Wistar Holt writes in to IKN

His message?

"Please...

..put your money where your mouth is you motherfucken coward!
 
The number is ninety. So what's special about 90c and ECU.to? Well, start by considering the 50.9m warrants outstanding at ECU with an average weighting of 92c.
To be frank I didn't think it would even get close, but $26/oz silver helps even the worst of the pack and so here we are at 87c today. If it hits 90c, your humble scribe will re-open his short position (a previous winner and still waiting in the wings). What with GataBill planning to sell a whole heap of his position, odds are in favour here. DYODD

Nice man, isn't he? Mind you, he does have a history of pathological behaviour and so after seeing all silver stocks around his biggest holding triple and quadruple and finally getting a move from his biggest holding (he was buying at $3.50, remember) it's only to be expected that he's letting off some steam. Jeez, it's been burning you this long, has it Wisty? Glad to know you're a regular visitor round here, anyway :-)

As subscribers know, your author was away from the office today. But fear ye not, Wistar, I'll be taking the lid off the short first thing tomorrow morning. Oh, by the way Wisty, a coward is someone who can't ever admit they're wrong, not someone who's holding the gains this humble scribe is holding so far this year, so check the mirror for a good example of a coward.

UPDATE: Another mail from Holt which includes this line:

"I swear to God that if I ever come across you in person, I will rip you apart."

You know, I think even writing things like that is illegal, Wistar.

Ok, scrub half that last post; this is an attempted coup

And it's being orchestrated by Lucio Guitierrez, the President of Ecuador betwen 2003 and 2005 who was ousted due to a popular uprising. Not only is Lucio Guitierrez an ex-Prez, he's a retired army colonel and the head of the opposition Sociedad Patriotica party. He's also been vociferous in his opposition in the last few days, having blasted him from the cozy surrounding of Miami (where else?) last week.

Today, speaking from Brasilia, Guitierrez called for the dissolution of parliament and a new election "to avoid bloodshed". And thus his tips his hand. Also, his lawyer was spotted as one of the crowd of officers that stormed and cut off the transmission of Ecuador's State TV channel tonight., which is what you call a  dead giveaway in this game. Here below is the translated money quote from Guitierrez, meanwhile Correa has just said he'll either leave the hospital where's he's holed up "as President or as a cadaver". He has a good turn of phrase, gotta be said.

"(New elections) could be the constitutional solution to avoid the possibility of bloodshed in the country", said Guitierrez.

Ecuador debt: "honestly...we're not kidding you know..."

Now is it just me.............?

Today Ecuador's FinMin Viteri held a presser to tell the world (translation Otto):

"If we have to reach default, we will do it responsibly. The national government does not recognize the illegal and illegitimate debt at all. Ladies and gentlemen, we are not playing; we are very serious and conclusive when saying "The national government rejects the illegal and therefore illegitimate debt."

Spooky huh? WHoooooOOOOoooooOOOOOoooooOOOOOO. Just the kind of thing Andres Oppenheimer can report on tomorrow while trying to forget what an idiot he's made of himself recently. Here's the Reuters version in English too...spookier and spookier... whooOOOoooOOOooo

So interesting that Brazil's main international advisor to President Lula, Marco Aurelio Garcia also said today, "Ecuador is going to pay its bill...we (Brazil) have the means with which to convince (them)."

Also interesting the way the Veep of the debt commission last week admitted that Ecuador will have to pay for the time being. There's no other way to take the complaint forward and maintain the "responsible" position. Right now Ecuador has two firms of US lawyers working on the same thing...betcha a dollar they advise Studmuffin&Co to keep paying the coupons while making an international case of it all. Nah...betcha ten dollars, in fact. Any takers?

Also interesting is the little snippet that Stephan Kueffner of bloomie picked up on. It's buried under the dramatic headline, but Bloomie does manage to mention that Ecuador quietly and without much fuss paid a U$1.2m coupon on one of its Brady bonds this week. The reason why it paid? To stay legal and responsible.

But most interesting is the action where it really counts, namely the bonds market. The key 2012 Globals sank to 21c on the dollar when the whole shebang first started. This time last week they were trading at 25.5c and 26c on the dollar. Today the same bonds closed the day at 31.5c on the dollar having touched 32c after (not before) Viteri spoke. That's a 50% climb since the drama began, and 20+% in the last couple of days. Money talks and BS walks, dudes and dudettes.

Speaking of BS, the whole thing comes to its inevitable climax on Saturday December 13th. That's the day Studmuffin has chosen to reveal to the world whether Ecuador is going to pay the delayed coupon, the announcement coming as part of the Studtastic* Roadshow to be transmitted on Radio MUFN. The guy must be after the ratings...hey, I wonder how much a 10 second slot to advertise this blog would set me back?
Finally, a word for those of you who've taken this blog's advice on Ecuador debt throughout this soap opera: So far you're making good coin but think about the retreat position that the idiots who called end-of-the-world over Ecuador's bonds will take. When Ecuador pays the coupon on Monday 15th, you can bet your sweet bippy you'll hear resounding cries of, "Well, they paid this time, but the issue isn't going away and the next round of coupons is steeper and you'll see you'll see I'm right y'know even though i'm wrong...." blah blah yada yadaaaaa ad infinitum.

The point here is that selling the news is a likely scenario as the pea-brained shills will still be preaching a sermon to people who want them to be right, thus maybe profit-taking on half your position on Friday 12th December is the prudent course. Biz iz biz.

*copyright DJ, used with kind permission

News roundup

Hearts'n'minds, Chinese style. Peru state radio reports that Chinalco has begun an information campaign in the town of Morococha about its enormoous copper project to be built next door as of next year. Otto prefers this to the normal mushroom politics method of so many world miners.

Disappointingly for some, Ecuador and Brazil are not about to stop doing deals with each other. Otto is totally unsurprised and laughs in the face of the ignorant (e.g. Walter Molano).

Caracas falls to the Chávez opposition, and immediately 30% of the city is without water supply. Huh...those capitalists, eh?

Evo says relations with the USA will be better when The Hawaiian takes charge. Evo therefore wins this week's "No Shit Sherlock" award, as bar direct napalm attacks from B-52s it's tough to imagine how they could be any worse.

Otto receives precisely six hatemails and board comments from guys called 'anonymous' concerning yesterday' post about silver. Read here and find out why the comments didn't get through, dumbasses. Freakin' silverbugs can't face reality.........