What was that definition of insanity that Einstein came up with again...?

1) In early 2011 the dumbass Canadian anal yst community drives their shareholders straight off a cliff by getting them into Coro Mining (COP.to) and promising them the environmental permit final approval is just one rubberstamp away, when in fact the dangers were crystal clear for anyone who actually understands how Argentine politics works.

2) Coro Mining (COP.to) is refused its permit last week and the stock tanks over 50% from an already low level (and way below the silly $1.80 and $2 targets bandied about by said anal ysts).

3) Same anal ysts now say that the permit denial is not as bad as it seems and that the project is merely being "delayed" a couple of years.

4) Same sheep clients actually believe this line and buy COP.to this morning.

The blind leading the blind.

Coro Mining (COP.to): The San Jorge project rejected by Mendoza's parliament

It was all set to be delayed (if that makes sense) until after the election on October 23rd, but yesterday the parliament of Mendoza made a somewhat surprising decision and decided to debate and vote on whether the San Jorge copper project owned by Coro Mining (COP.to) would be given its permission to operate.

The result: The San Jorge mine has been rejected by the parliament of Mendoza. It's not going to be a good day for holders of COP.to shares, folks

UPDATE: This post went up at 07:58am, some 32 minutes before the bell. Ten minutes later the stock was halted. Just sayin'

UPDATE 2: Gawd, it took 'em long enough. Here's the NR, just released with less than 90 minutes' playtime left before the close:

Press Release Source: Coro Mining Corp. On Thursday August 25, 2011, 2:38 pm

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Aug. 25, 2011) - Coro Mining Corp. ("Coro" or the "Company") (TSX:COP - News) regrets to announce that the Provincial Legislature of Mendoza has voted against the ratification of the Company's approved Environmental Impact Declaration ("EID"), notwithstanding that the EID was conditional, inter alia, upon the Company's Argentinean subsidiary, Minera San Jorge ("MSJ"), complying with the highest standards of environmental protection, control and monitoring prior to, and during the construction and operation of the project. Over the past 3 years, Coro has strictly complied with all laws and regulations, including the 7722 law which required the ratification of the approved EID, and has made every effort to ensure that the legislators were fully informed about the project. In addition, a Mendoza court recently determined that the process which led to the approval of the EID was neither illegitimate nor arbitrary, and therefore fully complied with provincial law.
As recently as August 24th, the head of the Lower House confirmed that the ratification vote would take place after the elections scheduled for October, in order that the decision could be taken based on the merits of the project and not on a calculation of electoral advantage. Unfortunately, the vote took place in any event, without consideration of the conclusions of the legislature's commissions who have spent the last several months evaluating the EID, and more pertinently, the validity of the process which led to its approval. The decision to not ratify the EID was taken against the clearly expressed wishes of the current government, with whom the Company was in advanced discussions aimed at delivering a carried 10% interest in MSJ to the province.
Coro will now consider its alternatives to seek legal redress and compensation through the Argentinean and international courts. In particular, the 7722 law is currently subject to legal challenges of its constitutionality by Coro and several other parties. We anticipate that this lawsuit may be resolved by mid 2012 and in the event that the courts find that the law is indeed unconstitutional, the denial of legislative ratification of the Company's valid and approved EID, may be deemed to be null and void.
Finally, we wish to express our gratitude to the people of Uspallata who had supported the development of San Jorge. We sincerely regret the rejection our project by your elected representatives, especially given the rigorous review and consultation process that has taken place over the past 3 years. Coro had hoped to work with you in raising your living standards and demonstrating the economic and social benefits that San Jorge could have brought to your community; unfortunately, this opportunity has now been denied to us.
CORO MINING CORP.
Alan Stephens, President and CEO

You want an Ottotrans™ on that? Ok, here goes:

"We're screwed"

25 years ago today

June 22nd 1986. First there was this....


...and a few minutes later, this.



Wow, time flies.

Argentina's Presidential Election: The polls

Peru isn't the only South American Presidential race this year, as Argentina also goes to the polls in Presidential, regional and congressional elections in October (and if we add in Central America, there's Nica and Guat, too). But over in the Argentina race it's a different story to the too-close-to-callness in Peru. Here are the latest polling numbers from three Argentina pollsters, CEOP, Ricardo Rouvier and Ibarómetro:

So even though she hasn't even thrown her hat into the ring officially, incumbent President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is a mile ahead in the running and in all probability will win in the first round (as Argentina's rules state that if you get more than 40% in the first round of votes and your nearest opposition is more than 10% behind you, you win). Behind Cristina come Ricardo Alfonsín, son of the ex-Prez Raúl, ex-Pres Eduardo Duhalde, eternal candidate Elisa Carrió and ex-Prez for about a day and a half (remember that back in 2001?) Adolfo Rodríguez Saá.

Date from here

Oxymoron of the day: Argentine political culture

Post written with Mexfiles in mind.

The recent Nobel Literature prizewinner Mario Vargas Llosa is on something akin to a tour of South America right now and has just landed in Argentina. To mark the occasion Argentine politicos have been on full "oh yeah I just love them there book things" toady alert, with the usual hilarious consequences including:

1) José Adrián Pérez, idiot member of Argentina's national congress said that he was "a good author", but when pushed by a reporter said that he'd done "a lot of valuable things, for example 'One Hundred Years of Solitude'."

2) Diana Conti, another idiot member of congress (and ex-Senator to boot), noted Vargas Llosa as "a man true to his principles" but also the dude that wrote 'The Open Veins of Latin America'.

I'm pretty sure Galeano would have a good chuckle about it all, but it'd be fun to know what García Márquez thinks. Thus ends another day in the paradise that is South America, ladies and gentlemen.

News roundup (no silly parentheses today as every time the word Japan floats back into my brain all the jokes disappear)

We're keeping it LatAm-focussed, but remember what's important in life and what's not. I really think you'd be much better off reading other websites today and not this one, as all LatAm has to offer is minutae.

Best political quote of the day is Alejandro Toledo's "Not all Apristas are corrupt." His new tactic is clearly "Remember folks, I'm the one you vote for if you don't like Alan" which is a smart strategic move.

Guatemala's youth killings. Central American Politics has the latest figures and they're not nice at all.

Today's good market link is Cam Hui over at Humble Student of the Markets and his "A test of the Bernanke put" because Cam is being as insightful as always. This is good.

For Spanish speakers looking for more insight on the Argentina political events and guidance to the 2011 Presidentials later this year, today's post by Abel is unmissable.

Argentina 2011 elections: "A crucial triumph" for Cristina

Argentina's daily of record, La Nacion, is calling yesterday's win by Lucía Corpacci as just that and who am I to argue?

Argentina's politics is a veritable quagmire that's difficult to escape once you're sucked into it, but however hard it is to explain to outsiders, it's the most fun possible for South American politikwatchers. So to events and putting yesterday into a nutshell, what happened was that Corpacci won the vote to be the next Governor of the province of Catamarca (up Northwest on your map of Argentina), winning out from the incumbent Governor Eduardo Brizuela del Moral.

So, provincial election in way-out-that-waysville and what's the big deal Otto? The big deal is that Corpacci is a staunch Kirchnerite and this vote was seen by one and all as the first real test of Cristina's candidacy strength in the upcoming October 2011 Presidentials. Catamarca yesterday was a sort of New Hampshire Primary, if you like. Not the same because Cristina wasn't up on the ballot explicitly, but be in no doubt that Catamarca knew exactly who they were really voting for by making Corpacci their new Governor.

As thus, let Cristina's opposition tremble even more. She's already way out ahead in the polls and this weekend is yet another strong sign that re-election is the way of 2011. And she hasn't even officially thrown her hat into the ring yet, either.

Argentina: Widow's Peak

With a doff of the cap to top Argy econblog Los Tres Chiflados, here's how the 2011 Presidential election voter intention is looking in Argentina this weekend, according to local pollster CEOP.

Don't tell me you need a translation on that.

Argentina football news: 36 red cards in one match

The event was the Primera D game between Claypole and Victoriano Arenas in the 'burbs of Buenos Aires. With home team Claypole winning 2-0 and Victoriano Arenas down to just seven players having already had four players sent off, a fight broke out between all members of both teams and the ref had no doubt in showing the red card and sending off all players involved. In total, 36 red cards were shown, which must be some kind of record.

Watch the fun in this 3 minute video, with the main rumble starting just after the 2 minute mark.

News roundup (we poke with pointed sticks those which others fear to poke)

 you're doing it wrong, gringo

'Chelle Bachelet causes shock horror headlines in Spain's El Pais and Argentine media for having dared tell the truth back when she was Chile's Prez. According to the latest round of wikileaks, she said, "Argentina has credibility problems as a country. Its democracy isn't robust and its institutions are not strong. It tends to live from crisis to crisis instead of persuing stable policies." Outside of the huff'n'puff patriotic brigades you won't hear many arguing with that one.

Argentina says today it will pay off its Paris Club debt to the tune of $9Bn. If you think you've heard something like this before, that's because you have, In 2008, in 2009 and in 2010 in fact. See paragraph above concerning 'Chelle for more details.

You know when a State news agency is talking utter utter utter bullshit when it starts an article with something like, "Peru is the number four Latin American country for investment in technology" and then goes through the whole of the report only quoting percentage increases and no hard numbers. Your humble scribe's time spent in the 1980's reading the USSR's Pravda (English version) still comes in handy after all these years.

Prez Rafa Correa sez this about trade agreements between Ecuador and the big boys: "We will never sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTZ) with The USA or with the European Union" and that's NEVER, because there'd be much more cost then benefit in such agreements. Sez Rafa.

Just about the biggest two week party in Peru kicks off this weekend as the Titicaca town of Puno holds its annual Virgen de la Candelaria festival. To make people don't regret the hard partying too much afterwards, Peru health people are distributing 100,000 free condoms to revellers to combat unwanted pregnancies and the spread of HIV/AIDS. Just goes to show that in some things, Peru is far smarter than the its anally retentive Andean neighbours.

Good news and bad news for the Argentine economy

The good news is that Standard & Poor's has raised its ratings on eight large companies in Argentina covering many and varied sectors. The companies are Alto Palermo (shopping malls), IRSA (construction), Loma Negra (cement), Petrobras Energía (O&G), Telecom Personal (telephone), Telefónica de Argentina (telephone), Transportadora de Gas del Sur (gas pipeline) and Clisa (construction/infrastructure), with the reason for the upgrades is that (translated) "Argentine companies face a more favourable operative scenario thanks to our forecast of strong economic growth and a positive external backdrop."

The bad news is that nobody gives a toss about what S&P thinks these days after the pig's ear they made of the last few years.

This, of course, isn't real

From Mercopress news agency today. Here's how the report starts, click through for the rest:

"Pictures from Argentina’s National Park of Glaciers in the southern province of Santa Cruz taken in 1931 and in March this year show how much the mass of ice has retracted.

“What we can see is an extraordinary retraction of almost four kilometres which coincides with the evolution in the last decades of almost all ice masses along the Andes mountain range”, said Juan Carlos Villalonga head CONTINUES HERE

Iceland, Ireland and Argentina

Krugman today looks at the developments of Iceland versus Ireland post-crisis and notes that Iceland, despite its famous financial crash'n'burn moment not that long ago, is doing better than Ireland. 

What’s going on here? In a nutshell, Ireland has been orthodox and responsible — guaranteeing all debts, engaging in savage austerity to try to pay for the cost of those guarantees, and, of course, staying on the euro. Iceland has been heterodox: capital controls, large devaluation, and a lot of debt restructuring — notice that wonderful line from the IMF, above, about how “private sector bankruptcies have led to a marked decline in external debt”. Bankrupting yourself to recovery! Seriously.

And guess what: heterodoxy is working a whole lot better than orthodoxy.

Well yeah, cos as far as we down here are concerned all this is just a repeat performance of Argentina 1999 to 2005. In the first part of that period Argentina did what Ireland is doing, listened attentively to The IMF, did what it was told, rationalized, cut and got all austere. The result of listening to the self-important dumbasses in suits was the financial implosion of late '01 and the wholesale rape of the country's savings by foreign financial institutions. Then 2002 onwards, the country did what Iceland did, gave the IMF the royal bird and did everything it should have done in the first place. The result can be seen in that chart of the day today, a couple of posts down. 

In vino blanco dulce veritas, in aqua sanitas (with apologies to Pliny the Elder)

This afternoon in an official ceremony headed up by President Cristina, Argentina declares wine to be its national drink. There's plenty of Spanish language coverage on this Google roundup link already, including quotes from suitable flunkies on how Argentine wine has developed an international reputation for quality, how exports account for 23% of the ARG$10.5Bn (U$2.64Bn) in sales, how this-grape-that-grape are the new stars etc etc.

Me? I agree fully that Argentina's national drink is wine and should be celebrated, but the real headline wine should be Termidor Blanco Dulce 1 litre Tetrapak. Anyone who's spent time in non-Barrio-Norte Buenos Aires should know why.

Chart of the day is....

...car sales (as measured by change in registered ownership) 2006 to September 2010 by month, data from the Camara del Comercio Automotor Argentina (the official place to go for the numbers, basically).

Using this traditionally reliable benchmark for economic activity in Argentina there's little doubt that things are picking up nicely there. Just in time for the 2011 Presidentials, too....now ain't that a coincidence?

Understanding Argentina (Spanish language)

This is a little unfair to post on an English language blog about LatAm, it's also impossible to translate correctly (the words do translate, the meaning doesn't). But I cannot resist. Thank you JS.

I adore Argentina.

Argentina is not a serious country, episode 12,849

So today Argentina's FinMin Amado Boudou comes out and admits inflationary price rises in "some products" but tries to lay the blame on local businessmen for inflation, saying that

"There are some increments (due to) the push that an expanding economy gives, that has an enormous demand, the result of having incorporated millions of Argentines into the jobs market and millions of Argentines into the pensions system.


"However there is an attitude, and I want to say it with much respect, on the part of businesspeople who quickly move to increase prices instead of expanding supply and services."

Well, let's see now. I'm ok about normal rank and file people not getting the fact that inflation is caused by expansion of money supply, but the FREAKIN' MINISTER OF THE ECONOMY OF A NATION OF 40 MILLION PEOPLE? Gimme a break here, fercryinoutloud. Bizpeeps to blame for Argentina's inflation? As Dr. Johnson would say, I refute it thus:

Economics 101 lesson over. Data source: BCRA. DYODD, dude.

UPDATE: At the behest of ace Argy econ dude and site friend Miguel Olivera, here's the chart that shows YoY percentage change in that above M2 figure. Note how the recent 20%-or-so average increase YoY closely correlates with the unofficial inflation figures out of the country (as opposed to the official INDEC numbers which are the biggest statistical crock in South America right now).

Who leads the polls in Argentina?

On the death of Nestor Kirchner there were some weird reactions, with the one that really stands out in the memory being the way Argentine bonds rallied because the market was calling for the end of the "K" era. There was also a lot of speculation about power vacuums and how Klishtina couldn't/wouldn't/shouldn't be able to do the job going forward without Nestor by her side.

I found it all very confusing, frankly. As soon as he died, my reaction to the Argentine politics scene was nailed to this blog for all to see:

"To add my own little dos centavitos, right now I'd make Cristina a red hot favourite for re-election next year..."

Then in other posts recently, the same story. So while watching the (probably Clarín-led) gossip swirl and seeing the EngLang media swallow it whole, I just kept thinking to myself, "Just you wait til you see the next set of opinion polls". And they're now with us, courtesy of Los3Chiflados:

Any questions about the Spanish vocab being used there, dudes? The thing about Argentina is that you can't just watch it to be able to begin to understand it; You need to have lived it.

Argentina versus Peru

Conventional wisdom on Peru: New miracle economy.....stable.....top performing....great growth......new best friend......can't be bettered......expanding local market

Peru's benchmark IGBVL index is up 215% from the Financial Crisis lows.

Conventional wisdom on Argentina: Risky.....volatile.....default at any moment....don't wanna invest there....never make any money there....avoid the local market

Argentina's benchmark Merval index is up over 240% from the Financial Crisis lows.

Never forget that most advice you receive on LatAm finances is laden out by complete dumbasses.

Approval ratings of four local Presidents (for the attention of Foreign Perfidy)

This chart as a complement to Greg Weeks' post this morning, as he decided to debunk some of the guff and nonsense written by Foreign Policy on Ecuador.