Argentina and the Call to Default

Eduardo Duhalde (for it is he)

If you read El Porteño's excellent post yesterday that explains the key present role of Eduardo Duhalde in Argentine politics, you'll understand that what follows is a very significant move towards Argentina defaulting in 2009 or 2010. If you haven't read it yet, here's the link again. You'll see just how important Duhalde is right now.

Now here's the crunch: Duhalde gave an interview on Argentine radio this morning and basically said that if all the rest of the world were in financial trouble and were defaulting on loans, they'd be stupid to pay up. Remember this is the most powerful man in Argentine politics outside of the Kirchner block and many expect the Duhalde-led pact to make a very strong showing in the 2009 end of year elections. Do not take Duhalde or his words today lightly; this is a serious call for Argentine default.

Here are some direct quotes from this morning's interview put through the Ottotrans™:

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"It's not that simple, this bill is not ours to pay. Latin America has to rebel like Africa and Asia. We have nothing to do with this. There's no reason why we should be hurt by this."

"The government does what it can (but) there is no deep analysis about what is happening."

"If the world is bankrupt, let's put our debt in with the others and see what happens later. What we have to do is take care and look after what is left of our reserves."

"It's very difficult and I don't think that much more can be done. The government has to think seriously in what I've said; this bill isn't ours to pay. This crisis was born in the USA, it hurts all of us and they have the chance to print money and save their own people. We don't have that opportunity.

"(During the Kirchner government) unfortunately they paid the U$9Bn dollars in IMF debt. It was announced in such a triumphant way that it was like Fidel Castro descending from the Sierra Maestra, when in fact it was stupid."

"That they now want to pay the Paris Club debt of other unnecessary highlights the fact that in this government there is no deep analysis about what is happening and what must be done."

UPDATE: Dear Mr. Dowsett, learn Spanish.

From a Porteño viewpoint: Macri

It's been a long time, August in fact, since we had one of these. But better late than never, I suppose. The Porteño (resident of Buenos Aires city) in question happens to be a very close friend and we're always passing mails and commenting between ourselves.

So when Porteño (we'll use that moniker) saw the Mauricio Macri video in the preceding post this morning he sent me a mail with his views on Macri and entourage that's well worth putting through the Ottotrans™ and sharing on the blog (permission has been granted). As mentioned already today, Macri is one of these "love him or hate him" characters down there. Enjoy.

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Lord, how these people make me angry. I hate him (Macri). I'd even say that I hate him more than Menem. At least Carlos had charisma. This guy has less charisma than a Korean's fringe (Ottonote; translated directly just for fun. All he's trying to say in a true Porteño tone is that Macri has no personality), he's more boring than De La Rua*. Macri is a total product of political marketing. With some small discourse and big-spending campaign he can even position his friend De Narváez** as a political candidate. The mainstream media fully support him; Clarín, La Nación, TN are always promoting Mauricio Macri and Francisco de Narváez.

Speaking of De Narváez, five or six years ago he bought Juan Perón's personal library and still hasn't read one of the books. He said it himself, no kidding.

But back to Mauricio: I still don't understand how nobody realizes that the guy is a packaged product. But he's also a dangerous package. Up to now all that he's done is:

• Raised Buenos Aires property taxes an average of 300%
• Increased road tolls
• Increased the number of parking meters and their charges
• Attempted to cut gross salaries.
• Added stamp duty to house sales
• Added tax to credit cards
• Sold construction materials to out-of-city centre residential projects (known as "countrys")
• Stopped education grants and scholarships
• Cut health spending
• Destroyed the Colon Opera House
• Created a disaster in the hospitals system
• Sacked local gov't people that protest and ignored the corrupt
• His government functionaries are resigning en masse
• His execution of the city budget plans is the worst in 30 years

The saddest thing of all is that he appears in the media six hours a day transmitting an image of direction and management. I'm telling you that even Telerman (Ottonote, the previous mayor of Buenos Aires, known for his relaxed attitude) did more than him. At least Telerman fixed pavements and gave out domestic refuse containers without raising taxes.

I could go on and on about this idiot but I'd get boring. The Duhalde/Macri/De Narvaez association scares me, frankly, but it looks like it's going to be the future.

Firma y sello, El Porteño

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*President at the time of the 2001 crisis. Famous for being dust dry.

**Explanation from Porteño himself: "Francisco de Narváez is a businessman who made his fortune in the 1990s. After the 2002 crisis he started in politics with a discourse based on crime/security. In the same way as Mauricio he spends a lot of money on propaganda and has smart people as political advisors. His slogan is very good; "Knowledge brings safety". Thus he pushes his "grand project, the "safety map". His speeches are aimed at the typical scared middle class."

The Queen of Argentine Politics isn't its President

Macri being all serious and politico

Mauricio Macri is Mayor of the city of Buenos Aires. In the patchwork quilt* that is Argentine politics he's regarded as a right-wing defender of the middle classes and his position is one of "love him or hate him" in the city and the wider country.

But along with all the baggage he brings (he's son of a rich magnate, he was president of futbol club Boca Jrs for a long time, he was kidnapped when young and held to ransom etc) he's also convinced himself along the way that he can sing, even taking professional lessons back in 2007 to top up his.....errr...ability.

And now we get to the crunch. At his recent 50th birthday party, Macri got up on stage to perform "Somebody To Love" by his favourite band, Queen. So sit back, relax and treat yourself to two minutes and forty seconds of the Mayor of one of the largest cities in the world and early frontrunner as the next President doing his very own Freddie Mercury impression.

*as mentioned previously, it's very difficult to use classic left-right labels in Argentina mainly due to its strange Peronist history. The definition above is a rough approximiation and no more.