, the other night at the Royal York, a staff person told me that the PDAC is their biggest and busiest engagement of the year - and the one during which the most booze is served. Many many receptions are hosted simultaneously in each of several hotels. The McEwen reception was not in a suite - but in a ballroom! - and it was packed. I was given 2 bar tickets upon entry. Waitstaff circulated with platters of hors d'ouvres; rep's from each of the McEwen companies had stations to receive and respond to questions; and a photographer had a station to take one's photo as one held a 400oz. gold bar.

My buddy JG arrived and we connected. He told me that McEwen must be economizing, because last year, the bar was open - no 2 drink limitation - and there was a lot more food. I hadn't sighted Rob McEwen in the packed ballroom but JG had and pointed him out. I approached Mr. McEwen and waited for the couple who were chatting with him to finish; and then, responded to his greeting by thanking him for hosting this reception. I told him I had been following the Minera Andes story and was really glad that he had jammed Hochschild. Mr. McEwen responded that they deserved to be jammed. I asked whether he had heard about Inca Kola News; He had not. I told him this guy Otto had this blog and encouraged anyone spotting McEwen to highfive. Gawd love him, Mr McEwen immediately responded with the highfive. Anybody reading this: he is such an accessible guy. I have had an opportunity to speak with him before and my buddy JG told me that he once called one of the McEwen companies; and Rob McEwen answered the phone and was absolutely responsive to the questions which JG posited.

Wearing down here, I wanted to report on my meeting the charismatic and very impressive Juan Vegarra, the CEO of Vena Resources, and the question I didn't get to ask him; but I must sign off.

more later...
NRI

Related Post
Postcard from PDAC: Where have all the people (and freebies) gone?

Photo of PDAC '09 (and a snippet of Ecuador news)

...sent in by a regular reader.

Thank you, regular reader.

Meanwhile, Ecuador's Vice Minister of Mining José Serrano (I think that's his title) put on the full trumpet display at PDAC yesterday afternoon and announced to a packed audience of 80 people that Ecuador was now officially a country free of legal bullshit for miners and that everybody could mine. Word is that Serrano has kept his job all this time because he's the only one in the mining ministry that can speak English

So here's Corriente's PR last night on the issue (CTQ was so excited it couldn't wait for this morning). Expect similar literature from the other Ecuador-exposed miners. By the way, they chose an 80-seat capacity room to make the announcement so as not to embarrass him.

UPDATE: Another regular reader sends in his PDAC '09 photo. Thank you, other regular reader.

Postcard from PDAC: Where have all the people (and freebies) gone?

Codename NRI is the brand new IncaKolaNews Canada correspondent (ok ok...it's a friend at the show). Anyway, NRI sent this dispatch with some impressions of PDAC day one (Sunday). Hope you enjoy:

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Nondescript Retail Investor (NRI) corresponding from the PDAC (Prospectors & Developers Assoc of Canada) conference in Toronto, Ontario...

General impressions from yesterday, Sunday, the first day: Compared to last year which was like a moshpit, the turn out Sunday was noticeably sparser. So, the setting is a big convention centre next to the Rogers Centre (home of the Toronto Blue Jays) and a longer walk than many attendees would venture from the downtown hotels at which they're staying. Hence, there are free shuttles every 10 minutes during peak times from 4 or 5 of the major hotels. Riding in from the Sheraton Four Seasons Hotel at about noon yesterday (not a peak time - a half hour's worth of ride), there were only 5 of us on this big bus; riding away at about 5pm (peak time) to the Delta Chelsea there were, I believe, 8 of us on the big bus. One guy, an exhibitor, told me that exhibitor registrations were down 25% from last year; another guy told me that that there were also many registrants who didn't show up.

The convention floor for the Investors' Exchange - my territory - is maybe the size of a football field; as an NRI I have free access to this territory as I have been issued a large blue bordered name tag which distinguishes me from an Exhibitor or a Trade Show participant. Adjacent to the Investors' Exchange is another large area - maybe another football field size area? - which is the site of the Trade Show - government types and professional services to the mining business people and equipment vendors , etc - to which I do not have access, as the special name tag facilitating admission to that space costs more hundreds of dollars than I wish to spend and also I have no interest in buying a man portable drill or speaking with a representative of the Ministry of Mines in, say, Sierra Leone. Last year, I did manage to sneak past a guard - who, by prior arrangement, was looking the other way - to get into the Trade space in order to speak with a geologist with the Mexican government; so, I do have a sense about what's on the other side.

Anyway, back to the turnout - and the Investors' Exchange - no exaggeration...I believe the Exhibitors and their entourage easily outnumbered the Exhibitees with their blue bordered name tags and black cloth satchels for stashing promo material, etc. And, predominantly, the Exhibitors were clustered together chatting with each other with no captive Exhibitees to whom to promote.

And many booths were unmanned/unwomanned. For example, I passed the Dia Bras Exploration booth; but was unable to posit Otto's suggested question about whether they had financing as there was no one there. And I went to another exhibitor, the CEO of which I wished to speak with, three times; and no one was ever there.

Another observation: No freebies. Last year, everybody had complimentary pens and notepads and drink holders and raffle tickets and gold foil covered chocolates and stacks of Interra maps and encyclopedic compendiums of analysts reports and satchels and water bottles and on and on...this year, I was hard pressed to get a free pen. And no kidding, I believe there is even a dearth of paper promotional material of the companies themselves - so all these white clothed display tables are considerably more barren. As I talked to an IR person of one explorer company I reached to pick an foldered investor's package; and the IR guy intervened and offered to email it to me.