Doug Casey and Uruguay

For as long as this humble scribe can remember, Uruguay has always been referred to down this way as "The Switzerland of South America" due to its tax haven status for foreigners and banking laws that offer tight secrecy to those who deposit cash there (before writing this post I even found a few articles in English linking Uruguay to Switzerland this way, here's a decent example). So as day follows night, Uruguay has always been home to monetary assets held by...let's say...the more dubious end of South America's wealthy (with the slushy end of Argentina's net worth particularly keen on holding acounts there).

So it came as little surprise to your humble scribe today to find out that Doug Casey is relocating to Montevideo soon. Remember where you heard it first, folks. 

Is Doug Casey a Scientologist?

I don't know personally, but reader 'RM' sent me this link that has the evidence in question and it's an interesting read. I particularly agree with this section from an author obviously well-read in the whacked-out world of Hubbard:

"My objection is not that Casey is a Scientologist, though I think it is legitimate to criticize anyone who knowingly supports the unethical activities of the Church of Scientology.  Rather, my objection is to his making unfounded claims based on Scientology and Hubbard doctrines without being open about his sources.  It's a common tactic by the Church of Scientology and other cults to use front groups and try to conceal their nature until after they've persuaded someone to participate in a program--the Unification Church calls it "heavenly deception."  I've also wondered to what extent Scientology principles are used in Casey's investment advice, and whether Casey has promoted investment in Scientology-related companies, and whether there were any other Scientologists on Browne's financial committee, but I haven't seen any evidence of those things."

Also, interesting is the way the normally err......unafraid to opine Casey has apparently had more than one chance to make a simple denial of his possible Scientology links but has remained very quiet about the subject. Go have a look for yourself.

The great thing about working for Casey Research....

...is that you're never ever wrong. Take for example the latest call on the self-fulfilling Casey prophecy, Bayfield Ventures (BYV.v), the pumpjob we've noted previously as the object of Marin Katusa's finder's fee commission wet dreams and rip-offs.

At the moment, Casey Louis 'Lobito' James' recommendation on the stock (this humble scribe is reliably informed) is that you should buy a "first tranche" (whatever that means, as they've already exhorted you to buy tranches at much higher prices) at 80c and a "second tranche" at 65c if it drops that low. So by noting the current price of 78c...

 ..... we are forced to conclude that:

1) If you buy today and the stock moves back to 80c, Lobito is right.
2) If you buy today and the stock stays below 80c, it's still a great buying opp for BYV and Lobito is right.
3) If you buy today and the stock drops, you get to buy again at 65c and Lobito is right

All the above is also true for those Casey subscribers who read Lobito's pearls of wisdom earlier in the week and snapped up those bargain shares at 82c and 85c. You see, Casey subbers, the fact that your investment has lost money is a mere illusion because we've already proven that your investment advisor is never wrong.

And what happens if BYV drops to under 65c, we hear you ask? Well we're not sure yet but chances are that Lobito will be able to slap an extra layer of superduper buying double tranche with chocolate sauce reco on your tushes....and he'll be right, of course.

UPDATE: Interesting comment left below by  "Casey Subber #19392118" (which presumably means something to them, as they're bound to have an index system):

I admit that I'm a fairly long-time Casey subber and the quality of their picks and confidence in their picks have fallen substantially over the past couple years. They stopped recommending any stocks for about a year because their "Spidey senses" felt a big correction was on its way and now that the market has gone up a ton they do this three tranche buying model. Hmm, guys, let's see. So, it is a good buy now for 1/3rd of my money but just in case the stock goes down you're telling me to buy more at that price. Oh, then if there is a "market meltdown" I should buy more at that point. What if I buy 1/3rd now and the price goes up? Oh wait, I know what happens. You post a double recommendation that says Take Profits/Buy First tranche for new subscribers. Again, what a ridiculous recommendation. Sounds like the foundation of a pyramid scheme.

I know Casey Research follows this blog so why don't you focus a bit more on finding good stocks with good fundamentals and a little less on your marketing. The only reason I still subscribe is I am locked in at your old rates and the subscription costs me next to nothing. I would never consider the new price of $1000 per year. Hah! What a joke.

So, Doug, David, Louis, Marin et al -- grow a set, get off the fernce and make a solid call like you used to.

Posted by Casey Subber #19392118 to IKN at 1:45 PM

Today's big question: Just how stupid is Andrey Dashkov of Casey Research?

Andrey Dashkov: Bartenders, please
ask for ID before serving

This month's Casey International Sheeptator rag included a macro overview of Peru written by the babyfaced Andrey Dashkov, the very same dumbass who recently won the coveted award here at IKN for penning one of the worst overviews of Colombia I'd ever seen. His effort this month on Peru was, unsurprisingly, in the same pisspoor category and showed that not only has he little idea about the place but he has no clue about the basics of the subject he tries to fake expertise about, either. This chart from the note.....

......was presented to his readers as "Peruvian exports". When I saw it the immediate first thought was "HUHH???" cos anyone that has even a passing interest in Peru's economy knows that for the longest time metals exports have been roughly 60% of the country's total, not the 80% presented by the dumbass Dashkov.

Then it struck me what he'd done wrong. It took about 15 minutes to put together this chart that shows the real story (I've even tried to be cute and used the same colour-coding as the Caseyfools, bar the green of course):

click to enlarge

Yep, this Dashkov completely missed out all non-traditional exports! What must have happened is that he finds some dataset or other marked "traditional exports" and is so uneducated about the terms used in country economies that he doesn't even realize that traditional exports are not the whole ballgame....not by a long chalk. I mean, the next time you eat a grape grown in Peru, or wear something made of Peruvian cotton (the third best quality cotton in the world according to those that know about these things) according to Casey Research (word "research" used in the loosest terms possible) it didn't actually come from Peru. Those and a whole mountain of other products, ignored by the ignorant.

This dumbass Dashkov misses out 20% of everything Peru exports! Jeesh! And not only that, the whole editorial team at Caseyfools didn't spot something that would take anyone with an inkling about a nanosecond to spot. But hey...it's Casey. Do you really expect truth and accuracy from these shills?

Meanwhile, Andrey Dashkov has managed to make himself look verysillyperson over his lack of nous about first Colombia and now Peru. I wonder which country he's going to be allowed to butcher next?

Casey Research, Idiots on Colombia (this week's coveted award)

A really, truly amazingly stupid piece of "research" has been published by the dumbasses over at Casey Research. Authored by Andrey Dashkov, it's the most pathetic attempt to pump up their sagging Colombia junior miner portfolio yet. Jeesh, these guys must be in a serious hole due to the crap they've bought. There's so much to laugh about in Dashkov's report it's tough to know where to begin, so let's just keep it to the level of "show them the dumbassery":

1) The title of the piece is "Columbia (sic): A New Gold Rush?". Yes indeedy, these freakin' experts on the country can't even spell the name of the place right! Another spelling mistake that shines light on their fake expertise is found in paragraph three, where "guerrilla" is spelled with just one "R". This might not sound like much to you, kind and gentle reader, but it's a really clear tell to anyone versed in Spanish that the author doesn't have a clue about the language used in the country of focus. So you profess to be an expert on Colombia but you can't speak the language? Yeah right.

2) Once again, we're told that all the trouble is caused by Marxist terrorists. Yet again, not a single peep about the far right wing terrorists that cause just as much mayhem in the rural areas of Colombia (i.e. where the gold is). In fact, Dashkov seems to fudge the word paramilitary with the word Marxist and has no clue about the difference between the two. Newsflash, dumbass; these people exist in large numbers today and are running drugs right through the places that you want to invest in. And they're toting guns. And they don't give a shit about Socialist policies.

3) We're told by this note dated March 3rd that Uribe might get his way with the constitutional change. O RLY? Somebody tell this guy about the news out of Colombia on February 26th? JEESH!!!

4) We are treated to a freshman dialectic device as old as the hills. This one is the "well, people say that things are bad. This might be true, but point one point two point three etc etc point ninety-seven". By making single mention of "la violencia" (WTF!) Dashkov then believes he has the right to wheel out point after point of the good stuff without decent examination of the negatives. Assholes, greenhorns and sheep, queue here.

5) We get a lot of charts that mostly show percentage changes and no absolute figures, a tactic that always smacks of BS when you know how stats work. But we also get a line that goes "The Colombian economy has fared better than its Latin American peer group" which isn't backed up by any sort of proof. This is because it's utter bullshit. Here's the real story, as shown by quarterly GDP for Colombia as measured by the Colombian gov't DANE stats office (known for their independence and accuracy unlike the BS merchants of Argentina, Peru etc):

Yup, a clear hard landing and pathetic 2009. The first three quarters of 2009 aggregated a -1% drop in GDP. As for "faring better than the LatAm peer group", how about Panama at +2.4%, Argentina at +0.1%, Peru at +0.9% etc etc ad infinitum and star of them all Bolivia at +3.7%.

Andrey Dashkov, you win this week's coveted award. You win it because you're a bullshit liar, a shame on your industry and a fake know-all about a country you clearly know nothing about. Drink your own Kool-Aid but don't brainwash others. Enjoy, dumbass:

A big thank you to Doug Casey (this week's coveted award)

Thank you for the laugh. I'm still chuckling full 12 hours after reading it.

A. Person sent me this thing called "Conversations With Casey" last night, which is an e-mail that has Doug Casey chewing the cud with some dude called Louis James. So yesterday's version (on line here) had the guy that is getting ripped off by his cattle ranch managers in Argentina (but he doesn't know that) talking about science fiction ('SF' or 'speculative fiction' if you like, Duggie) that includes this exchange:

Doug: Yes. I have little use for English professors. Their standard complaint is that SF isn't "great literature" – which is nothing more than a foolish and unsubstantiated opinion. The relevant fact of this matter is that a variation of Pareto's law applies: 80% of everything is crap. And of the 20% that's left, 80% of that is just mediocre. So, of course 80% of SF is crap – but so is 80% of everything else. And the best speculative fiction, the top 4%, is world-class literature. And it has much greater ideational content – by an order of magnitude – than any other genre of literature. That more than makes up for the lack of poetry in some of the prose.

L: What matters more; a book that challenges your mind to think in new directions, or onomatopoeia?

Doug: Exactly. No question. Anyone who wants to claim to be a well-read person has to read speculative fiction. In fact, my two favorite areas for reading have long been ancient literature and speculative fiction – bracketing the two ends of the spectrum of time, if you will.

L: Perhaps so, chronologically. But I suspect the ancients would have been looking around at a world that was new to them and full of mysteries and unexplained frontiers – just the sort of things SF authors tend to write about.

Doug: Yes, it's very interesting. Paradoxical, in some ways. The Greek and Nordic myths are actually a form of SF.

How anyone who claims to have read the classics can come out with a statement as crass as "the Greek and Nordic myths are actually a form of SF" is pretty impressive in itself, but to actually allow it to be published with his name at the side is another level altogether.

Anyone who has even scratched the surface of the subject will have heard of the mythos/logos issue. In fact, calling them "The Greek And Nordic Myths" as Casey does is a direct entry point to the mythos, as that's what the myths were based upon. The "mythos", the "myths" as manifested by the Greeks (and their Nordic counterparts) were not written or enacted by ancients trying to fathom the world as they see it. Myths weren't created to be 'reasonable'; that was left to the logos, which was the part of the Greek philosophy that has influenced western society to this day. The ancient myths were "mythos-to-logos" whereas a modern SF tale is "logos-to-mythos", when a writer (SF writers typically have strong scientific background) create their fantasy to explain where they see the future of their logical, scientific discoveries. Misunderstanding the mythos a freshman level error of judgement that has been refuted more times than can be imagined by those that really what the hell they're talking about.

Really there are reams that could be written on this one, but to cut a long story short taking a logos-based literature (SF) that has grown from modern society and saying that the mythos-based literature laid down all those years ago is the same thing would get you an immediate and unequivocal "fail" score in any classroom worth its salt. Any idiot can read the classics and go "oh, neat story dude". This is not about the validity or otherwise of Asimov (an extremely good read, fwiw) his peers or a literature such as SF; it's about a man called Casey that's spouting crap and trying to sound way smarter about a subject than he clearly and really is.

I always suspected there was intellectual mediocrity behind that facade of arrogance. Now the evidence is clear. Doug Casey, you don't have the slightest clue as to what you're talking about and therefore win this week's coveted award; enjoy, dumbass:

John Kaiser skewers the Casey BS show

Still on the road, but this one can be done quickly

I was sent this, written by John Kaiser of Kaiser's Bottom Fish, by A. Reader. Well worth consideration by anyone who reads mining newsletters

Missing the boat and even being dead wrong, however, has not stopped the Casey
gang from tooting its horn in self-congratulation, a having your cake and eating
it habit that Stockwatch's John Woods delights in documenting, much to the
displeasure of the Casey Research team. In a recent egregious example Louis
James of the Casey team reiterated his sell recommendation of Rare Element
Resources Ltd, which he had originally recommended at $1.20 on October 19, 2007.
After watching it sag below $0.50 during 2008 and then jump in late May 2009
after Jim Dines recommended the stock, the writer on June 1, 2009 recommended
"recovering your original investment" at $1.41 to his readers, which meant
effectively selling most of the Rare Element position bought at the original
$1.20 recommended price. After Rare Element shot over $4.50 Louis James
described his pick as being up 228.3% at $3.94 and urged any readers who have
not already done so to take profits. Chalk up another big score on behalf of the
Casey stock-picking team. But in an even more cynical practice widely used in
the group's energy report, the Casey team will write up some expensive oil
stock, recommend buying it with a "stink bid" as much as 50% below the market
price, which is in effect a short sale recommendation, and when the stock moves
higher instead, they "close the position" while listing the stink bid price as
the initial recommendation price. For example, in June the energy group
recommended that readers buy Linn Energy LLC at $13 even though it was trading
at $20, and when the stock instead moved to $24, they closed out the position in
October which in the report is listed as "initially recommended at $13 in June
2009". John Woods probably goes to bed every night praying, "please, please,
Casey Research, please sue me".

Fortuna Silver (FVI.v), Doug Casey, Sheep and an Excellent Buying Opportunity for Serious Investors

Right now Fortuna Silver (FVI.v) is down 12.77% at $0.82 on triple average volumes because a large flock of unwitting sheep have been fed bullshit by the scamster Doug Casey.

Yesterday, "the Casey team" decided to publish a "sell" alert on Fortuna. You can read the whole thing below (and f*** your copyright Dougieboy...bite me) but basically the note's argument is that due to political and social problems at its San José project in southern Mexico they decided it's not a good time to hold.

This is bullshit. I've just got off the phone with FVI and they've told me that yes, the road is blocked there right now but it isn't affecting FVI's operations in the slightest. They also made it 100% clear that they have the support of the vast majority of locals. In their words, "if we didn't have local support they would have kicked us out ages ago. And how on earth could we have recently submitted our environmental impact study without respecting the local people and getting full cooperation from them?" Quite right. Casey speaks of "kidnappings", which sounds dramatic in the English language but it's not that much, really. In a protest situation the act of holding someone against their will may technically be called kidnapping, but it's a very common occurance South of the Rio Grande. Casey talks about "beatings"; oh yeah? Show us the bruises, blowhard! Casey talks about "our sources in Mexico" which is the biggest laugh of the lot, as all they're doing here is taking the conversation they had with FVI and spinning it their own way. They probably couldn't find Oaxaca on a map, let alone have a special source there. It seems that the agitators are using very suspect arguments to make their protest, too. For example they are trying to scare people by talking about cyanide and its effects when FVI is not going to use cyanide at San José.

So why has Casey sent out this sell alert? That's easy enough...he's a self-serving manipulator. He most probably sold out above a buck and now wants in lower and I'll bet you a tenspot that soon enough when this has all blown over (and it will), Casey will alert his sheep with a "Good news! Looks like it was a false alarm! We can take advantage of these low prices, folks!" message and up she goes again....after having bought in himself, of course.

The guy is a despicable, untrustworthy BSser. Here's the column from yesterday that's managed to part his flock from their bankroll once again. Fortunately he's also a great contrary indicator and I'll be picking up FVI once the sheep have panicked their way to the bottom. That may be today or may be tomorrow, but be crystal clear that just the Peru Caylloma operation on its own is worth at least $0.90, so right now you're getting the San José gig for free and Caylloma at a discount. DYODD

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Comments: This is very good news from Caylloma, much as expected; they've increased the silver grade and production substantially, which should help the bottom line.

Unfortunately, the news from Oaxaca, Mexico, where the company's high-grade gold-silver San Jose project is located, is not so good. There has been violence, including beatings and kidnapping of local officials (but not any company personnel, yet).

Our sources in Mexico indicate that with an election coming up, state and federal officials don't want to get involved -- they don't want photos on the front page of every newspaper showing police or army units dragging peasants away. Neither does the company, for that matter.

The good news is that the San Jose story does not have significant national presence in Mexico yet, with little mainstream press coverage. There's coverage on several left-wing, environmentalist web sites -- a clear smear campaign -- but it's not clear that there is any serious money behind them. Fortuna's proposed processing wouldn't even use cyanide, so the scaremongering is even more unfounded than usual.

From what we have gathered so far, San Jose does not seem to be a major focal point the international environmental movement has chosen to pick a fight over. So, the trouble could blow over.

Also on the plus side, Fortuna is done with its drilling and had no time-sensitive work going on at the time the trouble boiled over, so the road blockade has not materially affected operations.

Management argues that if the town really didn't want the mine developed, the company would have been blocked long ago and would never have been given permission to drill, etc. We have been on site and agree; the protesters are not the Voice of the People.

Simon Ridgway and Jorge Ganoza are smart guys, with many years of experience dealing with Latin American politics; if anyone can smooth this over, it's this management team.

However, there's bad news too:

We hear that the mayor tried to call a town meeting, and the agitators broke it up and kidnapped the mayor for some hours.

We understand that the ejido (land commission) also tried to have a meeting, and that the agitators broke that up with violence as well, kidnapped the ejido commissioner, and beat his wife severely.

There’s a local priest lending his support to the anti-mining crowd.

This means the problem will likely drag on. If greater violence breaks out between the pro-mining factions (which seem to be in the majority) and anti-mining factions (which are screaming about cyanide and cancer), it's unlikely that the result will be a peaceful, pro-mining community.

Where does all this leave Fortuna?

We like the Caylloma mine a great deal, but it's relatively small; San Jose is very important to the company’s future.

It's possible that the trouble-makers could be persuaded (or bribed) by their neighbors to drop their opposition or leave. The fact that Fortuna has been able to work in the community for years does support the view that most of the locals are on their side. The fact that Fortuna doesn't actually need to do any work on the ground right now (the drilling is done, and the core is all logged -- the next step is in the hands of the engineering firm doing the resource estimate -- argues for patience.

Sooner or later, Simon and Jorge will probably make this work.

However, the fact that there is no clear solution in sight argues for getting out. If we sell and things go south for a time, we might be able to buy back in cheaper. And if we sell and things clear up, we can always buy back in again, with our transaction costs being our main source of pain. But if we hold on and things get rough in Oaxaca, we'll probably have to hold for a very long time to get out without taking a much larger loss.

Consequently, we are, regretfully, closing our position in Fortuna. For now. Some of us here at Casey Research may hold on to our shares, because we have a high tolerance for risk and can be patient for years, if necessary. But the logical thing to recommend is stepping aside while there is elevated political risk, with an eye towards reentering the stock when things clear up and the shares seem poised for take-off again.

Morning Mailbag: Apoquindo, Chariot and Doug Casey

"Well, call me crazy, but it is my philosophy that in
order to be successful one must project
an image of success at all times."
Buddy King, American Beauty (1999)

I haven't done one of these posts in a while, so as three worthy candidates have come my way in the last few hours here we go.

Apoquindo (AQM.v): After this post on Tuesday IKN received the following comment from the management at AQM.v yesterday via the comments section, so by way of 'right to reply' here it is in an open post so that more people see it. For the record I agree totally about Villarzú's integrity and his good standing in the copper industry. All I'm saying is that his price predictions on spot copper suck, the puff-piece interview with that copper-ignorant and backpocket-biased Andrew Mickey dude is way too suspect to be taken seriously and the IR company in the middle of the whole thing needs to take a long, hard look at how it's doing its job if it wants to build a worthy following instead of just court the fickle, popular vote. I mean, check the share price action:
So here's the reply from AQM.v. Fair dos to Ms. Ashton, she defends the company corner well.

I want to defend Juan Villarzu as a person with great integrity. You may disagree with his views, but they are genuinely held. I am a director of Apoquindo Minerals, Stephanie Ashton, and the title King of Copper was not made by Mr. Villarzu, he would not call himself that. Basically, to further explain his view, Mr. Villarzu believes that the current crisis is fundamentally a crisis in confidence, and that regaining confidence could change the economic situation very rapidly. He also says that the current crisis differs from other crisis in history, since never before has there been such a massive, concerted and rapid response by governments and central banks worldwide, and this will cause the recovery to be quicker. He believes in copper growth in China, and that alone will mean enough demand for copper, along with production cutbacks, that will result in a higher copper price. Yes Kin Communications is the IR company for Apoquindo, and I do not see what is the problem with the IR company doing its job. Most people disagree with Juan Villarzu´s opinion, as evidenced by the Cru conference presentations currently occurring in Santiago, but he is not alone in view, and it is genuinely held. He is a believer in the metal, as we all are here at Apoquindo.

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Chariot Resources (CHD.to): CHD.to has been a pain in the side of Tom Meyer, analyst at Raymond James, as he rode his pick down through 2008. However Meyer deserves credit for sticking to his guns (though lowering his prices target by an order of magnitude) because 1) Meyer is very good at working the numbers and seeing underlying value and 2) copper has been coming back some and there is light at the end of this tunnel. So with that context, here's Meyer's latest update on the company, out this morning.

Chariot Resources Ltd. CHD-TSX
8th Delay in the Feasibility Study - The End Must Be Near
Tom Meyer, CFA, P.Eng

RATING STRONG BUY 1
Target Price (6-12 mths) (C$) 0.50
Closing Price (C$) 0.24
Total Return to Target 108%

Event
Chariot announced, before market open on Mar-31-09, yet another delay in the release of the feasibility study on its 70%-owned Mina Justa Cu project in Peru. The study is now planned to be released on or before Apr-23-09 (prev. 1Q09).

Action
We reiterate our STRONG BUY rating and are increasing our target to C$0.50 (prev. C$0.40). In anticipation of the "almost done" feasibility study and our view of possible M&A activity as the miner's balance sheets improve with the rebound in commodity prices, we have increased our target P/NAV multiple to 0.30x (prev. 0.20x). This increase more than offsets our model adjustments to account for the added delay and capex and opex uncertainty (we biased our numbers slightly higher). All told, we have reduced our NAV estimate to C$1.65 (prev. C$1.81).

Analysis
- Capex/Opex uncertainty. Similar to the explanation given for the previous delay, management indicated that it is currently in the process of estimating the most up-to-date capital and operating costs. We estimate an initial capital cost of US$490 mln and a life of mine average operating cost of US$0.77/lb [opex includes sulphide flotation mill (additional capex of US$135 mln) starting in year 3 of project life].

- Mine planning parameters. According to management, the feasibility study envisions processing 12 million tonnes per year with an average grade of 0.58% Cu through the vat leach plant to produce up to ~60,000 tonnes per year of cathode and processing 5 million tonnes per year with an average grade of 1.25% Cu through a concentrator to produce up to 56,000 tonnes per year of copper in concentrate. We estimate first production in 2H12.

- Liquidity. According to the press release, Chariot has ~C$19 million in cash and is responsible for funding 70% of the project's US$8 million budget in 2009.

Valuation
CHD shares trade at a P/NAV of 0.15x versus its peer group weighted average at 0.62x. Our target price is based on a 0.30x P/NAV multiple and is in-line with risk and liquidity-adjusted historic multiples for advanced projects

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Doug Casey: Following yesterday's TradingPost, here's a mail from a regular reader, initial "R". Good to see that the smarter among you consider him, at best, a stage along the way.

I've developed a real dislike for that guy (Casey). I hate to admit I was a subscriber for a while. His entire operation is one big marketing drive. You sign up for one service, they tout another. And another. And another. Too many layers, and way too much appeal to elitism. Way too little in the way of performance too. He buries you in more picks than you could ever afford, then selectively touts the winners while tap dancing the burning match routine when his losers blow up.

And what's with the Salta crap? Like I'm gonna sip wine and play polo all day with Mr. Risty while the rest of the world burns? **** that. I hope he gets overrun by Marxist guerillas.

The final straw was when he hired some so-called ex-CIA spooks to snoop for poop. As if. Show us your badges hosers. Don't got any? Thought so. Oh, and the hijacking of ERIS, as if he had clue one what Anton Wilson was about. That really irritates me. He and Tony Robbins should get together.