Argentina: Another Canadian brokerage crashes and burns on bad political risk call

I really don't know what it is about the Canadian brokerages and their über-sad track record of calling LatAm politics. Perhaps they just assume the situation they want to see and then visualize it so much that it becomes their own form of reality. But whatever it is, they are so pisspoor on calling politics in LatAm. Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela and all the rest, they just see what they want to see and put the cash of their clients in great danger as a result.

The latest LatAm PolRisk EpicFail comes from Alexandre Garcia of Raymond James, who early this week made a bullish call on Argentina's media company Grupo Clarin. Here's how Bloomie reported his call on October 5th:

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Grupo Clarin SA, Argentina’s biggest media company, may soar as much as 50 percent as President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s bid to tighten control over local broadcasters meets congressional opposition, according to Raymond James analyst Alexandre Garcia. CONTINUES HERE

The result of the vote was last night. The law passed 44 votes to 24, the opposition to the bill fell away and no changes were made whatsoever. Here's Bloomie again:

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s Senate approved a government-backed bill that puts new limits on television and radio ownership and will probably force Grupo Clarin SA, the country’s biggest media company, to sell off assets. CONTINUES HERE

Still think Clarín is good for a 50% pop, Alex?

Making predictions like the one Alexandre Garcia made and advising clients into stocks on the basis of "understanding what happens in Argentine politics" is the very worst sort of irresponsible. A thousand analysts have crashed and burned before this dude by trying to second-guess the murky world of Congressional politics and a thousand more will crash and burn going forward.

So therefore, Alexandre Garcia of Raymond James, you win this week's coveted award. Hopefully you'll learn from your basic, greenhorn mistake and not put the cash of your clients at risk like this again. But for the time being...

Argentina: Thugs in power

Guillermo Moreno (for it is he)

In a meeting in Argentina between two groups on September 14th, the head of one of the delegations said to the people on the other side of the negotiation:

"Outside I have my boys, experts in breaking backs and extracting eyes from those who talk*."

A scene from Goodfellas? Cocaine mafia, perhaps? Nope, that was Guillermo Moreno, the Minister of Interior Commerce and close ally to the leader of the country (and his wife, for that matter) talking to the delegation of media bosses about how he'd treat anyone who talked out of turn about the new media law.

The media group Clarín, in an ongoing spat with the Kirchnerist government, and currently fighting the passage of the new, controversial media law through congress (with the help of opposition friends) has now formally denounced Moreno on criminal charges. This chapter will be a lot of fun.

I did mention that Argentina is not a serious country, didn't it?


*the translation above captures the essence, but it's difficult to get a precise English version, mainly due to Argentine Spanish syntax. The exact phrase in Spanish is "Afuera tengo a mis muchachos, expertos en partirle la columna y hacerle saltar los ojos al que hable"

Solidarity with Censored Blog 'Que Te Pasa Clarín'

News from Argentina is not good for freedom of speech. The blog 'Que Te Pasa Clarín' (QTPC), set up by an ex-employee of the country's largest media group, has been gagged by court order after Clarín applied for an injunction against its publication. Right now all you see if you go to the QTPC front page is a "sorry, we've been taken off the air" message from the blog authors.

It's worth pointing out at this point the Clarín is Anti-Kirchner and the blogger behind QTPC is highly critical of the newspaper and its editorial line. Also, from when the blog kicked off in early April to today it has been severely critical of Clarín and often publishing embarrassing secrets that Clarín simply didn't want out in the public field. You can still access all 140 posts at QTPC at this Google search link, but instead of going to the page you need to click the 'CACHED' button of each entry. Those of you who do Spanish can find out all the juicy details that the shits at Clarín wanted to suppress.

IKN voices its total support for the blog QTPC and roundly condemns the bullyboy actions of Grupo Clarín, an enormous, monopolistic, publicly quoted media company (GCLA on the London Stock Exchange) that would be the first to scream blue murder if it were the object of press restrictions itself.


UPDATE: The story I linked to above on the first link ("been gagged by court order") was a specific report in Argentina's 'Critica' daily, but now it seems the story has been pulled and the linkgoes to the website's home page...no report anywhere on the site. Looks like Clarin has managed to gag its rival, too. Wowsers, what fascists! Here's a report on the closure from a site in Spain.