So what does Cormark think about Base Metals in 2011, Otto?

Well funny you should ask that, because just this morning those nice people at Cormark delivered a 32 page tome of loveliness on base metals and prospects to the marketplace. Click through and download your own copy of the PDF, but by way of a taster here's the covering letter that came with the note. Good stuff.

Base Metals - Deficits Looming On The Horizon As Demand Poised To Outpace Supply - Monday, January 10, 2011 

With metal prices in Q4/10 sustaining levels above our recent forecasts, we are taking this opportunity to adjust our commodity forecasts. We have also adjusted our long-term assumptions modestly to reflect the ongoing weakness in the US dollar. Driven by continued growth in China, an emerging India and a slow but recovering western world, we maintain the view that the supply side response will be insufficient, especially for copper, coking coal and zinc, thereby pushing prices higher. While the recent run up always leaves room for a correction, we believe the fundamentals remain robust and the ongoing weakness in the US dollar coupled with inflation uncertainty should only add to the price support. As such, we see the price strength continuing in 2011 and believe material price spikes are not out of the question. On the equities side, we would look for M&A activity to heat up given the robust cash position within the industry and the need to commit to new supply over the medium term to alleviate market tightness.  

In light of our revised price deck, we have updated our near-term earnings and cash flow estimates. We have also adjusted our target prices and recommendations based upon our revised outlook and current market prices. Our valuation methodology remains unchanged. In general we continue to view the sector as a blanket buy and maintain it is prudent to have an overweight position.

DYODD

What does Goldman Sachs say about gold?

Find out by downloading the Goldman PDF report dated August 11th right here, but below find excerpts:

Gold prices have sold off on lower speculative positioning …

After rallying to a record high in June, gold prices have declined on a selloff in speculative futures positions and gold-ETF holdings. Although the sell-off in speculative positions might not be surprising given the rise to a record-high price and decreased concerns over European sovereign debt, it stands in sharp contrast to the movements in US real interest rates, which have fallen to near-decade lows.

… however significantly lower US real rates point to higher prices

Under our gold framework, COMEX gold market positioning tends to reflect US real interest rates, with low US rates driving a high level of net speculative length in gold futures. Consequently, the recent decline in gold net speculative length, even as 10-year US TIPS yields fall below 1.00%, suggests that the gold market is now oversold, and we expect increasing speculative long positions to carry gold prices back toward our 6-month COMEX gold price forecast of $1,300/toz.

Renewed quantitative easing measures by the US Fed would be an effective catalyst to drive gold prices higher

We expect the current low real interest rate environment to continue as our US economics team recently lowered their US growth outlook for 2011, with the implication that the US Federal Reserve will likely keep short-term US interest rates low through 2011. This should provide further upside support to gold prices and raise the upside risk to our current gold price forecasts. In addition, our US economics team also expects that the US Federal Reserve will return to quantitative easing measures in late 2010 or early 2011. We believe that a return to quantitative easing could act as a strong catalyst to carry gold prices to higher levels.

Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) reports its quarter

How earnings have progressed at FVI, 2007 to date

Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) filed its 2q10 financials and its 2q10 MD&A (click on those links to download your copies) a few minutes ago. A solid quarter (as expected) including:

• 5c EPS

• 55% operating margin at Caylloma

• Cash cost at Caylloma of negative $5.23/oz silver

• A strong working cap position of U$71.7m, more than enough to pay for the San José capex (even if you forget the earnings to come in the next quarters at Caylloma)

This stock is dirt cheap. Toldya enough times and repeated the message in IKN65, two Sundays ago, using these words:

Fortuna Silver (FVI.to): The holding pattern continues. I’m just going to take a couple of lines here to say out loud that I still believe this current period is an outstanding window of opportunity to accumulate FVI shares and that this stock is as good as they come in the junior mining world. When push comes to shove, you can keep your hotpot juniors with their discovery holes and overhyped potential, because I’ll take exceptional underlying value as my point of departure every single time. Top pick, end of story. Rah-rah.

Those words were written with FVI at $2.08. It's now $2.40. Just sayin'. More analysis in IKN67 this Sunday. DYODD.

This week's freebie

This one looks quite fun. Sign up for this free eNewsletter and you get a delivered digest of financial blogging, featuring the "best of the web" (which means you'll never get this humble corner of cyberspace featured...natch squared).

Anyhow, take a look at the blurb and get wiser on the markets via this thing. Totally free too, so the price suits.

Receive Your Complimentary eNewsletter NOW! "BlogNotions Finance Newsletter: Monthly eNewsletter Featuring Blogs from Industry Experts" Receive the BlogNotions monthly email series and stay up-to-date on the latest happenings in the financial world with insight from the web's most respected bloggers. BlogNotions' Finance eNewsletter delivers a diverse series of perspectives provided by finance, accounting, and tax thought leaders, and delivers compelling updates on topics ranging from accounting, banking, financial planning, trading, and much more. This newsletter not only provides thought provoking content, but also is accompanied by an open forum for savvy finance professionals to collaborate with experts in the industry. Don't miss this valuable eNewsletter, subscribe today! Offered Free by: NetLine Corporation Other Resources from: NetLine Corporation Tags: more ...

In Gold We Trust

Gold Porn!

Earlier this week A. Person kindly sent over a 71 page report published by The Ernst Group (bigboy money house in Austria) in June 2010 called "In Gold We Trust". To give you an idea of the yummy goldbug content on offer, here are the bullet points from the front page:

• Gold outsparkling other assets for the 9th consecutive year
• The bark is repaired, but the wood stays rotten
• Soft metal, hard money: the REMONETISATION has started
• Why gold is no bubble
• The creation of money from the perspective of the Austrian School of Economics
• Risk/return profile of gold investments remains very favorable
• Gold mining shares on attractive levels
• Central banks have adjusted their attitude towards gold
• Next phase of the bull market: Parabolic phase ahead?
• Next target price at USD 1,600
• At the end of the parabolic trend phase we expect at least USD 2,300/ounce

Yes indeed, this is serious gold love-in material and, snark aside, it really does do a good job in putting forward the gold bull rationale with decent arguments and statistical structure. You too can download your 1.67Mb copy by clicking this link right here. Goldbugs will lap up every word, but the more normally-adjusted will also benefit greatly from reading this report too. Enjoy.

An excellent report on silver miners (and free, too)

A few days ago I got to see a new report written by the guys over at Metal Augmentor. I thought it was really good work and so floated the idea back to them that they put a version in a PDF file and then we stick the report up here on IKN, offering it as a free download to anyone and everyone. So today that's exactly what is happening.

Click here to download your free report. It's an excellent comparative analysis of nine silver producers, with plenty of charts, lots of smart commentary and recommendations for investors too (and fwiw, Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) scores well compared to peers). I'll leave you with the opening blurb from the note, as it explains more about the authors too.

The Metal Augmentor is an investment research service located at www.metalaugmentor.com. We specialize in covering gold, silver and other metals and mining stocks from primarily a fundamental perspective along with some technical analysis as well as market timing. We have built a robust peer valuation database for exploration stage, development stage, and production stage gold, silver, base metal, and “energy metal” companies. This report focuses on the universe of mid-tier silver producers, loosely defined as companies that produce on the order of 3 to 25 million ounces of silver per year, that generate the majority of their revenue from silver production, and that are generally viewed by investors as silver mining companies.

HERE'S THE LINK TO THE FREE DOWNLOAD AGAIN, just in case.

PS: I'd like to point out nice and clearly that IKN or this author or anyone connected does not receive any sort of direct benefit (cash, commish, etc etc) from passing this on to you (and we're nothing at all to do with metal augmentor, either). The only benefit IKN gets is being able to pass on a great analysis to its readership at no cost, so hopefully you'll remember me in a happy sunny way afterwards.

Fortuna Silver (FVI.to): CIBC joins the party

So let's see what CIBC thinks of Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) all of a sudden:

As of March 2, we are initiating coverage of Fortuna Silver with a Sector Outperformer rating and a 12- to 18-month price target of C$3.75, which is based on a 2011E P/CF multiple of 10x and a P/NAV multiple of 1.7x. Our multiples reflect excellent growth tempered by the stature of the company.

We believe Fortuna has one of the best operations teams in the junior silver producer space, which is evident by unit cost control at Caylloma and the free cash flow generation over the past three years.

In 2010, we believe that production growth will trump almost all other valuations and that Fortuna will deliver this growth with the commissioning of the San Jose project, which is expected to be in commercial production in late 2011.

Flexibility and exploration upside at Caylloma, combined with additional precious metals revenue from San Jose, give Fortuna the ability to match production with prevailing metal prices and ensure high operating margins into the future.

So nice of them to join the party. Get the full analysis as a PDF download from this link right here.

Desjardins, bullish on copper

John Redstone and his pals over at Desjardins are still very bullish copper. The Feb 23rd note out of the house was headed up by their "controversial calls" bullet points this way:

• Controversial call #1: Real demand for copper in China is growing at a faster rate than consensus

• Controversial call #2: The level of unreported copper inventory in China is declining at a significant rate

• Controversial call #3: Declining copper inventory in China’s bonded warehouses is a key event

• Controversial call #4: LME copper inventory should decline through 2Q10

• Controversial call #5: Declining copper imports into China should not impact the LME copper price

You can see how the argument develops on each of these points in the full report, available as a PDF download right here. We aim to please.

Antares Minerals (ANM.v) research report

George Topping (ex-Sprott and Blackmont and a solid track record) now works out of US sellside house Thomas Weisel. This week (Feb 16th to be exact) Topping published a report on Antares Minerals (ANM.v) and it's well worth reading, not least because he sticks his neck out and says that next week's resource update looks like putting the Haquira project over 10Bn lbs Cu.

Get your copy of his PDF report on Antares Minerals by clicking here.

Raymond James on gold

RayJames published a nice thinkpiece on gold yesterday (Feb 10th), well worth the time of those who invest in the stuff and particularly good for those that trade the gold miners.

Here's the link to pick up your PDF copy of the report. Free and easy, courtesy of your friendly neighbourhood corner of cyberspace, IKN (bows gracefully).



Update: Thanks to a quick reader who was kind enough to alert me, I've just noticed the link was wrong. It's now corrected. Thank you reader 'TI'.

Latinobarometro 2009, out now

Get your copy of the 115 page report on this link right here.

By the way, it's an 8.5 mega PDF download, so be patient.

Gold via child labour in South America

Lat week The US Department of Labor released this 194 page report (or check the press release here) compiled in conjunction with the International Bureau of Labor Affairs (ILAB) that lists 122 different goods from 58 countries that (and let's quote them):

"ILAB has reason to believe are produced by forced labor, child labor or both, in violation of international standards".

The report then goes on to list some of the fun things that children do for pin money and adults do because they're forced to in different parts of the world. LatAm countries listed are Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Dom Rep, Ecaudor, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay and Peru. Typical sectors are agro and service industries.

But a simple list of countries like that doesn't do justice to the real story and to fully understand the situation, the whole report needs a good read. Anybody who lives or visits LatAm knows that child labour is common. Also, most realize that the vast majority of child labour is voluntary and is often done under family supervision (e.g. covering the family's market stall for a shift and selling the fruit). After all, a 14 year old doing a morning newspaper round can be painted as something devilish by the right use of context and a devious turn of pen.

Also, the report does make it clear that many countries in South America are at the forefront in the battle against abusive forms of labour (e.g. coerced child labour and forced labour) as this section makes clear:

Some South American governments have been at the forefront of action against forced labor. Brazil and Peru have each approved national action plans against forced labor, while Bolivia has created a Transitional Plan for the Guaraní Communities that involves several national ministries and addresses forced labor in the Chaco region. In Argentina, there was rapid government response after a 2006 fire that killed six workers including four children involved in forced labor. The Government of Argentina and the City of Buenos Aires increased labor inspections, closed down clandestine workshops, and established a hotline and website to report forced and exploitive labor situations. In July 2009, the government’s National Institute for Industrial Technology, together with the Government of Buenos Aires, and La Alameda, a civil society organization working to end forced and child labor, inaugurated an innovative Demonstration Textile Center that highlights collaboration among local government, national government, civil society organizations, and religious groups to provide employment alternatives to workers rescued from forced labor situations.

However the report does mention things like child labour in the artisan gold mining sectors of countries such as Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru. Having been witness to this on a trip to the La Escondida mine in southern Peru once upon a time (and having read reports like this one that talk about the thousands of children exposed to the risk of mining in the Andean region) I'm happy that the USA is bringing a spotlight on some of the mining practices in the region that the world can do without. Finally, the report also mentions that Peru has forced labor working the gold mines; that's not funny at all.

Weekend read-commish thingy

• Get this totally free white paper by clicking through and requesting.
• Get wiser. And yes, it really is totally free to you.
• Make IKN a couple of bucks in commisison (as SAP say thank you to this website for promoting its brand)
• The end.

Receive Your Complimentary White Paper NOW! "Enterprise Risk Management: Keeping People, Assets, and the Environment Safe" Find out why operational risk management is a rising priority for monitoring disparate and disconnected efforts in safety, environmental compliance, and asset use to provide better enterprisewide control and management accountability. Making substantial efforts today will improve risk mitigation and create an enduring competitive advantage. Offered Free by: SAP Other Resources from: SAP Tags: more ...

The Bank Stress Test Report Official Results and Link

I persnally don't care, neither does the dude who sent me the link (thanks 'R') But I know some of you do out there, so by way of public service here's the link to the official Federal Reserve Board PDF report on the bank stress tests, as published a couple of minutes ago.

enjoy

Kroll on LatAm mining risk

It's now six weeks old but that's a very minor detail. If you are in any way interested in the LatAm mining sector you need to read the Kroll take on country risk in the major mining areas in the region. Here's the link to autodownload the PDF.

Aquiline (AQI.to): The Canadian pissing contest continues

Here's a follow up to last week's post on Aquiline (AQI.to) as we shed a further tear and pity poor, hard done by Aquiline (AQI.to) being used as a football by competing Canadian houses.

Well, not really. Pity is a real exaggeration as AQI's management are fully responsible for the current low cash "somebody please buy us" situation. However what is clear is that there are two factions playing financial games with AQI's stock right now.

• In the red corner we have a whole buncha suits that want to drive AQI's stock price down because they know the comapny needs to raise capital soon and they want to get in cheap (put simply they'd like to see AQI raise $10m by selling 6.66m shares at $1.50)

• In the blue corner we have those already bought in that want to see their holding rise in value and don't want to see the company dilute too heavily on the next financing round (put simply they'd like to see AQI raise $10m by selling 4m shares at $2.50).

What these two bickering parties have in common, of course, is that they want AQI to go up in value AFTER the next round of financing. That's when this humble corner of cyberspace will be looking more closely at AQI as an investment, by the way, but until then it's fun to watch the boyz and their games (fun for a wonk like me, anyway).

The latest round comes from the blue corner today. Cormark published a report on AQI that I've had chance to read. I generally agree with their take on the company and consider it a good report. I don't know where the devil you, kind and gentle reader, can get a copy of this member's only analysis. Not a clue.

Oh, by the way my e-mail address is otto.rock1 (AT) gmail (DOT) com if you ever feel like dropping me a line...about anything at all.

New NOBS report on Minefinders (MFN) available now

In the ongoing quest to make this humble corner of cyberspace pay for itself, here's the latest offer in the (glad to say increasingly popular) NOBS "no B.S." reports we do round here. The company in question this time is Minefinders (MFN) (MFL.to), operators of the newly commissioned 'Dolores' gold/silver mine in Mexico. In the seven page report you get my views on:

• company structure and financials
• production and profit expectations
• sensitivity to gold and silver spot prices
• political and social risk factors
• etc

You also get a 12 month forward price target and a conclusion section where I lay out my views on MFN as an investment, all in the usual straight-shooting NOBS style that praises when good and criticizes the bad. The price is the usual bargain U$10 via paypal to.....

otto.rock1 (AT) gmail.com

(change the (AT) to an @ sign)

.....and to make it easy you can order via this pre-paid button below (all the usual credit cards available). Once PayPal tells me you've paid, you'll get your copy by return mail. The usual drill, in other words.

So don't delay, get yours today. For just ten US dollars, which is less than the price of a trade commission, you'll know a whole heap more about MFN than the rest of them and give yourself the edge. You know it makes sense.

Fronteer (FRG) (FRG.to): A new NOBS report available

I mentioned in passing yesterday that there's a new $10 report available and was pleasantly surprised at the reaction, with 12 of you taking me up on the offer. So consider this post as a second, more blatant and final offer so that others might step up to the plate, get a copy of the report and make a giant stride towards owning a winning investment.

Order your copy of this bespoke report and you'll get to see why I like the company and why it's trading at a real bargain price right now. You get a breakdown of its financials, its operative background, all relevant facts and plenty of 'no BS' opinion, too. You also get a solid price target with a timeline. All you need to do is send U$10 to my PayPal account, which is.....

otto.rock1 (AT) gmail (DOT) com

.....and I'll send you your copy back by return. As mentioned before, U$10 is less than the price you pay for commission on a trade. It's a small price to pay to get wise on a quality mining company and in my considered opinion there's plenty of profit to be made by investing in FRG for those who take the current pricing levels, as the current risk/reward equation is very favourable indeed. To make things easier, here's a pre-set button you can use to put your order in. Via PayPal you can use all the usual credit cards, too. It's a quick, simple and totally safe transaction.

Disclosure: I recently went long FRG at U$2.25 and added at U$2.10, though it's not a big position...yet. However, apart from the recently taken long position I have no affiliation with FRG or anyone connected with it. In other words, I'm doing my independent thing as always.

The NOBS report on Chariot Resources

It's done, it's dusted and the new NOBS report on Chariot Resources (CHD.to) has now been sent to all the pre-order clients. It's not too late to get yours, and in my personal I think you should send me ten dollars immediately....but then I would say that. However, if you do you'll knows all you need to know about CHD.to in order to trade / invest in it sucessfully, written as usual in true 'No B.S.' style-)

If you're interested and want to know a bit more about why I chose this stock to cover, here's the link to read which also explains how to pay...it's really easy...all you need is a PayPal account or to be a credit card holder.

Send me money; you know it makes sense :-)

Chariot Resources (CHD.to): A new NOBS report for sale

This is a pitch to try and sell you a copy of a new NOBS report that features Chariot Resources (CHD.to). However, to try and confuse you, we begin by mentioning a different company to the real main event.

I've been watching the progress made by Antares Minerals (ANM.v) recently. Today it's trading at $1.68, and with around 54m shares out that means it has a market cap of C$90m. That's pretty good. For sure it has cash at bank ($21m at Oct31 '08) and for sure the recent resource report makes for very prospective reading. It's in Peru, drilling great copper returns, it's got smart management, it's deserving of its success so far. All in all the company is doing well and I wish them good luck and godspeed.

But ANM.v also made reflect just how some stocks become fashionable and how others are somewhat forgotten, even ones in the same sector and in the same country that are much further along in the development track and offer real value. And so I'm writing up a NOBS reprot on Peruvian junior copper play Chariot Resources (CHD.to) that will be delivered to anyone who stumps up the royal booty of ten US dollars between now and the Sunday evening delivery date. It's the same system as in previous offers, folks. All you need to do is use your PayPal account to send U$10 to...

otto.rock1 (at) gmail.com

....(replacing the (at) with an @) and your copy gets sent in plenty of time before the bell on Monday morning. If you prefer, you can use this U$10 pre-set button below (that takes all the usual credit cards, too). And to make it as straight a deal as possible, once again I declare that I do not own CHD.to and will not buy into it until anyone who orders a copy of the report has their own opportunity to decide on the investment (i.e. I won't go near the thing until next Wednesday mimino).

Your humble correspondent believes that CHD.to offers good value right now if (and I repeat "if") you think that copper is looking strong and will stay that way. The point here is the relative value of a market laggard compared to peer stocks grabbing the limelight. If ANM.v isn't a flash in the pan and the whole sector is about to enjoy a decent rebound, then companies such as CHD.to are the place to look, methinks.

So order your copy of this NOBS report on CHD.to today and be wise about the company for next week. To wrap up, here's a comparative chart of CHD and ANM to point the way.