Monday, September 29, 2008

Copper goes under $3

Well, I can't say it's a surprise. On the one hand it validates my analysis to have bailed when I did, but on the other it's total BS. Anyone reading the morning wires would have seen a sudden rush to condemn from all analysts in some kind of concerted chicken little cry. If you remember that these are the same people that have called the market so very badly this year, it just shows how stupid investors are (yep, that includes me...and you). No surprise that the rest of the BM complex is down, too. Zinc back at it's bottom of $0.76/lb and lead dumping a mere 6% are amongst the damaged goods on offer.

Taking a look at a futures chart....

Copper orange line and reaches to Sept 2013. Oil white line and reaches to 2017.
Click to enlarge

........the difference between the uncertain demand for copper (well, according to the idiots who couldn't analyze their way out of a paper bag, anyway) and the perceived strength in crude. So explain to me one more time how those cars that will guzzle all that oil in those new cars in China get built without copper? Or how the factories that will get built to build those cars get built without copper? Or the houses of the workers who will work in the factory that (etc etc ).

But it's a little academic right now; we have to get over the panic merchants and their market swinging in the short-term. I did say earlier in the year that if copper spent much time below $3 I'd be shock'n'awed about it. It's now showtime.