Brazil's Real

This morning the Brazilian Real dipped under 1.60 to the US dollar for the first time since the 08 crisis (right now 1.595) and looks like making all-time highs against the greenback in short order. It also cocked a snook at Brazil's FinMin Guido Mantega, who just yesterday rolled out the latest set of controls on foreign capitals flowing in to Brazil that was supposed to stem the tide. Here's Merco Press News with a straightforward and decent report on the whole issue and here's an excerpt of the top paragraphs designed to get you to click through and read more:

Underscoring the urgency in senior levels in the Brazilian government to tackle the rising Real, during a prime time televised news conference Mr. Mantega announced the new measure: an extension of a 6% tax on short term foreign-currency loans to longer dated paper, from 360 to 720 days.

It was at least the fourth capital control introduced by Mantega since October.

CONTINUES HERE.

These days,  Brazil's currency muscle is measured not only in dollar terms down this way. You only need to look at the number of deals Brazilian companies are looking to make in other LatAm countries (and really, there are too many to note here but all sectors, from minerals to manufacturing, are seeing companies in Spanish speaking South America snapped up by Brazilian companies) to get a better feel. Another way is to visit Brazil's metropoles, such as Rio or SP, and note the cost of living is on a par with any "first world" country for foreign visitors.

UPDATE: Reader, site friend, Brazil expert and all-round good egg Drunkeynsian leaves this in the comments section and fwiw it sounds spot on to me:

Brazilian government doesn't want to mess with the level of the currency. Since Central Bank decided not to raise rates aggressively to contain inflation, any help from import prices is welcome. Exporters complain and get some fireworks, but it seems clear to me Brazil is choosing a quite radical Ricardian approach to its future: sell commodities, forget about the rest, and pray for a very long cycle. The other side of that is a net foreign liability of US$ 700 billion, but nobody seems to care about it now.

Rio mudslide: A compelling report from Gabriel Elizondo

The Rio mudslide is a natural disaster of great moment and of all the reports I've read so far, none come close to the magnificent piece filed today by Gabriel Elizondo of Al Jazeera. An absolute must-read and a wake-up call to anyone stuck in their own petty problems and complaints. This is the best report out of any reporter from any news agency I've seen for a long time. Go read.

Welcome to the new Brazil! (just the same as the old Brazil)

At least, that's what Brazilians are expecting.

While the world gasped in shock'n'awe over the 87% approval rating garnered by President Lula in Brazil in his last month of office (e.g. Reuters EngLang report here), your author's eye was caught a little more by another survey response in the very same CNI/Ibope poll. This charts shows....

...what Brazilians expect from the new Dilma Rousseff government that takes over January 1st, with most expecting a pretty smooth continuation of things. And that's probably true about most domestic political affairs, but your humble scribe has the feeling that Dilma is looking to run the macro-economy at a different tack...starting with an attempt to depreciate the Real. We shall see, but we do wish Dilma the best of fortune.

Brazil showing signs of (its traditional) inflation

Brazil's Consumber Price Inflation (CPI) number came out the end of last week and for November 2010 the reading was +0.83%, which added to the annual figure now standing at 5.63%. MercoPress (a news agency that's getting bigger and better these days...watch out Reuters) has the English language rundown on the issue, noting that November's monthly number was the "highest monthly level in five years".

So, is this a problem brewing for Brazil? Well, let's start with some context and a monthly CPI chart that goes back to January 2007, courtesy of the official Brazil beancounters IBGE:

So the 0.83% number is the "highest in five years", but it's also one of seven months since 2007 that has seen a spike. Those spikes tend to come in pairs, too. Next up, 5.63% may sound a lot (or it may not if you live in Caracas) but in Brazilian terms it's pretty low. what's more important is that Brazilians, the population at large, know how to handle price inflation as it's an issue they've lived with for a long time. For example, 5.63% annual fades into nothingness compared to the average of 30% inflation a month that Brazil suffered in 1993 (to pick just one hyperinflation year out the bag).

So inflation in Brazil isn't an issue...yet. When Dilma Rousseff kicks off her Presidency on Jan 1st 2011 it may become a worry or it may not, but your author would want to see three or four consecutive months over 0.8% before changing his mind.

Deep disturbance

When it comes to narcotrafficking and the way drug kingpins spend their cash there has always been some eclectic tastes on display. Take the Mexican narco-fashion of 18k gold machine guns or diamond-encrusted bling dripping from each arm, neck and cellphone. Take Colombia's Pablo Escobar and his private zoo, complete with hippos and tigers and all sorts.

But this one posted up by The Mex Files this morning is really, deeply scary: Brazilian narcobosses and their shrine in honour of Justin Bieber. I can't bring myself to paste the photo here, so click thru and look over at RG's site and get the cold shivers down your spine, too.

Brazil: The biggest hint yet that Dilma will weaken the Real

The Brazilian Real has lost over 0.5% against the US dollar today, because of this, reported by Mercopress

Brazilian central bank chief steps down from president-elect Rousseff’s team

Brazilian central bank president Henrique Meirelles will not accept any invitation to remain as head of the bank unless president-elect Dilma Rousseff gives him full guarantees of “absolute autonomy” in running the institution. He also rejects the idea of holding on the job during the first quarter of 2011 until a definitive successor is named.

...................

Apparently Meirelles seems uncomfortable with these reports and much less having his name linked to a possible “tampon” action while a successor to his post is nominated. The central bank president said that working with President Lula da Silva he was “never exposed to any sort of pressure or influence”.

CONTINUES HERE

Brazil's new President

The polls have closed in Brazil and no surprises today. Check the latest on this Google News Brazil thread as the evening wears on, but right now it's 58% of valid votes for Brazil's President Elect, Dilma Vana Rousseff, via an exit poll with a 2% margin of error. Jose Serra is pegged back at 41% of valid votes. Congratulations to you, Dilma.



PS: What, me? Did I say this back on March 27th 2010 when José Serra had just extended his lead  in the polls over Dilma from four points to nine points?

"Put me on record today: I say Rousseff wins this election."

Just sayin'

Brazil's second round Presidential vote

Tomorrow, October 31st, Brazil votes in the run-off for the its new President. Here's how South America's biggest circulation newspaper, Folha de S. Paulo, has tracked the voter intention polls this month.

In other words, Dilma Rousseff is as close to a lock as you get possibly get in this crazy game. Her 49% of voter intention translates to 56% of valid votes for tomorrow (once spoiled ballots etc are subtracted), while José Serra is at 44% of valid votes.

Joyous News! Brazil fixes its illegal logging problem once and for all!

Good news for the price of timber, good news for those fighting illegal logging, good news for everyone except for those human beings who prefer to breath oxygen in their air, in fact. Brazil's brilliant plan to stop the wholesale rape of its rainforest is.....to allow it to continue, just make it legal! Here's Mongabay with the story.

Brazil will auction large blocks of the Amazon rainforest to private timber companies as part of an effort to reduce demand for illegal logging, reports Reuters.

The government will grant 1 million hectares (2.5 million acres) of logging concessions by the end of the year, according to Antonio Carlos Hummel, head of Brazil's National Forestry Service. Within four to five years, 11 million hectares will be auctioned.

Existing concessions cover only 150,000 hectares, yet Brazil is the world's largest producer of tropical timber, mostly due to illegal logging on the poorly governed forest frontier.

Continues here.

Brazil: New poll for the second round Presidential election run-off

Hot off the presses, here are the numbers from Datafolha for the second round run-off between Dilma Rousseff and José Serra.

The vote happens October 31st. Meanwhile, if only valid votes are taken into consideration Datafolha says that Dilma wins it 54% to 46%.

Brazil's Presidential election: An enormous result for Marina Silva of the Green Party

Holy wowsers! Check out the numbers with 82.29% of the votes counted already:

Marina Silva of the Green Party, who was polling around 10% all through the election season (give or take), has taken chunks out of Dilma Rousseff's vote and stopped her from becoming President  of Brazil until October 11th. Dilma will still win then (she runs off against Serra) but this result goes down as a minor shock if confirmed by the total count. Data from here.

Brazil goes green. Can't say it's a bad thing, either.

Tomorrow's Brazilian Presidential Election Big Vote Major LatAm Happening Explained In Two Words

a

a 

Dilma Wins

a

a 

a

s

a

Brazil: New poll for the Presidential race

Dilma is trouncing Serra and looks like winning straight on round one (that happens October 3rd, less than a month away now). Good.

The data for the poll was collected by Datafolha between September 2nd and 3rd. It was a big sample, with 4,314 people surveyed in 203 different municipalities up and down Brazil with a margin of error of +/- 2%. Data from here.

Go Dilma!

News roundup (we offer a trim, shave and something for the weekend, sir)

chop chop!

The Economist is often mediocrity defined when it comes to its LatAm coverage, but it does offer up some decent perspectives on occasion (which keeps me from scrubbing its LatAm desk from my RSS). A good example today as TE offers up Ethanol's mid-life crisis on Brazil's sugar/ethanol sector. Interesting reading material and food for thought.

In our Presidential libido gossip column section, Paraguay's Lugo, currently under treatment for cancer, is not the father of one of the football team he's supposed to have procreated, according to DNA testing announced this week. Two positives and a negative so far.

We like that Brazil's Lula and Colombia's Santos have signed an eight point bilateral trade agreement this week. Lula then presented Santos with a pretty gong to hang round his neck and Santos said warm and fuzzy things about how wonderful Brazil is. Ahhh, ain't diplomacy cute sometimes?

Oh noes! Argentina is Communist too! The turncoats have only gone and bought a truckload of Russian military hardware, for the first time ever, too. Whatever happened to those carnal relations of the 90's eh? (update: link now works)

A taxi driver accused of sexual abuse his female passengers in Lima denies the charges, as (in his words) he only forced them to perform oral sex while threatening them with a screwdriver. Oh well, that's alright then, isn't it?

Brazil's next President will be a woman

Which is good news as far as I'm concerned (and my call all year, even when she was supposedly lagging behind Serra). Al Jazz has got the extended story and analysis and it's well worth clicking through for more but here's the chart that AJ is running with its story, one of those pictures that paints a thousand words.

Go Dilma! Click here for the whole thing.

Politics in Brazil isn't a joke anymore

Yesterday saw a march and protest along Rio's Copacabana beach. About 50 comedians, some of them famous in Brazil, wore specially made T-shirts and red noses to parade up and down Brazil's most famous beach and were joined by a big crowd of people that either agreed with them, or wanted a stroll, or were looking for an autograph. And the protest? It's against a recent ruling from the "Superior Electoral Tribunal" (the election judges) that prohibited radio, TV and internet programmes and shows from (and we quote) "using tricks, montages or audio or video effect that leave candidates parties or electoral alliances ridiculized". The court ruling also said that future production of such programs would be suspended.

After all, just the subject of Brazilian politics is set up for satire. The politicos there have long been the butt of jokes and quite right too as the vast majority need bringing down a peg or two hundred. But in its push to be seen as a serious country these days Brazil is achieving just the opposite; this kind of pettyfogging just makes the country look more stupid than before.

Brazil: Latest Polling for the Presidential Elections

October 3rd is creeping ever closer and Dilma Rousseff is moving further away from main rival José Serra.

The same IBOPE/O Globo pollsters on July 3rd called the two frontrunners at a 34%/34% dead heat, so not much doubt who has the momentum here. Lula's girl looks a red-hot favourite now. Data from this report.

Brazil's Presidential Election: Latest Poll

Out today is the latest polling for the big regional election at the end of this year and Dilma is apparently kicking José's butt. Here's the chart:

Here's the source if you want more info (like for example how Dilma beats José 49% to 37% in a 2nd round runoff). But the main takeaway is that Lula's dauphine is making this job her own right now.

UPDATE: Wise words from our Brazilian pal drunkeynsian left in the comments section:

Otto, the poll you mentioned was conducted only in the Ceará state, which has a little more than 4% of Brazilian voters. As you probably know, Ceará is in the Northeast, where Lula's candidate is expected to win by a large margin. Nationwide the race is tighter.

True, but* it's still a significant poll that affirms Dilma's momentum. She's still kickin' his butt.

*dontcha hate it when you see those two words together on a blerg?

Brazil and the price of overconfidence

Mister Plá (for it is he)

Brazil's loss against Holland (or 'The Netherlands' if you like...you know which country I'm talking about anyway) has left a big dent in the country's footballing pride. It's also left a big dent in the pockets of its retail sector who, utterly confident of progressing to the final and winning the thing (again), have now been left rather overstocked with paraphernalia related to all things footy.

According to this report in O Globo today, Daniel Plá of Brazilian Getulio Vargas Foundation economics bureau says that unsold merchandise including team shirts, flags and those now infamous vuvuzelas amongst other items add up to a total of U$48m around the country. In Rio de Janeiro alone, unsold goods are worth U$4.8m.

Says Plá, "Retail outlets were expecting to sell a lot more green-and-yellow products in the two weeks that were left. Now it's very difficult to sell them, even with generalized 50% discounts on offer......Everybody expect Brazil to reach the final". He also noted that TV sales would suffer.

IKN sez: Y'see, I told you there's always a bright side :-)

futbol