Got something to hide, Marin?

Looks like Casey Research is into cyberburial of criticisms. Your list of instructions:

1. Check out the December 2010 IKN post "Marin Katusa's Modus Operandi and East West Petroleum (EW.v)" on the link.
2. Go to the photoshow at the bottom of the page.
3. Mouse over the links provided to the biographies of the scummy, self-serving threesome that make up KBH Capital, namely Marin Katusa, Marc Bustin and Joe Hung. You'll note as you mouse over (without clicking) if you look in the bottom left of your screen that the url's originally provided did indeed go to the correct places.
4. Now click through the three biog links provided. The links now go to completely separate places in the Casey Research website and feature people that don't even work for the shop any more. The internal links have clearly been swapped by Casey people to send people to the wrong places.

Isn't this fun? It's almost as if Marin and his pally pals have something to hide, isn't it?

The other way the Casey frontrunning scam works

And so begins another tale of Casey Research frontrunning and general ripping off of its plebeian subscribers for your education and edification.

Yeah owly, really. On February 25th Louis Lobito James, the senior metals analyst at Casey Research with no formal degree in geology or metallurgy to his name, decided to call buy on Gold Bullion Development Corp (GBB.v), a small Quebec junior gold explorer. That's fair enough, but the problem is that he only told a fraction of the people who subscribe to Casey Research that it was a buy. Here's the start of what he wote at the time:

Gold Bullion Development Corp. (V.GBB, C$0.52, 158.5M SO, 188.1M FD, C$82.4M MCap, C$6M Cash)
BUY (First Tranche, on Spec)—The CEO here is Frank Basa, whom I was (continues)

At the time, the stock was 52c, but Lobito didn't pronounce his positive conclusions on GBB.v far and wide, because this information only went to the privileged few that pay extra money for the A-list "alert" Casey Research 'Alert' service (they call it something else I think, but what it boils down to is "pay more and frontrun the cheap seats"). GBB.v then made a small upmove on improved volume due to buying from his privileged A list before....well, it dumped hard straight afterwards, in fact and bottomed out a full 26.9% lower than his buy reco price at 38c before floating on for a month or so in the low 40s.

But there's always good news when it comes to being a Casey A-lister, because if you manage to find yourself in a dog stock you can rely on Lobito and his gormless B-listers to bail you out. How so? Simply, if the reco doesn't work out he'll then reco the same stock to the B-list that gets the monthly International Speculator publication at a later date, they'll wade in like the sheep they are and those who bought in badly earlier have a neat and voluminous exit point...no harm done, on the to next

And sure enough, in this month's Intl Spec GBB.v was featured as a new buy and...

...sure enough, the volume surge saw it bought up to 51c (see the above chart)...all the out you could have wanted from this stale pick. Ain't that lucky?

One of the things I like most (well, 'like' in a rather perverse way) is the sheer barefacedness of the way these serial price manipulators go about their dirty work and to that end I've made sure that clipping from the Casey rag includes their "disclosure". In essence what they're saying iwith that disclosure you see there is "We're frontrunning you AGAIN and now that you know you're getting front-ran it's perfectly alright and we can carry on ripping you off...thank you for not noticing our little scam". For sure it's probably not illegal (note the word 'probably' there, because one of these fine days, if there's enough moolah involved I reckon there's plenty of room for an ambitious lawyer to have fun with these guys) but what this crowd of crudballs do on a regular basis sure is morally despicable. Under normal circumstances the three-card trick they play will prime a stock for an A-lister easy win, with the later Intl Speculator reco giving the tipped-off buyers a volume-laden exit point and easy percentage gains, but even if the whole thing goes wrong on Lobito and his pick turns out to be a dud, there's always the "palm it off on the sheep" exit for the A-listers....and the poor saps on the B-List who bought today will just have to learn the hard way (or not at all)

To round off, IKN would like once again to make the case for the Casey Research 'A List' expensive "hear it first" service and we're doing Casey Research a favour by marketing its expensive subscription for them all. Really, if you get the Intl Speculator but not the A-listers service, you're not doing yourself any favours whatsoever and you're also THAT clsoe to finding a real way to beat the market and rig the whole game in your favour. Why are you still on the cheapseat B List when 1) you're getting reamed by the A-listers every single month and 2) you too can sign up for the expensive Casey service and frontrun the poor saps that only get the Intl Speculator, too? So if you're a morally bankrupt piece of shit with zero scruples who enjoys making money at whatever cost, the boys at Casey will suit you down to the ground. Give them a bell today...and ask for that A-listers' thing, yeah?

Bayfield Ventures (BYV.v) is IKN's twittery friend

Is 'friend' what you say when somebody follows you on twitter, or is that just Feibu*? I forget the protocols and etiquettes of Webz2.0. Anyway, when your humble scribe finished up and sent his weekly missive last night he then trundled over to the IKN Twitter account to see what was going twit and a joyous little piece of news awaited him. The guys over at Bayfield Ventures (BYV.v) have decided to be special followers of IKN as you can see here. 

This, thought your humble scribe, was wondrous news as I wrote at the time.....

"Great News! Bayfield Resources Ventures (BYV.v) has decided to follow IKN's tweet a/c! @Bayfield_BYV Do they follow Marin Katusa too?"

 ......and a great chance to pose a couple of questions to the team at BYV.v about how things are developing. So far I've sent them this question....

"A great chance to ask some Qs, no? Hey @Bayfield_BYV why all that luckily timed inside selling while running financing over $1?"

...and also this question. 

"Hey @Bayfield_BYV why so slow with ALL the drilling results? What's wrong, don't you want everyone to see all the info?"

 Sadly, they haven't replied as yet, but I'm sure they'll get round to it. Meanwhile, how's that stock doing, Lobito?

Hey...moving down towards 65c, Lobito! You're right again, Lobito! (gotta love lobito)



*Facebook in Spanish...seriously

I am once again reminded.....

A proven liar advises you on gold

photo by popular demand

Here's the proven liar.

Here's the advice.

And as both IKN's author and the featured interviewee at the above link both amply prove, you don't need to be smart to make money in the junior miner sector. All you need to do is say "buy FVI".

When you have an overriding sense of entitlement....

...things like correctly filing your trades do not apply to you. As an example, here's the Casey bullshitter Marin Katusa deciding that the 10 day rule for filing insider sales of Copper Mountain (CUM.to) is only for the little people and he can do what the hell he wants.

Hey, thanks for telling us about those March sales, Marin. In August.

Copper Mountain Mining Corporation (CUM)						As of August 5th, 2010
Filing Date	Transaction Date	Insider Name	Ownership Type	Securities	Nature of transaction	# or value acquired or disposed of	Unit Price
Aug 05/10	Mar 16/10	Katusa, Marin	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-41,600	$2.890
Aug 05/10	Mar 15/10	Katusa, Marin	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-21,500	$2.810
Aug 05/10	Mar 12/10	Katusa, Marin	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Disposition in the public market	-3,700	$2.900
Aug 05/10	Jun 25/10	Katusa, Marin	Direct Ownership		50 - Grant of options	70,000	$2.390

Otto Smackdown Watch: Casey Research and the right to reply

After yesterday's post that mentioned Casey Research and its buy recommendations on Antares Minerals, I received a mail from David Galland, partner in Casey Research. As I always appreciate hearing and airing points of view different from my own and I also think that anyone who has the wherewithall to stand up to my rantings deserves to be heard, I immediately wrote back to Galland and offered him the chance to get his mail published on the blog by way of 'Right To Reply' so that more people could read his objections to my post. So after he'd given his text a slight polish (just to knock off the edges, the post you'll read is for all intents and purposes the same as the original) he sent me what you can read below.

It's only fair that you get to read his point of view without any further comment, op-ed or snark from me, so there's none of that here. My views can wait for another day. I'll leave you with David Galland.

"Otto",

I generally appreciate your analysis, but am surprised at your intensely negative accusations about Casey Research.

Of course, you can't really know who we are - and so I would like to properly introduce myself, and Casey Research.

The short version is that I was a co-founder of a successful mutual fund group (Blanchard Group) and of EverBank, one of the few success stories in the pure online banking space.

But, when EverBank grew too big, I got tired of it and so agreed to join forces with Doug Casey, a friend of long-standing.

When looking over the business he was in, I realized that there was a huge competitive advantage to be had. Namely, in an industry dominated by one-man shops willing to essentially sell their recommendations, a company that based its recommendations entirely on hard research would likely do well. Put another way, when the sole criteria for a stock recommendation is whether the proverbial check will clear, we should be able to provide real value.

Insanely, we build a team that is now over 40 researchers and support staff (this was in 2004 when the bull market in gold was anything but a sure thing) - "insanely" because this, as I am sure you know, is a very cyclical business. Yet, I trusted Doug's analysis, and my own instinct, and we built the team anyway.

It has been a big win - for our subscribers, and as a enterprise.

Consequently, it's sincerely painful to read your blog accusing us of front running our subscribers. If you go back and review your latest article about Antares, you'll see that your evidence is solely a pick up in volume.

Louis James, the lead researcher and editor of our International Speculator, on seeing your accusation, sent this along:

Some relevant facts:

1] We said right at the top of the IS write up that CIA subs had bought earlier.

2] The company had major, value-adding news just before the CIA rec (huge resource increase) that accounts for the volume the writer finds so suspicious. It would have been beyond bizzarre if there had not been high volume then.

3] The company had major, value-adding news between recs that drove the price up (very favorable metallurgy). Ditto as above.

4] Many CIA recs never make it to IS.

5] IS regularly gets recs that were never mentioned in CIA.

6] It is, in fact, almost always the case that stocks pull back after sharp spikes upwards. There were plenty of people who could see our Buy as an exit opportunity -- everyone non-CR who bought before the CIA rec, for example.

I do not believe there is any honest way the author of those remarks could have missed the news that accounts for the share price action. It looks to me like plain and simple maliciousness

David, again. I am sure you pride yourself on your work – and so I won’t attribute mere maliciousness as your sole motivation. But, per Louis, the hard facts are available – and we are always happy to take a call and answer questions.

Now, I can't know your character, or your attitude about anything. Some times I have come across people who form an opinion, and they stick with it no matter what. Others will stop and listen - perhaps engage in a dialogue to see if they may have had a misimpression.

I'm reaching out to you on a personal level, because it sincerely pains me to read you denigrating our organization - and more than that, Louis James who is the most honest and hard working guy I know.

Even if, as a partner in Casey Research, I insisted that Louis write up some company - which I would never do - and he didn't like the company, he would quit on the spot.

In any event, as I said at the beginning, I understand your bias against any research service working in this space - because much of the time you are going to be right. But in our case, you are wrong.

Don’t take my word for it – instead take time to ask around about us, and feel free to contact me at any time to verify the facts, so you don't have to operate off of assumptions alone.

Thank you for your consideration in this matter.

David Galland

Partner

Casey Research

The Casey Research pyramid scheme

Doug Casey must piss himself laughing at the stupid sheep who are naïve enough to pay him $749 a year for the 'International Speculator'. It's a pity they don't understand just how badly they're getting sheared by this elaborate pyramid scheme set up at Casey.

Wow, I bet all those A-listers were happy to see a sudden jump in volume to sell into.

click to enlarge

Message to Casey Subscribers: YOU ARE BEING RIPPED OFF BY A SELF-SERVING CHARLATAN.

Yours, Otto Rock (long ANM at $1.42 and staying long)

Casey Research, Idiots on Colombia (this week's coveted award)

A really, truly amazingly stupid piece of "research" has been published by the dumbasses over at Casey Research. Authored by Andrey Dashkov, it's the most pathetic attempt to pump up their sagging Colombia junior miner portfolio yet. Jeesh, these guys must be in a serious hole due to the crap they've bought. There's so much to laugh about in Dashkov's report it's tough to know where to begin, so let's just keep it to the level of "show them the dumbassery":

1) The title of the piece is "Columbia (sic): A New Gold Rush?". Yes indeedy, these freakin' experts on the country can't even spell the name of the place right! Another spelling mistake that shines light on their fake expertise is found in paragraph three, where "guerrilla" is spelled with just one "R". This might not sound like much to you, kind and gentle reader, but it's a really clear tell to anyone versed in Spanish that the author doesn't have a clue about the language used in the country of focus. So you profess to be an expert on Colombia but you can't speak the language? Yeah right.

2) Once again, we're told that all the trouble is caused by Marxist terrorists. Yet again, not a single peep about the far right wing terrorists that cause just as much mayhem in the rural areas of Colombia (i.e. where the gold is). In fact, Dashkov seems to fudge the word paramilitary with the word Marxist and has no clue about the difference between the two. Newsflash, dumbass; these people exist in large numbers today and are running drugs right through the places that you want to invest in. And they're toting guns. And they don't give a shit about Socialist policies.

3) We're told by this note dated March 3rd that Uribe might get his way with the constitutional change. O RLY? Somebody tell this guy about the news out of Colombia on February 26th? JEESH!!!

4) We are treated to a freshman dialectic device as old as the hills. This one is the "well, people say that things are bad. This might be true, but point one point two point three etc etc point ninety-seven". By making single mention of "la violencia" (WTF!) Dashkov then believes he has the right to wheel out point after point of the good stuff without decent examination of the negatives. Assholes, greenhorns and sheep, queue here.

5) We get a lot of charts that mostly show percentage changes and no absolute figures, a tactic that always smacks of BS when you know how stats work. But we also get a line that goes "The Colombian economy has fared better than its Latin American peer group" which isn't backed up by any sort of proof. This is because it's utter bullshit. Here's the real story, as shown by quarterly GDP for Colombia as measured by the Colombian gov't DANE stats office (known for their independence and accuracy unlike the BS merchants of Argentina, Peru etc):

Yup, a clear hard landing and pathetic 2009. The first three quarters of 2009 aggregated a -1% drop in GDP. As for "faring better than the LatAm peer group", how about Panama at +2.4%, Argentina at +0.1%, Peru at +0.9% etc etc ad infinitum and star of them all Bolivia at +3.7%.

Andrey Dashkov, you win this week's coveted award. You win it because you're a bullshit liar, a shame on your industry and a fake know-all about a country you clearly know nothing about. Drink your own Kool-Aid but don't brainwash others. Enjoy, dumbass:

Fortuna Silver (FVI.v): Really bad news for Casey subscribers

You missed the 20% upmove due to Louis James's bad call.

In the latest Jan 2010 edition of the Casey Intl Spec thingy, here's how the analysis on Fortuna (FVI.v) concluded:

Fortuna is a low-cost producer with a clear path to tripled production and plenty of blue sky potential, both in new acquisitions and discoveries. We regret retted having to sell, and now that a lot of the risk has been removed, we want it back in our portfolio.

However, there’s no need to rush. This is a story of value being added over time, not of imminent news causing a sudden surge. So, buy on weakness – shoot for C$2.00, and back up the truck for more if a broader market correction gives you a chance to do so under C$1.80.

With precious metals making like a yo-yo, now is the perfect time to exercise some discipline:
Do not chase this stock.

Place limit orders and try to buy under market on days when gold and silver fluctuate downward.

Oh dear Louis...really bad call. All those subscribers hanging on your words and you advise them to wait....now look at what you've done!!! Only gone and missed the rocket ship flight to $2.50.

Now don't be a naughty little boy and claim you got yourself a 25% winner now, will you?

Meanwhile for the rest of you, don't chase that stock!

John Kaiser skewers the Casey BS show

Still on the road, but this one can be done quickly

I was sent this, written by John Kaiser of Kaiser's Bottom Fish, by A. Reader. Well worth consideration by anyone who reads mining newsletters

Missing the boat and even being dead wrong, however, has not stopped the Casey
gang from tooting its horn in self-congratulation, a having your cake and eating
it habit that Stockwatch's John Woods delights in documenting, much to the
displeasure of the Casey Research team. In a recent egregious example Louis
James of the Casey team reiterated his sell recommendation of Rare Element
Resources Ltd, which he had originally recommended at $1.20 on October 19, 2007.
After watching it sag below $0.50 during 2008 and then jump in late May 2009
after Jim Dines recommended the stock, the writer on June 1, 2009 recommended
"recovering your original investment" at $1.41 to his readers, which meant
effectively selling most of the Rare Element position bought at the original
$1.20 recommended price. After Rare Element shot over $4.50 Louis James
described his pick as being up 228.3% at $3.94 and urged any readers who have
not already done so to take profits. Chalk up another big score on behalf of the
Casey stock-picking team. But in an even more cynical practice widely used in
the group's energy report, the Casey team will write up some expensive oil
stock, recommend buying it with a "stink bid" as much as 50% below the market
price, which is in effect a short sale recommendation, and when the stock moves
higher instead, they "close the position" while listing the stink bid price as
the initial recommendation price. For example, in June the energy group
recommended that readers buy Linn Energy LLC at $13 even though it was trading
at $20, and when the stock instead moved to $24, they closed out the position in
October which in the report is listed as "initially recommended at $13 in June
2009". John Woods probably goes to bed every night praying, "please, please,
Casey Research, please sue me".

It's like reading The New York Sun on the influence of the French Revolution to modern society

And then they wonder why the service doesn't make them money. Here's Casey on Peru today (thanks reader K)

Stupidity Watch

Lethal Stupidity On June 5, 2009, reports surfaced of major clashes between protesters and police in Peru, with the death toll now estimated at 34 people. The protests involved tens of thousands of indigenous people who were opposed to mining and energy exploitation in rainforest areas of the country. This prompted the government, on June 18, to revoke two laws enacted last year to open the Amazon to mining, oil, and timber development. Reuters reports that Peru’s president, Alan Garcia, “is under heavy pressure to make more concessions to opposition groups as social unrest and a slower economy undermine his push to attract foreign investors.”

This could result in measures hostile to the interests of resource investors involved in projects far from the rainforest areas. We have no exposure to Peruvian politics in our portfolio at present, but a major anti-industry move in Peru could have regional effects, so we will keep an eye on the story.

I mean, where do you start with this tosh? Maybe with the idea that there are a lot of places in Peru that are umpteenth generation miners and write petitions to mining companies to get them to develop in their areas. Maybe with the way Casey insists on putting the word "miner" before "energy" when the whole thing had nothing to do with any mining concession whatsoever. Or maybe by explaining that if Florida votes against having mining it dosn't mean Nevada is affected. I dunno...it's just so banal, so dumb...there's no saving the text at all.

So let's just call them dumbasses and be done. Y'know, they actually entitled their note "stupidity watch". Better would have been "watch stupidity".

So what can we expect from Fortuna Silver (FVI.v) in the next few days?

Well, considering this chart (and remembering the April 21st malarkey recorded here)...

....and also that FVI.v has been returning to and then bouncing off the silver spot price all year (so far)....

.....there's every reason to expect FVI.v will close that gap with SLV in the next few days. As FVI.v is up and SLV down slightly today, that has closed the gap by 4%. So another 14% to go which, if SLV decides to stay where it is, would put FVI.v at $1.08.

Yep, I think that's a reasonable short term target right now. DYODD, dude.

BTW, would the dumbass who steals my posts and pastes them on stockhouse bullboards (without even having the common decency to provide a link) please stop it? It's not big and it's not clever. I had a reader mailing me today asking whether it was me. It isn't, it's a dumbass. I don't do bullboards any more (unless pointed in the direction).