Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Bear Creek (BCM.v): Compare and contrast

1) Bear Creek's CEO this morning:

"Bear Creek has received strong local community support on our Santa Ana project..."

2) A video of the 10,000 people in the regional capital, Puno, to protest the presence of BCM.v at Santa Ana yesterday.

You be the judge.

UPDATE: Question for Andrew Kaip of BMO and Brad Humphrey of Raymond James, both of whom came out with "hmmm, maybe a small problem but nothing to worry about" calls on BCM.v this morning (and between them probably caused that early morning spike to $7.60):

"Feeling stupid yet, dudes?"

Subscribers: Expect an update mail on BCM this evening.

UPDATE 2: I've been told to put the following up by a subscriber, so I will. We first featured this story in IKN105 for subscribers and told them to be careful about BCM.v, but the excerpt below is from the article on BCM.v in IKN106, dated May 15th, when the Weekly warned subscribers of trouble to came at BCM.v and we even set an entry point target of $6.50 for the stock...which turned out to be exactly 9c too high as BCM bounced off a $6.41 low. Just luck I guess....

"...considering the smaller size of Santa Ana (see reserve/resource table here below) and offsetting that with its (theoretical at least) shorter timeline to production (Santa Ana is due commissioned in 2012 according the official company literature at least), your author currently weights around 25% to 30% of BCM.v valuation in this project. It is in trouble and the recent share price discount reflects that, but the feeling is that the market hasn’t fully grasped the depth of the trouble for BCM due to this protest that is not going to go away and is on course to halt development either indefinitely or definitively. So although the company has seen some discount, if your author’s read on this story is correct and Santa Ana becomes a no-go project there’s good reason to expect further selling in BCM and therefore a potential entry point of $6.50 on bad news is around the place where I’d consider a value entry position, this based on a rough 15% discount to current prices. This isn’t some hard-and-fast target price, but more like a marker that will do just fine for the time being."

And then this is an excerpt from IKN107, last Sunday May 22nd:

"...as mentioned last week, I have a scratched out $6.50 price point as a potential for entry based on the larger and politically much less risky Corani project (which is still in the region of Puno but in a much safer location). If it takes two weeks or six months to reach that $6.50 level, there’s no particular problem here as I’m not long and have no rush to take up a position either. It remains to be seen how the market reacts to today’s news that they will be holding on to a dead money situation through a volatile election and into the next six months at least, something that also definitively scuppers company plans for the previously projected start of mining in 2012 at Santa Ana.

Final point: Why this ongoing coverage about BCM.v? Because there’s a chance of getting in cheap on the world-class Corani project here, that’s all."