The red bars are the just-published figures for the candidates, and show José Serra's lead whittled down to a statistical dead heat by the PT party's Dilma Rousseff. Dilma remains my tip for the job and her name is getting out now that campaigning has been geared up. The two grey bars show the results of a survey from the same Sensus pollsters in Feb 2010, so if the polls are accurate Dilma has made up 6 points of difference in that time.
Back in third is Ciro Gomes, fourth is the Green Party candidate Marina Silva.