There's a good reason for this. About four weeks ago I was asked for thoughts on Palladium. I wrote this post at the time saying I knew very little about the metal, but also put up a couple of charts with simple technical analysis comments. The LT charts suggested that Palladium would either hold $182/oz or slump to $100/oz.As we can see from the chart here, that (self-confessed very tentative) call was so much crap. Moral of the story:
1) Don't read too much into a chart. The main problem with charts is that they'll fool you into seeing what you want to see. Most of the random walk problems stem from that.
2) Don't ask me about palladium. There's a very simple reason as to why I know more about the copper market than the palladium market. There's no palladium in Latin America* but there's a whole mountain range full of copper. For PGM, go ask a Russian.
3) Beware of people who proclaim to have the answer to all things market. I know a little bit about a little corner of the world and can read company reports because I was taught how to do it and have done it for lawd-knows how many years. Understanding balance sheets correctly allows you to note the financial wellbeing of a company, but it doesn't suddenly make anyone an expert on what that company does. In the same way you cringe when a pop-star starts explaining how to save the world, you should also see red flags when a banking analyst starts pontificating about a resources company and what its CEO is doing wrong. Horses for courses. That's all.
*ok...there's a little bit. But we're not talking ring of fire here
*ok...there's a little bit. But we're not talking ring of fire here