Ain't no joking with the press for a lefty

I started a joke
That started the whole world crying
But I didn't see
That the joke was on me
I Started a Joke, The Bee Gees, 1968

Yesterday, Hugo Chavez was in Brazil to meet with Yoda and talk entry to Mercosur for Venezuela. All went swimmingly and the two pals did their country things. Then came the press conference, which at one point had a small incident that AFP reported in the following way (translated):

In a relaxed atmosphere, Chávez joked with Lula by saying that Venezuela was going through a phase of "nationalizations, except for Brazilian companies (in Venezuela)" which caused generalized laughter at the meeting.

However,

• Argentine press were also present.
• Argentine press that don't like Chávez
• And Argentina is just 31 days away from the polls in its hotly contested senate elections

Yep, the anti-Kirchner bizmedia and MSM in Buenos Aires who had watched Chávez recently nationalize the Techint-owned steel mill in Venezuela (and pay a suitable price for the asset, it must be pointed out) opened up with all barrels blazing on Chávez and the way that this dictator friend of the Kirchners was about to take over every Argentine asset in Venezuela and how, of course, Klishtina would start down the same path as soon as the key elections next month were over.....if Argentina lets her.

Once it got to the point of the Argentine industrial union (the biz bigwigs association there) calling for a bar on Venezuela as a Mercosur partner, Klishtina got on the phone to Chávez and asked him about his comments that seem to "involve certain discrimination". It was only at that point that Hugo realized what he'd done (i.e. had the temerity to crack a joke and treat those present as adults...big mistake when it comes to reporters in South America) and so this afternooon he got his diplo corps to issue a formal communicado that officially tells in official language just how much Venezuela respects Argentina and they'd never do anything to piss them off and it was all a smear campaign by certain sectors of the press etc etc read it here if you like...letterheaded paper and everything.

Moral of the story: Don't crack jokes in the presence of dumbasses with recording equipment, teeline skills and editors with agendas.

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Trading Post (Messi edition)

In just under 15 minutes time the biggest match of the year kicks off in Rome with Barcelona taking on Manchester United in the Champion's League final. I, along with 80% of the continent, will be cheering on Barsa and hoping Lionel Messi shows that Portuguese git exactly who da man.

Candente (DNT.to) up 15% at C$0.42 and also doing great business on the Lima exchange. The time is nigh for the spinoff.

Vena Resources (VEM.to) down a penny at $0.32 in Canada but also going great guns in Lima with 168,000 shares traded. When this thing suddenly pops 20% or 30% I'll be the one with the smartalec grin on his face going "toldya so toldya so".

Guyana Gold up 1.5% at $3.85 and the beat goes on. This thing has been unstoppable in the last couple of weeks. Templeton happy. Sprott happy. Otto happy.

Rocmec (RMI.v) up 14.3% at 8c. I've mentioned this microdot stock on the blog a few times and it's still on my radar. It's been bouncing around in the 7c to 9c range in the last few weeks but I note some interesting insider buying activity recently, with headhoncho Brisebois buying into the company's own financing placement to the tune of 100,000 units. Not the worst place for some über-risk capital that's for sure, but I couldn't personally get comfy and buy until I know more about this thermal fragmentation technology thingy. It's intruiging and if they ever give me the chance I'd like to check it out in situ. Waddya say, Stella?

UPDATE: Half-time, Barcelona 1, Man Utd 0 and things going well so far. Here's a great shot of Messi in full flow during the first half.
UPDATE 2: And this is Messi about two seconds after scoring Barsa's second (a header!). It's all over, 2-0 Messi whups world and the footballing gods smile upon us.

Paraguay update

Nadya Suleman, last seen heading for Asuncion

Fernando Lugo, South America's most fecund head of state, said last weekend that "only God is perfect" in relation to his ever growing paternity issues which is now at three kids and rumoured to be heading to seven. However it's also noticeable how all the scandal has actually made him more popular in machoman Paraguay where virility seemingly scores more points with the masses than maintaining vows of chastity. This has clearly ticked off the establishment opposition in the still powerful Colorado Party that must have been drooling over a resignation or a coup for a while back there. Now that the good ship Lugo is sailing through the paternity hoo-hah in fine style, frustration is beginnning to show as today ex-President Lino Oviedo called Lugo "indignant and immoral". He also went on to say:

"We have been ignored by him (Lugo) and he has to understand that the time of the single leader is over. A person of this immoral calibre cannot be spoken to....He doesn't accept the agenda of others but makes others accept his. He has to understand the (dictator and Ex President Alfredo) Stroessner is dead, that this man should understand that this is no longer inside democracy."

So by way of a bit of background to Oviedo's declarations today, let's try and give you a bit of equal context about Oviedo calling Lugo "immoral and indignant".

Example one: Madonna is scandalized by the fact that Britney Spears isn't a virgin.

Example two: Barry Bonds horrified by stories that track&field athletes take performance enhancing drugs.

Example three: Dick Cheney shocked about the way The Hawaiian might fudge an issue or two about foreign policy.

I could go on, but you should have the picture by now.

Venezuelan finances on my mind

I was sent the report linked here last night by a friend and the article cannot be recommended highly enough. Written by Juan Carlos Boué and dated May 4th 2009, it is all about the Venezuelan oil industry and lays to rest the old argument about just how much oil is produced by PDVSA.

Really, it does. As well as being a solid argument, it is also rigorously academic (but fortunately also readable by the layman). It looks into the recent history of oil production reporting in Venezuela and shows exactly how the foreign secondary bodies deliberately underestimate Venezuela's oil production numbers. It also suggests a couple of reasons as to why...interesting stuff.

At the end of the show, Boué nails down the last five months of numbers and shows that, once internal demand figures are factored in, Venezuela's oil production is running at around 3.1m barrels per day. This is just where PDVSA says it is and importantly it's demonstrated without relying on company figures because detractors and know-nothings are always quick to shout 'propaganda' at PDVSA's reported numbers. Three-point-one-million is, of course, a mile away from the 2.35m barrels that is quoted by English speaking media and gleaned from bodies such as the IEA that are shown by Boué to use simple statistical manipulation in their underestimations. However it's always the lower IEA figures that are picked up by the rabid Anti-Chávez brigade as they wail how PDVSA is going to hell in a handbasket (amazingly, the same song is sung every year....every year they're proved wrong and every year they say "yeah, but you wait til next year!"). Strange that, innit?

It got me thinking about the importance of oil to Venezuela, too. To put into context (for the miningheads that read this page anyway), try this: Consider all the gold that's underground in the Bolivar state region of Venezuela, including all the gold underground at Las Cristinas, Brisas, the Chocos and all the other concessions parcelled off and owned by Rusoro and all the other smaller players down there. Now dig up all that gold, process it and sell it all at once. The revenues from that gold would be the revenues from six months or so of Venezuelan oil production, and at current rates of extraction there's enough oil to last for the next 200 years.

Ever wondered why Chávez cares more about oil than he does about gold?

Anyway, go read Boué's most excellent English language note about Venezuela's oil production. It really is the recommended link of the week, superbly educational and wise. Here's the link again, just in case.

They call it (in)elasticity

It's not LatAm, but just a quick post on today's US home sales news as the issue really is ground zero to all the mess.

This report from AP covered the news from the USA's National Association of Realtors that home sales rose 2.9% in April and is full of positive spin, using phrases such as "snap up bargains", "rose modestly", "beat expectations", "buyers swooped in" etc etc.

But you can't hide economics 101 from the figures, either. When annual sales rise 2.9% to 468,000 and average house prices drop by 15.4% in the same period, you just know there are lower prices to come. This isn't even worth debating...you can, quite literally, put the mortgage on it.

Icebergs ahoy!

PI Financial Corp has still got its foot firmly on the Rusoro PPS, but this morning's action looks like melting a large chunk of the iceberg that's suppressed the stock. Here's today's early morning action and "59" is still squatting on that ask.

	09:38:12	V	0.46	+0.025	10,000	1 Anonymous	59 PI	K
	09:32:17	V	0.46	+0.025	2,000	124 Questrade	59 PI	K
	09:31:35	V	0.465	+0.03	10,000	79 CIBC	59 PI	K
	09:30:58	V	0.46	+0.025	500	124 Questrade	89 Raymond James	K
	09:30:34	V	0.46	+0.025	500	124 Questrade	59 PI	K
	09:30:34	V	0.46	+0.025	100,000	2 RBC	59 PI	K
	09:30:34	V	0.46	+0.025	100,000	2 RBC	59 PI	K
	09:30:34	V	0.46	+0.025	75,000	2 RBC	59 PI	K
	09:30:34	V	0.46	+0.025	74,500	2 RBC	59 PI	K

09:30:00	V	0.46	+0.025	300	89 Raymond James	33 Canaccord	E
09:30:00	V	0.46	+0.025	25,500	2 RBC	33 Canaccord	K
09:30:00	V	0.46	+0.025	100,000	2 RBC	33 Canaccord	K
09:30:00	V	0.46	+0.025	75,000	2 RBC	33 Canaccord	K

DYODD, dudes, as Venezuela exposed gold stocks aren't for the faint of heart.