Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Ecopetrol (EC) update: nice numbers, good growth, possible hedge vehicle


It's been a tough debut for the ADR shares of Ecopetrol so far, as the chart above shows. After debuting at $25 the ADR has slipped to today's U$16.49. However the company is doing well enough and yesterday announced profits of U$942m, up from U$800m YoY. EPS was COP$97.06. As the ADR is equivalent to 20 shares and the exchange rate is COP2311=U$1 right now, that gives us a quarterly EPADR of U$0.84 for a U$16.49 equity...not bad at all, really. A forward P/E ratio of 4.9X for a growth hydrocarbons company is attractive, even in the face of $60/bbl oil.

In fact all key numbers were up compared to the same quarter in 2007, but the one that I like the most is production at 441,000bbl/d eq, compared to 392,000bbl/d eq for 3q07. This shows that EC is in position to weather the downturn in barrel prices.

One thing to note about EC is that it provides the US investor an excellent hedge against the USD going forward. If (and it's a big "if", but it must at least be considered) the US dollar weakens in the next few weeks both the Colombian Peso (COP) and oil prices will benefit. This double whammy effect makes EC a good stock to consider when portfolio balancing is on the agenda. DYODD dude.