South America World Cup futbol Qualifiers

Yep, it's time for another round in South America's religion, and while over in Europe you have such fascinating encounters as Andorra vs England, or Liechtenstein vs Germany (away wins, anybody?), the real action takes place this side of the big pond.

With my fictitious $100 bankroll standing at a lousy $60.58 after the last round back in June (ie way back before you knew who Usain Bolt was), I need to score a winning weekend to get back on track. So here are the five matches scheduled, with prices for the home win, draw or away win supplied by skybet dot com*:

Argentina (1/3) ........ draw (10/3)... Paraguay (15/2)
Ecuador (8/15) ...draw (5/2)..... Bolivia (5/1)
Colombia (10/11)...... draw (9/4) ......Uruguay (11/4)
Peru (4/5)................ draw (11/4)....Venezuela (3/1)
Chile (3/1) .........draw (9/4) ..... Brazil (4/5)

So now the bets:

As usual, the trick is to choose the best value and not try to guess all five matches correctly. Argentina looks good to beat Paraguay at home, but the price is prohibitive. Ecuador hasn't been scoring many goals, so I'm going to avoid their match against Bolivia for lack of value.

Uruguay looks a good price against Colombia. The Colombians haven't impressed much so far even though they have racked up 10 points in and sit in the qualifying zone, and even with home advantage I'll take the improving Uruguay to land the odds here.

Peru Venezuela is another too tough to call, but I'm going to make my main bet Chile to beat Brazil. This Brazil side is not firing on all cylinders yet, and any team has a tough time travelling to Chile. Marcelo Bielsa's team has pulled out excellent victories away at Bolivia and Venezuela, and will be all out looking for the three points at home to put them in the frame for the World Cup Finals. So the 3/1 price offered looks very good value to me.

Therefore, my hypothetical bankroll is being thrown at two bets:

$45.58 on Chile to win (3/1)
$15 on Uruguay to win (11/4)

And let's see how we get on.

*as a reminder, let's use the Argentina vs Paraguay game to show how the betting price system works. Argentina is 1/3 favourite, which mean that if you bet $3 you win $1 and get a total return of $4. The draw (10/3) pays a total return of $13 for a $3 stake. Paraguay to win (15/2) would pay $17 for a $2 stake.

Or if you prefer, for a $10 level stake:
Argentina win pays $13.33
the draw pays $43.33
Paraguay win pays $85