Yes it's back again! Another round in the South American qualifiers is on us this weekend (with the second match in the pair next week) so IKN will be running its usual hypothetical bets on the matches (hypothetical cos I'm too bad at betting to risk real moolah). The last rounds back in March left us with our virtual pot with $141.25, so at least we have some shekels to throw. Here we go with this round's matchups. Prices as usual by UK bookmaker Ladbrokes
Uruguay 15/8 .... ... Draw 11/5. ..... Brazil 5/4
Bolivia 4/9 ....... ..Draw 11/4 ... ...Venezuela 6/1
Argentina 3/10........ ... Draw 10/3..... ..... Colombia 15/2
Paraguay 8/11...... Draw 9/4 ...... .....Chile 7/2
Peru 13/8 ..........Draw 11/5 .....Ecuador 11/8
Bolivia 4/9 ....... ..Draw 11/4 ... ...Venezuela 6/1
Argentina 3/10........ ... Draw 10/3..... ..... Colombia 15/2
Paraguay 8/11...... Draw 9/4 ...... .....Chile 7/2
Peru 13/8 ..........Draw 11/5 .....Ecuador 11/8
Now the analysis and selections
This is when the whole qualifiers regime down here gets deadly serious. There's now no margin for error for a lot of these sides if they want to bag the 27 or 28 point that guarantee passage to South Africa next year.
Uruguay versus Brazil will be a cracking match, as will Paraguay vs Chile. All four teams are capable of great football but I'm not backing any of them because there isn't a result, home draw or away, that would truly surprise me.
Venezuela offers value for the draw against Bolivia. Yes we all know what happened to Argentina in La Paz last time, but the Venezuelans have spent the last 10 days up there acclimatizing.
I don't think Argentina will beat Colombia, I think they will murder them, lacerat them, take them apart. Diego's team has looked both good and bad, but now's the time it has to click into top gear to ensure its place in the finals. Odds of 3/10 may look short, but I think they'll be looking great value at half time.
As for the other match, whipping boy Peru will lose to Ecuador and the 11/8 on offer is great value. Peru's fottballers are currently threatening to strike unless its governing body resigns and there's all sorts of shenanigans going on. Also, the match has only sold 7,000 tickets so far as the fans are totally disillusioned. They'll have to fill the stadium with last minute cheapseats but the atmosphere won't be a real home match-
So my bets are:
$10 on Bolivia/Venezuela to draw at 11/4
$80 on Argentina to win at 3/10
$51.25 on Ecuador to win at 11/8
And let's see how we get on.