This, of course, isn't real

From Mercopress news agency today. Here's how the report starts, click through for the rest:

"Pictures from Argentina’s National Park of Glaciers in the southern province of Santa Cruz taken in 1931 and in March this year show how much the mass of ice has retracted.

“What we can see is an extraordinary retraction of almost four kilometres which coincides with the evolution in the last decades of almost all ice masses along the Andes mountain range”, said Juan Carlos Villalonga head CONTINUES HERE

Thoughts on Argentina's "Glacier Law" (from IKN74)

This was one small section of yesterday's IKN Weekly issue 74 and considered the passing of the so-called "Glacier Law" by Argentina's Senate last week. As usual in the 'Regional Politics' section of the weekly we try to cut through the debate and handwringing and get to the practical points that concern mining sector investors

Argentina’s ‘Glacier Law’ passes the Senate

On Thursday Argentina’s upper house, the Senate, finally voted through the so-called “Glacier Law” that’s designed to protect glaciers in the upper reaches of the Andean Cordillera and stop mining companies from disrupting them, thus guaranteeing them as a source of water supply etc. There were two law projects on the table for the Senate to vote on and the tougher-worded one of the two was passed by a vote of 35 to 33 (one abstention). Below in the appendix find a Reuters report (18) that neatly sums things up.

The practical results of the law passage (assuming President Cristina Fernandez signs it into law as she said she would) are currently under debate, with some saying the feature ‘Pascua Lama’ project of Barrick is under threat, while others saying no. So let’s make this as simple as possible: If this law threatens ABX at Pascua Lama in any way, be sure that Cristina will veto it. It’s really as simple as that. Fernandez is very pro-Pascua Lama, Barrick has already made provisions to its mining plan that mean Pascua Lama mineral directly under the nearby glacier will not be mined or even put in the mining plan and the talk from the environmental groups of this law being a triumph that will stop Pascua Lama in its tracks will be short-lived. The mine will happen, period.

However, the new law is likely to add an extra layer of bureaucracy (as if there weren’t enough already in Argentina) to other projects in the upper reaches of the Cordillera. One of the key points of the law is that Argentine Institute of Snow Research, Glaciology and Environmental Science (translated) is now in charge of making a nationwide inventory of glaciers and afterwards it will also be in charge of making the glacial studies needed for environmental permitting for any new mining project. In other words a new department is now involved in the permitting process, over and above all the current processes.

The bottom line is that 1) ABX will get its mine at Pascua Lama but 2) there may be a temporary delay or two due to it. Meanwhile 3) Argentina, already a pain in the butt when it comes to red tape, just saw another layer added to any company that wants to develop a high mountain project.

Pascua Lama: Merry Christmas Señor Che Politico

The planned mine at Pascua Lama

Let's catch up on the recent story about Barrick's (ABX) Pascua Lama gold project high high up in the mountains and lying, quite literally, on the border of Chile and Argentina:

• Argentina's parliament passed a law to protect all glaciers on national territory.

• The Pascua Lama project involves the removal, or repositioning (or whatever word Barrick uses) of a glacier way up there to get at the gold mineral body.

• Therefore, the law as passed would have scuppered the planned mine once and for all (I think...most of the site is on the Chilean side of the border. I honestly don't know if it could go ahead in a reduced form only on the Chilean side, but I highly doubt it).

• So Klishtina decided to veto the law and did so on October 22nd. This means Barrick can still build its mine.

Which brings us to the present day and the next bit gets interesting. This is because Argentina's lower house is re-introducing the law to parliament. It needs to get through the lower (Deputies) and upper (Senate) houses to make it into law now. And as it is a second passage it needs a two-thirds majority from both chambers. But the rub here is that if it does pass, the President of the Republic is legally obliged to sign it into law. No more vetoes allowed.

I can hear those Argentine politicos rubbing their hands right now! That's because they have the fate of a multimillion, nay billion, dollar project at their mercy, the stuff dreams are made of in their circles, quite frankly. Also, worth adding into the mix that ABX is a worldly-wise company and understands....hmmmm, how shall we say this?......understands the power of effective lobbying.

Therefore Otto makes the following prediction: The vote to reinstall the glacier protection law will get through the lower house. It will then get a majority in the Senate but will fall short of the 2/3rds needed. This proposed law will get nowhere and Barrick successfully negotiates another hurdle in its "build a mine at Pascua Lama" marathon



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Barrick, Pascua Lama, Argentina, Chile