South American World Cup Futbol: The results

So much for my prognostic powers (once again) as main bet Argentina got their tushes whupped in Ecuador. However the short priced treble we put fifty virtual dollars on (Colombia, Chile and Brazil to won) came good so we're left with a kitty of $196.98 for the next round way off in September. $196 sounds pretty good until you realize it's taken $300 to get this far, which just goes to prove what I've said all along this series...I suck at betting.

So until the next round, dudettes and dudes.

South America World Cup Futbol: Results and next round

Here we catch up on how we fared over the weekend matches and then look forward to round 14, playing midweek.

First the results. We backed Venezuela to sneak a draw in Bolivia and they went and won, so the small bet failed. As for the "sure thing" of Argentina against Colombia, the bet won all right but the match was tight and nervy and by no means the walk in the park I envisaged...but a win is a win. Finally Peru vs Ecuador went as expected. Peru is an amazingly poor team.

So we have $225.72 to play with in the round coming up midweek. Here are the matches in store:

Ecuador 9/4.............draw 9/4....... Argentina Evens

Colombia 1/3........draw 10/3................. Peru 7/1

Brazil 1/3 ................draw 10/3...........Paraguay 7/1

Chile 4/11..............draw 3/1 ...........Bolivia 15/2

Venezuela 2/1..................draw 9/4............... Uruguay 11/10

Now for the selections:
Argentina will have a tough time in the heights of Quito, but there comes a time when class will out. I watched the Peru/Ecuador match this afternoon and came away unimpressed with Ecuador event though they won it. I'm taking Argentina for three points and virtual classification for South Africa on Wednesday.

Surprise package Venezuela will be out for three points against a Uruguay with its backs firmly against the wall....home passion vs away grit, technique and tradition...tough to call. Brazil looked simply majestic against Uruguay over the weekend and are a good bet to win at home against Paraguay, even at short odds. Chile are also justifiably short odds to bag three points against Bolivia, too. Finally, no-hopers Peru are likely to give Colombia the chance to rack up three vital points.

So the bets this week are;

• A $50 treble, expecting Brazil (1/3), Chile (4/11) and Colombia (1/3) to justify their combined short home odds for a theoretical return of $121.21
  
• $100 on Argentina at evens to beat Ecuador, theoretical return of $200
  

And let's see how we get on.

South American World Cup Futbol Qualifiers

Yes it's back again! Another round in the South American qualifiers is on us this weekend (with the second match in the pair next week) so IKN will be running its usual hypothetical bets on the matches (hypothetical cos I'm too bad at betting to risk real moolah). The last rounds back in March left us with our virtual pot with $141.25, so at least we have some shekels to throw. Here we go with this round's matchups. Prices as usual by UK bookmaker Ladbrokes

Uruguay 15/8 .... ... Draw 11/5. ..... Brazil 5/4

Bolivia 4/9 ....... ..Draw 11/4 ... ...Venezuela 6/1

Argentina 3/10........ ... Draw 10/3..... ..... Colombia 15/2

Paraguay 8/11...... Draw 9/4 ...... .....Chile 7/2

Peru 13/8 ..........Draw 11/5 .....Ecuador 11/8

Now the analysis and selections
This is when the whole qualifiers regime down here gets deadly serious. There's now no margin for error for a lot of these sides if they want to bag the 27 or 28 point that guarantee passage to South Africa next year.

Uruguay versus Brazil will be a cracking match, as will Paraguay vs Chile. All four teams are capable of great football but I'm not backing any of them because there isn't a result, home draw or away, that would truly surprise me.

Venezuela offers value for the draw against Bolivia. Yes we all know what happened to Argentina in La Paz last time, but the Venezuelans have spent the last 10 days up there acclimatizing.

I don't think Argentina will beat Colombia, I think they will murder them, lacerat them, take them apart. Diego's team has looked both good and bad, but now's the time it has to click into top gear to ensure its place in the finals. Odds of 3/10 may look short, but I think they'll be looking great value at half time.

As for the other match, whipping boy Peru will lose to Ecuador and the 11/8 on offer is great value. Peru's fottballers are currently threatening to strike unless its governing body resigns and there's all sorts of shenanigans going on. Also, the match has only sold 7,000 tickets so far as the fans are totally disillusioned. They'll have to fill the stadium with last minute cheapseats but the atmosphere won't be a real home match-

So my bets are:
$10 on Bolivia/Venezuela to draw at 11/4
$80 on Argentina to win at 3/10
$51.25 on Ecuador to win at 11/8

And let's see how we get on.

Wrapping up the World Cup qualifiers

I didn't want to overdose the blog with soccer posts during the working week, so this is the belated post to wrap up what happened with the South American World Cup qualifiers on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Firstly the bets. True to form (and proving that Saturday's 2 from 2 really was the fluke I said it was) we flunked on both wagers. Chile held Uruguay to a 0-0 draw (I bet Chile) and Venezuela whupped Colombia 2-0 (I bet the draw) so the IKN virtual cash hoard is now down to $141 for the next round. And again, a reminder that thse bets are only theoretical and you'd be stone mad to follow me with real money on these (proved in style on Wednesday).

The real shocker was Argentina being hammered 6-1 by Bolivia (see all the goals here). Paraguay's point away from home at Ecuador puts them all but guaranteed for the finals. Brazil surprised nobody by beating Peru 3-0. Peru has managed to lose seven of its 12 matches now. Truly abysmal.

So the next two rounds are due June 6th to June 10th. Hasta la vista, baby.

Bolivia 6, Argentina 1: Here are all the goals

This is not an April Fool's joke.

Bolivia has just beaten Argentina 6-1 in La Paz and here's a 2 1/2 minute youtube with all the goals. To put it into context, this is the equal worst result ever for the Argentina national team. They lost 6-1 to Czechoslovakia back in 1958 at the Sweden World Cup finals. There was also the famous 5-0 defeat at home to Colombia in 1993. In other words, today is one to remember for soccer afficionados. Welcome to international level football management, Diego.

As for Evo Morales, he got on a plane from Qatar early and made a 15 hour flight back to Bolivia specifically so that he could get to the game on time. His reaction, according to this report, can't really be translated but it's still great. "¡Que goleada, papá!"

South American World Cup Futbol Qualifiers: Results and next round picks

Wow, by sheer luck and benign footballing Gods smiling down sweetly, we actually hit two winners out of two this weekend. Thanks to Ecuador sharing the points with Brazil and Chile whupping Peru's tush, Otto's two virtual bets both won and the virtual stack of money now stands at a virtual $281.25. As for you, Boz, "sigue participando" as they say down this way :-)

So the big question is, "How to blow the cash on the midweek fixtures?" Here we go with the Tuesday / Wednesday matches, with prices again supplied by Ladbrokes.

Venezuela 11/8.......... Draw 11/5............. Colombia 8/5

Bolivia 9/2 ..............Draw 5/2........ Argentina 8/15

Ecuador 11/8 ...........Draw 11/5.......... Paraguay 8/5

Chile 11/10 ...........Draw 11/5 ........Uruguay 2/1

Brazil 1/7.......... Draw 5/1 ..........Peru 11/1

Comments and picks: Brazil is unbettable at 1/7, so that match doesn't interest us much. There are some very tough matches to call this fixture, in fact. Bolivia are always three times stronger at home than away thanks to playing at altitude (3,800masl approx) in La Paz. This means that Argentina, good as the team is, is no lock for the points. Ecuador vs Paraguay; I really have no idea on that one so I'm leaving it be.

The best spectacle is likely to be Chile vs Uruguay, a real full-on battle in the making. Uruguay played some great football to beat Paraguay 2-0 over the weekend. Chile has just bagged three points away from home at the embarrassing Peru and has a big home advantage in Santiago. It also has Marcelo Bielsa as the brainpower, a man who will have a whole different strategy planned for the match with the Garruas. So even though Uruguay were very impressive I'm going to pick Chile at 11/10 to beat Uruguay.

For my other pick, a draw is likely in the Venezuela / Colombia matchup and 11/5 looks good to me. Neither team is great and the home advantage should let the slightly weaker Venezuela hold onto a point. That's the plan, anyway. What could possibly go wrong? So my bets are:

$100 on Chile @ 11/10 (theoretical return $210)
$40 on Venezuela Colombia to draw @ 11/5 (theoretical return $128)

Which leaves $141.25 in the cash pot to fight another day. And let's see how we get on.

South American World Cup Futbol Qualifiers

Yay!! South America lives and breathes futbol this weekend, as the World Cup qualifiers are back after their long break. All eyes will be on Maradona's first serious match in charge of the national team versus Venezuela, but there's plenty more goodstuff on offer.

Longer-term readers of this humble corner of cyberspace may remember that Otto gave himself a $100 virtual pool of cash to bet on the first phases of the tourney last year...and promptly lost it all. So I awarded myself another hundred virtual dollars...and lost them all again. So now you are clear that I TOTALLY SUCK AT SPORTS BETTING, here are the matchups and prices (supplied by UK bookmaker Ladbrokes). I'm risking fate by adding another hundred to my imaginary bankroll and I'm going to try and pick a value bet or two (be clear that I don't bet for real...I really, truly suck at this and don't waste my own cash). Here we go!

Uruguay 5/4.......Draw 9/4.......Paraguay 9/4

Argentina 1/6 ..........Draw 6/1......... Venezuela 14/1

Ecuador 16/5 ........ Draw 9/4 ............. Brazil 8/11

Colombia 8/15 ....... Draw 11/4............ Bolivia 11/2

Peru 13/8 ............Draw 23/10........ Chile 13/8

Comments: Argentina will win but the price is way too short to offer value. Uru vs Para is two good teams and a lot in play and imho way too tough to call. Colombia has been in bad form, but Bolivia away from home is a weak team too, so anything could happen in that match.

Therefore I'm going to concentrate my cash on the other two matches. Ecuador and Brazil is fancy for a draw at 9/4, basically the weaker Ecuador needs a win and the stronger Brazil doesn't and will settle for a point away from home. As for the other match, Chile at 13/8 looks a very big price to me and the best value of the weekend. Peru is a truly mediocre national side, but this time around Chile has serious designs on claiming a place at the finals in South Africa next year. Marcelo Bielsa has got the team working well and there's new, quality young blood, too.

So my bets are:

$70 on Chile to win @ 13/8 (theoretical return $183.75)
$30 on Ecuador and Brazil to draw @ 9/4 (theoretical return $97.50)

And let's see how we get on.

UPDATE: Argentina 4, Venezuela 0. And oh my stars, this guy is good:

Confirmed: 19% of Peruvians are officially and certifiably insane

Chile player Orellana, about 0.7 seconds after scoring Chile's winning goal against
Argentina last night....have a guess what word he's about to scream?

The following two survey results cannot possibly be a coincidence:

1) President Twobreakfasts García has a job approval rating of 19%

2) 19% of Peruvians think their national football team can make it to the World Cup finals in 2010.

Nineteen percent! In the world they call "bleedin' reality, mate", both of those percentages should be stuck at zero. This can only mean that if you ever walk round Lima the chances are that 19% of the people you meet will be saying "wibble wibble" a lot and having long conversations with dogs and their own shoelaces and things like that.

Be clear; Peru cannot and will not make it to the Finals and anyone who understands the offside law can see that one. Meanwhile, Otto proved again last night that he totally sucks at soccer betting, as none of his three selections came in and his bankroll is back to zip nada nothing. At least Otto isn't mad enough to actually bet real money on his own selections......

South America World Cup futbol Qualifiers: results and next round

Yep, this is "that goal"

Hey, we actually made a profit this time! If you check back at the weekend selections right here you'll see we missed on Argentina-Uruguay draw (Argentina won 2-1), but the main bet came in, Ecuador beating Chile 1-0 (though it could have been 5, as Ecuador was all over the tiring Chile in the last 20 minutes).

So all this means Otto has $118 to throw at the next round (and edged out boz who ended at $115...you still made a profit though, boz :-), and that round is coming up in just 2 or 3 days' time in the midweek fixtures. So without further ado let's see what there is on offer right now, with prices as always from Skybet dot com.

Bolivia 15/8........... draw 9/4 .........Uruguay 5/4
Chile 16/5 ...............draw 9/4......... Argentina 4/5
Brazil 3/10 ..............draw 7/2........... Colombia 8/1
Paraguay 4/9....... draw 11/4............... Peru 6/1
Venezuela 5/4........ draw 11/5 .........Ecuador 15/8

Now my selections

Argentina is a great bet to win away. Due to disciplinary suspensions Chile will be missing three of their key players on Wednesday, and that's enough for me to say Argentina can go to Santiago and bring back three points. There are also two "lambs to slaughter" match-ups this round, with Brazil and Paraguay looking very good for home wins at short odds. I also think Bolivia is value at 15/8 against Uruguay; Bolivia has played well in its last two matches and again has its massive home advantage; ever tried running around for 90 minures at 12,000+ feet above sea level without three months of practice?

So Otto's bets are:

$50 win Argentina at 4/5 for a possible return of $90
$40 win double, Brazil (3/10) and Paraguay (4/9) for a possible return of $75.11
$28 win Bolivia at 15/8 for a possible return of $80.50

And let's see how we get on.

PS: If you want to bet real money on Argentina do it now. I think the bookmakers are asleep tonight and when they realize Chile is a weakened team for Wednesday the Argentina odds will shorten.

South America World Cup futbol Qualifiers: results

Allow me to repeat, one more time and for the record; I suck at betting.

My all or nothing bet was to double Chile to beat Colombia and then the mighty Brazil at home to beat the region's minnows, Bolivia. Sure enough Chile obliged in some style (4-0 winners) but greed got the better of me and I just had to add Brazil at 1/9 odds to put a bit of extra pzazz to the winnings. As I wrote Monday;

"The odds (for Brazil) are tiny, of course, but this is as close to an absolute certainty as is possible in futbol."

Stupid, stupid, stupid. Bolivia, playing with just 10 men for most of the second half, put on a magnificent defensive game and the result stayed at 0-0. Otto is now penniless for the October 11th next round, so I might just do myself a helicopter Ben and award myself another $100 of play money. Or i might not. For sure I'm better at stocks than futbol. But a deserved round of applause for the Bolivian team...great result, guys. Kudos.

South America World Cup futbol Qualifiers: results and next round

First, the result from the weekend's matches, and then the bets for the midweek round eight.

Yet again I prove to the world that I suck at betting. My bets were:

$45.58 on Chile to win (3/1)
$15 on Uruguay to win (11/4)

As for the results, Uruguay won 1-0 and made me money, but Brazil whupped Chile's trasero 3-0 and so I only get paid on my minor bet. This leaves me just $56.25 from my original $100 bankroll (a couple of rounds ago) to play with. Safe to say the bookmakers are not exactly tremblin' with fear about this series of posts.

But hope springs eternal, and here are the round 8 matches that are played tomorrow. Underneath my selections. Prices come from skybet dot com (for those not used to the UK oddsmaking system see the bottom of the previous post here)

Paraguay 4/11.... draw 3/1.... Venezuela 8/1
Brazil 1/9 ....draw 11/2.... Bolivia 20/1
Peru 9/2.... draw 5/2.... Argentina 4/7
Uruguay 8/15.... draw 12/5 ....Ecuador 11/2
Chile 5/6 ....draw 9/4 ....Colombia 3/1

The one compelling bet here is Chile at 5/6. Sure they lost at home over the weekend, but Brazil as a team finally decided to wake up, and when that happens they can make the best team in the world look ordinary. Chile is a good team, be sure about that. Also, Colombia haven't impressed much. I'm going to make this into a win double and add Brazil to win at 1/9. The odds are tiny, of course, but this is as close to an absolute certainty as is possible in futbol. Therefore the bet is:

$56.25 win double on Chile 5/6 and Brazil 1/9

For what it's worth, if the bet comes in my hypothetical bankroll will stand at $114.58.

Game on!

South America World Cup futbol Qualifiers

Yep, it's time for another round in South America's religion, and while over in Europe you have such fascinating encounters as Andorra vs England, or Liechtenstein vs Germany (away wins, anybody?), the real action takes place this side of the big pond.

With my fictitious $100 bankroll standing at a lousy $60.58 after the last round back in June (ie way back before you knew who Usain Bolt was), I need to score a winning weekend to get back on track. So here are the five matches scheduled, with prices for the home win, draw or away win supplied by skybet dot com*:

Argentina (1/3) ........ draw (10/3)... Paraguay (15/2)
Ecuador (8/15) ...draw (5/2)..... Bolivia (5/1)
Colombia (10/11)...... draw (9/4) ......Uruguay (11/4)
Peru (4/5)................ draw (11/4)....Venezuela (3/1)
Chile (3/1) .........draw (9/4) ..... Brazil (4/5)

So now the bets:

As usual, the trick is to choose the best value and not try to guess all five matches correctly. Argentina looks good to beat Paraguay at home, but the price is prohibitive. Ecuador hasn't been scoring many goals, so I'm going to avoid their match against Bolivia for lack of value.

Uruguay looks a good price against Colombia. The Colombians haven't impressed much so far even though they have racked up 10 points in and sit in the qualifying zone, and even with home advantage I'll take the improving Uruguay to land the odds here.

Peru Venezuela is another too tough to call, but I'm going to make my main bet Chile to beat Brazil. This Brazil side is not firing on all cylinders yet, and any team has a tough time travelling to Chile. Marcelo Bielsa's team has pulled out excellent victories away at Bolivia and Venezuela, and will be all out looking for the three points at home to put them in the frame for the World Cup Finals. So the 3/1 price offered looks very good value to me.

Therefore, my hypothetical bankroll is being thrown at two bets:

$45.58 on Chile to win (3/1)
$15 on Uruguay to win (11/4)

And let's see how we get on.

*as a reminder, let's use the Argentina vs Paraguay game to show how the betting price system works. Argentina is 1/3 favourite, which mean that if you bet $3 you win $1 and get a total return of $4. The draw (10/3) pays a total return of $13 for a $3 stake. Paraguay to win (15/2) would pay $17 for a $2 stake.

Or if you prefer, for a $10 level stake:
Argentina win pays $13.33
the draw pays $43.33
Paraguay win pays $85