Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Trading Post (uff edition)


Apex Silver (SIL) down 50% at $0.70. I mentioned to avoid this thing like the plague. Now you know why. SIL is also trying to sell its interest in the San Cristobal mine to minority partner Sumitomo.

Meanwhile in the world of the living.......

Jaguar Mining (JAG) down 12% at $2.94. I recently ran the numbers on this thing and reckon $4.50 is a fair initial12 month target if gold moves above $750/oz. As with all the miners right now spot price is the critical driver, but a modicum of bounce in gold and methinks this is a 50% gain. DYODD

True too for Capstone (CS.to) down 10+% at $1.01. Despite last week's excellent results and noting cash cost at $1.29/lb, CS.to has been taken to the woodshed again. Copper spot is the driver here, of course.

Ecopetrol (EC) is flat on the day with very low volume. Note that the market liked the quarterly results as it opened at $18 yesterday, but since then the bids just keep getting hit. Not even the sound, profitable growth companies are safe in this macro-environment.

Petrobras (PBR) is enjoying the publicity Bloomberg offered up yesterday. Now down 7% or so at $25. Yeah I know oil is under $60 and that's the real reason, but let's keep pretending that Bloomberg actually matters in these things....it makes their hacks feel better about life. Stops them worrying about the impending round of pinkslips in the LatAm region.

Mercado Libre (MELI) got whacked too, down 10+% at $10.40. I sold the portion picked up Friday at a loss.....no point in insisting. I would have sold them yesterday but I was traveling and it wasn't possible. So be it. Not the first time I've taken a loss on the chin, and not the last time either. Otto is Mr. FullCash again.