Sunday, May 15, 2011

Peru Prez Polls, five pollsters in one chart

This weekend has seen four Peru pollsters publish new voter intention figures and here they all are on one chart that also includes the Datum poll out last Thursday that made the local market and currency rally:

Please note that all the polls shown here are for "valid votes" and do not include those polled that said they were either undecided or they'd spoil their ballot. As a general rule of thumb, there seems to be 20% of Peruvians in either of those categories and we can expect around half of them to make up their minds and vote for one or the other candidate. Or in other words, it's the undecideds that will eventually decide this race and there's still everything to play for.

Finally, as regards accuracy I personally would plump for the Ipsos/Apoyo people (green columns) as having the best track record and the ones least influenced by paymasters (yeah, that's diplomatic), although even they are open to crits because the owners are part of the Lima ruling class establishment. Find the full Ipsos/Apoyo poll linked here.