Showing posts with label lehman brothers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lehman brothers. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Venezuela, Bankers, Gov'ts and CYA

(click to enlarge)

The above is a circular from Venezuela's superintendent of banks dated 23rd September (today) that was sent to just about anyone that handles money in the country today. Here comes the translation (which is full of financialisms and legalese and tough to translate succinctly from this type of blahblah Spanish to English, but what you need to know is in bold-type)

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(Standard protocol letter beginning) I am writing in conformity with the established rules of article 238 of the Decree with Range, Value and Legal Force of the Partial Reform of the General Law of Banks and Other Financial Institutions, in order to instruct you to set aside provisions equivalent to fifty percent (50%) of assets held or established in any type of deed emitted, constituted, backed or guaranteed by Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch investment banks or any of their branches, affiliates or connected or related businesses.

The provision referred to in the previous paragraph will be constituted in the lapse of one (1) day from the date of reception of this circular and a certified copy must be sent to this organism and subscribed by the president of this institution, with receipts that show compliance to that instructed here. Said receipts must be accompanied by a breakdown that details the assets subject to the provisionment. In the case that the instituion does not possess the type of asset described it is equally obliged to send to this organization a certificate of the president of said institution that does not prejudice the applicationof the sanctions that would take place in the occasion of non-compliance with the aforemetnioned instructions.


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So what does this mean? Does this mean Venezuela is in bigtime hock to the LEH and ML collapses? Does this mean there is panic in the streets of Caracas tonight? Does this mean that Anti-Chávez media will be able to cast doubt on the stability of the country's banking system?

The answers to those questions are 'no', 'no' and 'yes' in turn (and the last one is only a 'yes' cos they'll grasp at any straw available). What's going on here is a smart piece of CYA (cover your ass) from the gov't circle which also allows them to find out something they really want to know (ie how much crap they're going to get splattered with).

This provision is basically asking the bankdudes to write back to the gov't banking ombudsdudes and say, "Don't worry, we're cool and covered dudes" one by one. Those without exposure to LEH and ML toxicity just say so, and those with exposure just say "yep, we have some of that shit but we have the hole covered, no worries, pretty promise."

This then allows the gov't dudes to go to the Chávez dude and say "we have no problem with the toxic fallout from the USofA, H-man, and I have a piece of signed paper to prove it!", which then allows the H-man to go on Aló Presidente this weekend and say "Good news everybody! We're totally free of problems from the Empire's banking collapse, and they've even given me a signed piece of paper to prove it!" (cue applause from people wearing red).

So despite what you might read from the pen of Simon Romero, Andes Oppenheimer or any of their wretched neophytes tomorrow, this is no big deal. And if caca does hit a ventilador and a Venezuelan private bank gets in problems from any future LEH/ML toxic fallout, Hugo's gov't will have a piece of paper that the same troubled bank's topdog signed which will be more than enough for the gov't to be able to say "Aha!! The Capitalist swine lied to us! Throw him in jail!".

So now you know how CYA works in LatAm (not just Venezuela I hasten to add). Any questions?

Snarky shots

Let's get catty...meow

A full two weeks ago I put forward "the Lehman/Beracha riddle" and asked if anyone could solve it. It now looks like somebody is about halfway there, and strangely enough that somebody works in Lehman. Hopefully she'll get paid at the end of this month, too.

Banks in Venezuela are running the ruler over Ecuador holdings, the main reason nothing to do with any pre or post election turbulence. It's more that the brothers in revolutionary arms over in the Bolivarian Republic are some of the arch-capitalists holding portions of the bonds considered 'illegal' by Studmuffin.

The only proven fact in this post coming up right now: President Twobreakfasts García's approval rating is down at 19%. But nobody cares any more...nobody. Peru is tired of him, and he just ignores his people's judgement and does what the hell he wants. And you guys up there think the dictator lives in Venezuela?

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Lehman Brothers Files for Bankruptcy


According to the NYT's "dealbook" blog (that's pretty sharp on these things), Lehman (LEH) is filing for Chapter 11 and Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection after failing to find a buyer/saviour. Quoting Dealbook:

According to people briefed on the matter, Lehman Brothers will file for bankruptcy protection on Sunday night, in the largest failure of an investment bank since the collapse of Drexel Burnham Lambert 18 years ago.

Lehman will seek to place its parent company, Lehman Brothers Holdings, into bankruptcy protection, while its subsidiaries will remain solvent while the firm liquidates its holdings, these people said. A consortium of banks will provide a yada yada etc etc click the link for the rest

Think this has nothing to do with Latin America? Think again. Think Venezuelan bonds, think FONDEN, think LEH underwriting, and think that without a shadow of a doubt Señor Moris Beracha is not a happy person tonight. Guaranteed. You wouldn't be either if you were in the hole to the potential tune of U$300m. Your forward-looking Otto says that this one might unwind in a direction you couldn't possibly imagine.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Lehman Brothers, Moris Beracha and Venezuelan Bonds

Albert's back with another riddle!

There's something going on that involves Lehman Brothers, Moris Beracha and a whole heap of Venezuelan bonds. There's something about the combo of these three elements that's making a few people break into cold sweats today.
  • We know that Lehman Brothers (LEH) was the original emissor of structured debt paper currently being held in the Venezuelan "FONDEN" development fund holding tank.
  • We know that Beracha advised Lehman on the deal.
  • We know that a lot of the debt was paid off by the Central Bank under an initiative devised by Beracha and ex Finance minister Isea, but that policy was stopped in its tracks before the Treasury guys got round to paying off the Lehman debt.
  • We know that the structured debt is worth around U$300m and is currently at a discount to face value (we don't know what kind of discount, though).
  • We know that out of the blue last week Lehman issued a "buy PdVSA debt" call (though it should be stressed that PdVSA debt is not the same paper as the Lehman emitted structured debt in FONDEN).
  • We know that LEH stock is under severe pressure at the moment.
  • We know that Warren Buffett is famous for saying "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." Now whatever made me think of that one?????
So what's going on here? Can anyone put these pieces together and make a pretty picture?

Related Posts
Moris Beracha and the Venezuelan parallel exchange rate
Venezuela's currency slide: Mo' Moris
Lehman Bros and Venezuela Bonds and Otto

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Lehman Bros and Venezuela Bonds and Otto

Ok, hands up who remembers this line from yesterday's snippets;

"Why has Lehman Brothers (LEH) suddenly become interested in the Venezuela parallel rate and the role of Moris Beracha in the country's finance policy? All will be revealed shortly, I'm quite sure."

Well, we didn't have to wait long. Here's a PR from Lehman this morning, and while you're reading through, reflect on how incredibly connected this little Otto must be:

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Lehman Brothers | Fixed Income Research
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Emerging Markets Intraday Comment
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Gianfranco Bertozzi September 4, 2008
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Buy PDVSA
We think that investors should look to own PDVSA bonds at current levels. We
see several reasons to own these assets. All three bonds appear attractive from
different standpoints.

PDVSA 2017s are currently yielding over 11%. We think this is very attractive
for a bond with less than 10-year maturity, and the bonds trade about 80bp wide
to Venezuela 2016s and 100bp above N2018s in z-spread terms. Furthermore, the
2017s appear cheap relative to CDS, as shown in the basis chart below. On a
switch basis, this is the attractive part of the curve, and meanwhile, default
risk is extremely low, in our opinion, for this quasi-sovereign issuer.


[http://llpublic.lehman.com/LAS/UnauthProxy/RSL/jsp/researchDispatcher.jsp?dispatchID=PUBLIC_IMAGE&docID=102105190&streamFile=YES]

Yet while a payment default seems highly unlikely, current CDS spreads are
suggesting a 46% probability of default within 5 years and up to 74%
probability over a 10-year period. Bond-implied probabilities of default are
even higher. Using a constant hazard rate model, we find that the 10-year
cumulative probability of default is 87%. PDVSA has no history of default, and
we believe that oil prices are destined to be higher in the next 10 years than
they have been in the previous 10 years. In addition, PDVSA's recent efforts in
cleaning up Petrozuata debt sends a strong signal to markets about
its commitment to avoiding default.

PDVSA 2027s and especially 2037s may look a little less compelling on a switch
basis, but we think that they are more compelling credits to own outright. Both
are trading near all-time lows on a price basis and are trading close to
recovery levels - these very low dollar price bonds give investors nearly
unparalleled convexity in EM. The bonds have also underperformed CDS in recent
weeks.

Moreover, because VOD is much lower on these bonds, investors can hedge their
position at minimal cost. The investor will need $2.5 million notional of 10-
year CDS to hedge $10 million notional of PDVSA2027s and $2.2 million notional
of 10-year CDS to hedge $10 million notional of PDVSA 2037s to make the trade
VOD-neutral (assuming 40% recovery rate). We think that in a rally fueled by
liability management, stronger oil prices, or improved market sentiment, these
bonds could rally several points. When we look across the asset class, we see
few places where an investor has as much upside and such capped downside.

Gianfranco Bertozzi

Phil Yuhn