Feliz Navidad from IKN and Trend&Value

A thousand thankyous to Trend&Value for introducing me to this beautiful, wonderful, sublime and deeply moving Christmas song/video by Robert Earl Keene. I hope you enjoy it, too.

Merry Christmas to you all. Especially Lucas.

The US Dollar: Some smarts from Trend&Value

After musing on the USD for a couple of weeks in the intro section of The IKN Weekly, your humble correspondent came to the definitive conclusion that he doesn't have a freakin' clue about the technical analysis aspects of the greenback right now.

But fortunately, help is at hand! Somebody much smarter in the ways of the chart is Lucas over at Trend&Value and on reading my laments he sent me a chart and a comment or two this morning that I thought was pretty intelligent. I've been given permission to reproduce here, so let's hand it over to Lucas.

Just read your last weekly.

Regarding the Dollar, it seems to me that we have all been regarding particular price levels as overly important in terms of key supports (and I have been more guilty as most in this). It has been my contention that the last couple years will be looked back upon as a major bottom for the Dollar. Time will tell. But, if you look back to major historical turns in the currency markets, you find that the bottoming process takes a good deal of time, and back and forth trading, before a truly directional trend develops.

As for the recent action, the continued slippage has been a frustration, to be sure, but the daily chart of UUP (attached) shows a potentially very bullish 'declining wedge' formation. Additionally several of the technical indicators are looking rather positive. (RSI divergence on the top panel, CMF divergence on the first bottom panel -- this indicates accumulation).

A retest of 72 on the index is not out of the question, but my feeling is that the next major surprise will be to the upside.

The weekend's best posts

The best commentary on the Obama Nobel? Here at Trend and Value, where Lucas wraps it all up in just 40 words.

The best post on gold in many moons? Here at Cassandra, and make sure you read the comment left by David Pearson underneath the entry. His position is mine, almost to a tee.

Trend and Value says SPX is going down

There aren't many chartists I take seriously but Lucas most definitely is one of them. Check out this post and the chart here that he put together today.

FCX and Trend&Value

Lucas at Trend&Value has been doing a good job of laying out the trade on Freeport McMoRan (FCX) in his newsletter recently. So on the blog yesterday he gave a quick resumé of his ongoing analysis, put up the charts and gives his target, too (for the record, plenty of money to be made between now and the forecast). Go take a look.

Another Free Trend&Value Letter (but it's your last chance)

The response for this free copy of Lucas's Trend&Value Letter has been very good, with over 100 downloads of the letter already made. So I've managed to bully Lucas into offering another copy of his report, but this one is the last freebie, folks. The whole idea is to allow you to see the high quality of analysis on offer and get you to give his service a trial month. It really is a bargain, as you get a letter every weekday at just U$28 per month (or less than a buck fifty per letter). I'm happy to say that Lucas has reported a few new signups this week, so don't be slow in joining the fun. For more details, go over to Lucas's blog (linked here) to find out how to sign up.

Meanwhile, click right here for your complimentary copy of the latest Trend And Value Letter, dated April 11th 2009. As well as a rundown on currencies there's a focus on Canada (stocks, currency and macro indicators). As usual, sharp insight on offer. Please be clear that I don't get any commission and any sort of kickback for driving clients or potential clients his way; all I get from this is the reflected glory of pointing out to a great service to investors. Thank you for your attention.

Free for you: Today's Trend & Value Report from Lucas

The Trend and Value Letter is the service run by Lucas of the same-named blog. It's an impressive daily service that gets sent straight to your mailbox five days a week. The price is also way too cheap for the frequency and quality of analysis on offer (remember, this is the guy who called the S&P bottom to within two points months before it happened). As well as the indices, Lucas is particularly strong on currencies and precious metals having previously been a precious metals broker before moving to independent analysis services.

Therefore it's with great pleasure (and prior permission) that IKN offers today's Trend&Value letter as a sample of Lucas's wares. Just click here to download your copy and find out how just how good the guy is at this analysis game. And while reading this free sample of today's report (really, it's today's dated April 9th and everything) reflect that the monthly fee for this letter is just U$28, which means the typical production of 20 letters per month will cost you just U$1.40 a copy (for more details on that, check Lucas's blog on this link and mail him).

So I hope you check out the free copy on the above link (and just to make sure it's on this link too). And by way of disclosure, I get no commission or anything of the sort if you decide that Lucas's letter is for you and sign on for a trial month. All I want to do is to make you aware of the excellent service that's on offer. Thank you for your attention.

Trend and Value Report: An impressive call

Back on November 8th 2008 the S&P stood at 930.99.

On that date Lucas at Trend and Value posted this long (for him anyway) but informative post in which he called the S&P at 666 in 2009. Here we are with the S&P at 668 and dropping into the bell. Big kudos Lucas, that was one helluva call.

I'm fussy about who I link to on this blog. Trend and Value has long since proven to me that it is a high quality resource for market intelligence. Make it part of your reading list, too.

UPDATE: The S&P pinged to 683 at the bell on late buying. Takes nothing away from Lucas's superlative forecast. In fact if 668 ends up as being the bottom of the bottom it just makes it even better.

Chart of the day is.........

.........spot gold, the kitco 72h chart.

This chart comes with kudos for Lucas over at Trend & Value. We get to chat a bit late in the evenings, and this month he's been adamant that Gold was going to $960.

It stalled and moved back to $900. I said "Hey, gold's looking weak". He said "Nah, it's going to $960."

It reached $950 in style then returned to the $930 range. I said "Hey, that looks like all for now". He said, "It's still going to $960, you watch."

So today you get your shout out, Lucas. VERY nice call, dude, I was way wrong and you were way right. now let's see if the next part of your forecast pans out with the same accuracy. As for others reading this, you'd be doing a smart thing by putting his free blog on your radar (he writes regularly). Maybe even getting his very reasonable five-days-a-week morning newsletter. I get it.

Trend and Value Report get queasy

Totally recommended post over at Trend&Value today, with Lucas noting that his experiment with Padovan numbers seems to be working (better than his forex calls)

He's also coined a very cool phrase, "Queasy Money". Personally I think he should copyright that sucka before some other blog tries to claim originality. Here's the link; a required visit for us financial wonks.

Readables

Biiwii Gary on gold stocks today. If you haven't read this already, go now. Excellent insight.

Paul Krugman on real balance effects. When a Nobel prizewinner takes time to explain these normally out-of-reach concepts to us mortals, take time to read it. This is the goodstuff and good map-marking for next year.

The Economist on Peru. Every now and again, the mediocre LatAm coverage in The Economist is enlightened by a decent piece of script. It happened today. This is a good snapshot of Peru.

Trend and Value on the Aussie dollar. Look, this guy knows his stuff when it comes to trading currencies, and all of a sudden the OzDollar (or pound or Peso, or waddeva they have over there) has lit his fire. There are three or four recent posts on the AUD to check out. So do so.

Trend and Value does the impossible.....

Lucas dislocates his shoulder

....it makes the bonds market entertaining and funny.

Go have a read of Lucas's latest post linked right here on the bonds market over at his site, 'Trend And Value'. It's intelligent comment but (and I dunno how he did it) more importantly he's made one of the world's driest subjects seriously funny.

Recommended to everyone, interested in bonds or not. 100% right about Minyanville, Lucas.

UPDATE: Lucas now also offers excellent impersonations of Radiohead's Thom Yorke.