Showing posts with label O Estado De S. Paulo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label O Estado De S. Paulo. Show all posts

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Mosiac (MOS), as seen on IKN

We wrote on Thursday:
The news out of Brazil caught the headlines of all newswires, with Bloomie's 'Mosiac Climbs After Report Vale May Bid $25Bn' and Reuters with 'Vale mulls bid for Cargill's Mosiac' pretty typical of the bunch. But when your humble correspondent clicked open the stories it turns out that the source for the story is the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, a medium second to none for its unfounded bullshit and made up stories about takeovers, movers and shakers.

So if you want to get out of MOS, do it today.

We read on Bloomberg Friday afternoon:
Vale Denies Fertilizers Acquisition; Mosaic Falls (Update2)

By Carlos Caminada

July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Vale SA, the world’s biggest iron- ore miner, said it hasn’t made any offers to acquire fertilizer assets. Shares of fertilizer producer Mosaic Co. fell CONTINUES HERE

We see the reaction in share price:

Toldya.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Memo to shareholders of Mosiac (MOS)

Woof Woof

Get on your knees and thank the market gods for the chance to sell out today.

The news out of Brazil caught the headlines of all newswires, with Bloomie's 'Mosiac Climbs After Report Vale May Bid $25Bn' and Reuters with 'Vale mulls bid for Cargill's Mosiac' pretty typical of the bunch. But when your humble correspondent clicked open the stories it turns out that the source for the story is the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, a medium second to none for its unfounded bullshit and made up stories about takeovers, movers and shakers.

So if you want to get out of MOS, do it today. Any other source and I'd be expecting the deal to happen, but as it's O Estado the chances drop to 25% maximum. I mean, why should Vale buy a fertilizer play right now when anybody with a brain sees the potash cartel prices cracking and a big drop in revenues in the very near future?

UPDATE: Right on cue, Forbes published this report this afternoon on the soft earnings outlook for the major fertilizer players, including MOS of course.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Lime Slime's Brazil: Corruption and slush money in the Lula government? Surely not!

I've actually had a couple of mails since the weekend saying "Hey dude, where's Lime Slime got to?" or words to that effect. Never fear, dudettes and dudes! Here we have a new dispatch from the whacked out world of the Caipirinha. All yours, Lime Slime:

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Robert Mangabeira Unger (for it is he)

Serious journalism is alive and well in Brazil, especially at O Estado De S. Paulo, known as Estadao by its fans. I've long thought of it is the best paper in Latin America. Excellent writing, rigorous and independent. It's editorial page is too far right for me on social issues, with a conservative Catholic slant that sounds outdated in contemporary Brazil, but the rest of the paper is top notch. And today, they have one of those great articles explaining more or less how political parties finance themselves here.

Lula's party, the PT, controls 6 of the biggest 10 pension funds of the so-called estatais, the state-run companies. These are BIG, and historically have been one of the few sources of long-term financing in a country that, before the latest commodities boom, had a very low domestic savings rate. The funds include Previ, the fund of Banco do Brasil, Petros of Petrobras, you get the picture.

The execs at the funds are named by political parties, and most of them were put in place by Lula's former right-hand man, Jose Dirceu, who quit the cabinet during Lula's first term during a corruption scandal that almost cost Lula re-election. In that scandal, the PT was buying votes in Congress to get bills approved. The other guy who appointed PT allies to the funds was Luis Gushiken, an old union hack who formerly had a job as chief propagandist and whose office had an obscenely large budget, before the corruption scandal got him.

Why do they want to control the funds? Moolah. Parties have two basic ways of raising cash. They can either take kickbacks on concessions for things like bus routes, or they can dip their hands into the pension funds. Accounting at the funds has historically been opaque, even though some of them make smart investments and build important stuff. But it's time for Brazil to clean up these conflicts of interest.

Many of Lula's buddies from the union movement are now managing billions of dollars in cash. Why? What do they know about investments? One of the opposition parties is pushing for a Congressional investigation of the funds, which would damage Lula. Robert Mangabeira Unger, the Brazilian dude on leave from Harvard Law school who speaks Portuguese with a gringo accent, once called the pension funds the most sordid, nefarious area of Brazilian politics. But that was before Lula hired him as his "Secretary of Long-Term Planning", a ministerial level post where he runs his own one-man think tank. Why don't you tell us what your plans are, Mangabeira?


Read all five Lime Slime guestblogs right here