Bear Creek (BCM.v): Compare and contrast

1) Bear Creek's CEO this morning:

"Bear Creek has received strong local community support on our Santa Ana project..."

2) A video of the 10,000 people in the regional capital, Puno, to protest the presence of BCM.v at Santa Ana yesterday.

You be the judge.

UPDATE: Question for Andrew Kaip of BMO and Brad Humphrey of Raymond James, both of whom came out with "hmmm, maybe a small problem but nothing to worry about" calls on BCM.v this morning (and between them probably caused that early morning spike to $7.60):

"Feeling stupid yet, dudes?"

Subscribers: Expect an update mail on BCM this evening.

UPDATE 2: I've been told to put the following up by a subscriber, so I will. We first featured this story in IKN105 for subscribers and told them to be careful about BCM.v, but the excerpt below is from the article on BCM.v in IKN106, dated May 15th, when the Weekly warned subscribers of trouble to came at BCM.v and we even set an entry point target of $6.50 for the stock...which turned out to be exactly 9c too high as BCM bounced off a $6.41 low. Just luck I guess....

"...considering the smaller size of Santa Ana (see reserve/resource table here below) and offsetting that with its (theoretical at least) shorter timeline to production (Santa Ana is due commissioned in 2012 according the official company literature at least), your author currently weights around 25% to 30% of BCM.v valuation in this project. It is in trouble and the recent share price discount reflects that, but the feeling is that the market hasn’t fully grasped the depth of the trouble for BCM due to this protest that is not going to go away and is on course to halt development either indefinitely or definitively. So although the company has seen some discount, if your author’s read on this story is correct and Santa Ana becomes a no-go project there’s good reason to expect further selling in BCM and therefore a potential entry point of $6.50 on bad news is around the place where I’d consider a value entry position, this based on a rough 15% discount to current prices. This isn’t some hard-and-fast target price, but more like a marker that will do just fine for the time being."

And then this is an excerpt from IKN107, last Sunday May 22nd:

"...as mentioned last week, I have a scratched out $6.50 price point as a potential for entry based on the larger and politically much less risky Corani project (which is still in the region of Puno but in a much safer location). If it takes two weeks or six months to reach that $6.50 level, there’s no particular problem here as I’m not long and have no rush to take up a position either. It remains to be seen how the market reacts to today’s news that they will be holding on to a dead money situation through a volatile election and into the next six months at least, something that also definitively scuppers company plans for the previously projected start of mining in 2012 at Santa Ana.
 
Final point: Why this ongoing coverage about BCM.v? Because there’s a chance of getting in cheap on the world-class Corani project here, that’s all."

Goldman (GS) calls bull on commodities (again)

Find on this link your very own download of the Goldman PDF out this morning (Tues May 24) saying loveydovey things about commodities going forward, but as a sample here's some of the script:

May 24, 2011

Turning more bullish as supply-shock concerns fade

Although near-term downside risk remains as markets adapt to a slower growth environment with supply-shock concerns fading, we now believe that the risk/reward once again favours being long commodities. Accordingly, we are shifting back to a near- to medium-term overweight recommendation, reiterating our long-term overweight and recommending fresh longs in oil, copper and zinc.


We remain structurally bullish commodities
Although we remain structurally bullish and have long argued the structural case for being long, timing does remain critical. This was evident in the recent market correction, which brought commodities down roughly 10% from their April highs. With prices now more inline with near-term fundamentals and price targets, we believe that the risk/reward once again favours being long commodities. Although the economy has likely shifted into a slower, but sustained, growth environment, we continue to expect that economic growth will likely be sufficient to tighten key supply constrained markets in 2H2011, leading to higher prices from current levels.
 
Raising oil price targets on persistent impacts from MENA events
We expect that the ongoing loss of Libyan crude oil production and disappointing Non-OPEC production will continue to tighten the oil market to critical levels in early 2012, with rising industry cost pressures likely to be felt this year. We are now embedding in our forecasts that Libyan production losses will lead to the effective exhaustion of OPEC spare capacity by early 2012. This raises our year-end Brent crude oil price forecast to $120/bbl from $105/bbl, our 12-month forecast to $130/bbl from $107/bbl and our end-2012 forecast to $140/bbl from $120/bbl.
 
Mid-cycle pause nearing a trough, creating upside to metal prices.
While a sharp decline in world economic growth remains a downside risk to commodity prices, we see the current slowdown in economic growth as part of a normal mid-cycle pause, partially driven by higher commodity prices, and therefore not a reason to expect commodity prices to decline substantially. Further, we believe that the recent evidence of economic weakness represents signs of a slowdown and not a downturn, which is reinforced by signs that Chinese metal demand has already returned with the SHFE-LME copper arb opening again, exchange inventories declining and the Shanghai copper forward curve moving into backwardation.

It then goes on to call long on things like copper gold and oil, but for me the most interesting call out of the Vampire Squid this morning is the new long call on zinc. Go read it for yourself to find out more.

Bahan Kuliah Genesa Bahan Galian

Bagi teman-teman Tambang Unhas yang membutuhkan materi Genesa Bahan Galian silahkan download materinya....!!!

1. Pendahuluan (pengenalan endapan bahan galian secara umum) :  DOWNLOAD
2. Morfologi badan bijih Endapan  : DOWNLOAD
3. Klasifikasi dan pembentukan Endapan Ekonomis : DOWNLOAD
4. Mendala Metalogenik : DOWNLAOD
5. Endapan Magmatik Cair : DOWNLOAD
6. Endapan Pegmatites dan Kontak Metasomatisme : DOWNLOAD
7. Endapan Hidrotermal  : DOWNLAOD
8. Endapan Porfiri : DOWNLOAD
9. Endapan Epitermal ( Endapan Ekomonis terbentuk) : DOWNLOAD
10. Genesa Endapan Mineral : DOWNLOAD 
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All Materi Genesis Bahan Galian : DOWNLOAD

SaLam Tambang dan salam Gali_Gali
Habib_El_Azizy

Chart of the day is....

...copper, May 13th to date.

Not much doubt that it's the most interesting metal on the market right now. Call me a fool, but I'm buying a copper junior this morning.

Geometry Problem 605: Circle, Square, Chord, Perpendicular, Metric Relations

Geometry Problem
Click the figure below to see the complete problem 605.

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Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v): There will be blood

The protest of locals against the presence of Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) at its Santa Ana project  in Puno Peru is now two weeks old and according to news reports, all roads are shut down tight and some 500 trucks are stuck on the border of Peru and Bolivia because of the blockages. Add to that the so-called 'high level commission' that went to the Puno region to try and mediate and sort the mess out last week, only to bug out after one day because the commission members got spooked by the 5000 strong anti-mining crowd that came to gently greet them in the city of Puno

And so yesterday evening we had a new development. Stuck on the last page of this document of military executive decrees and signed into effect yesterday Sunday May 22nd is this little segment of loveliness:

And for those of you not versed in the tongue of Cervantes, that says:

Sunday May 22nd 2011
Executive Power
Defense
R.S Nº 191-2011-DE- Authorizes the intervention of the armed forces to aid the Peru National Police Force in the district, province and department of Puno

As this order was published yesterday, it came into effect today and lasts until June 11th and amongst other powers it gives the right of the military to fire live rounds at its own people. In other words, President Twobreakfasts just authorized the entry of troops to clear the roadblocks made by protesters and if anyone out there gets an immediate flashback memory to a town called Bagua a couple of years ago or a protest at Tia Maria this year, you'll know what's likely to happen next unless the locals don't back down.

And all it takes is a cursory glance at the newsflow to understand that they won't back down, so prepare for a very nasty case of bad publicity, BCM.v IR people. DYODD and don't mess with the Aymara.

Using Weather To Teach Science and Math by NSSL, Interactive Mind Map

by National Severe Storms Laboratory, NSSL.
Why Radar Can't (Usually) See Tornadoes.

Graphic organizers are visual representations of knowledge, concepts or ideas.
Click the figure below to see the Interactive Mind Map.

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