Scotia upgrades Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax)

"When you make the finding yourself, even if you're the
last person on Earth to see the light, you never forget it."
Carl Sagan

For those with longer memories, we at IKN chortled hard at Scotia Capital and Trevor Turnbull when he downgraded Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax) last year, at the exact same time that the stock started its big run from the very low $1s to the high $2s. However, fair dinkum to the dude for two reasons:

1) He took his dosage like a man (far better than the normal whining from the analyst community, it must be said).

2) Today he's re-rated Troy Resources again, upgrading and raising his target to CAD$2.50 (as reported on the DJNW wires, no link sorry)

We like Trevor Turnbull. And we very like Troy Resources. DYODD, dude.

Looks like Troy Resources' (TRY.to) (TRY.ax) is up for higher insurance premiums next time around

This kind of thing happens occasionally in the more remote gold mines of this world and it's always a possible in the wild west show that is rural Brazil. TRY is insured (the comapny is quick to point out) but all the same it's a risk. Very glad that nobody was killed or injured in the incident.

Thanks due to readers MP, MM and HP who all sent in this story. Appreciated, people.

TROY Resources said today that armed robbers stole 2000 ounces of gold dore bars from its Andorinhas mine in Brazil after taking workers hostage.

Troy said three workers were taken hostage but released unharmed after the theft on Monday and the loss is fully covered by the company's insurance.

"A group of armed robbers took three site employees hostage on the road leaving the mine and returned to the Andorinhas site where approximately 2000 ounces of gold dore was taken," Troy said in a statement to the stock exchange on today.

"The hostages were then released, unharmed."

The loss is insured and the matter is being investigated by local police, Troy's chief executive Paul Benson said in a statement.

"This is obviously a very disturbing event," Mr Benson said.

"We are cooperating with the relevant authorities and will update the market when we receive a final report."

Major gold miners can process their gold-bearing ore at the site of the mine, producing low purity dore bars.

Dore bars can contain up to 90 per cent gold.

Spot gold was trading at $US1113.30 in Sydney today.

Love is all around Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax)

Get ready to feel all soft and gooey, mineheads, cos the head honchos at Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax) have decided that the best part of breakin' up is when you're makin' up. According to the press release from last night (see below) the Extraordinary General Meeting called by lover John to oust lover Benson from his CEO's job has been called off.

So the good news is that the pissing contests are done with, the idiot egowars are now all over and the people running TRY can get back to concentrating on what they should have been doing these last few weeks, namely building and running a gold mine or two. Gotta love them Aussies.

Castlemaine XXXX and Toohey's served, the end.

Here's the news release from today:

Troy Resources NL: Withdrawal of Request for EGM

04:48 EST Tuesday, November 03, 2009

PERTH, WESTERN AUSTRALIA--(Marketwire - Nov. 3, 2009) -

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UNITED STATES NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES

Growing junior gold producer, Troy Resources NL (TSX:TRY)(ASX:TRY), is pleased to advise shareholders that a requisition for an Extraordinary General Meeting planned for 16 November 2009 has been withdrawn.

This follows the conclusion of discussions with Warrigal Pty Ltd, a company associated with Mr John Jones, a Non-Executive Director of the Company. As a consequence, the EGM has now been cancelled.

As a result of those discussions, a number of changes will be made to the Board of Directors at the Annual General Meeting of shareholders set down for 27 November 2009.

Mr Alan Naylor, the founder of Troy, has advised the Company that he will not seek re-election at the AGM and will retire from the Board after 25 years' service as a Director.

Dr Denis Clarke, who has been a Director of Troy for 10 years, has advised the Board that to facilitate the agreement with Warrigal he will resign as a director and leave the board at the AGM.

On behalf of all shareholders, the Board acknowledges and thanks Mr Naylor and Dr Clarke for their outstanding contributions to the Company over an extended period.

Mr Robin Parish, a 5% beneficial shareholder in Troy, will be appointed to the Board immediately and Mr Paul Benson will step down as a Director but will remain as the Company's Chief Executive Officer.

In addition, Mr Jones has confirmed that he will support the re-election of Troy Chairman, Mr John Dow, as a Director at the upcoming AGM.

Commenting on these changes, Mr Dow said he welcomed the resolution of the issues raised by Warrigal.

"The successful resolution of these issues is a win for the future of Troy.

"All parties are committed to a strategy which delivers the best outcome for all Troy shareholders.

"Having recently secured a fully underwritten entitlement issue to raise A$24.9M, the Company can focus its efforts on developing the Casposo gold-silver project in San Juan province, Argentina.

"Importantly, the timeline for the development of Casposo remains on track for first production in the September quarter 2010," Mr Dow said.

Mr Jones reiterated the comments of Mr Dow. "This is a great outcome for Troy and all its shareholders," he said.

Troy Resources (TRY.to): Sorry? What was that about panic selling again?

The only difference,
Twixt men and boys,
Is the shape, the size,
and the price of their toys.

(anon)

Here's the three month chart of my fave small gold producer, Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax) with a couple of pointers to recent events.

Those of us that follow the stock closely know there's a boardroom headbutting contest between the current executive (led up by CEO Benson) and the old guard led up by company founder and large shareholder John Jones. The fight is about how to raise capital for the new Casposo project in Argentina and basically Jones is against Benson's plan to raise via an equity dilution. It's more intricate than that (those watching closely, please note those part-paid shares that have been converted this month) but it boils down to one thing: Two mining boys having a pissing match, both of them right and neither of them wrong.

As for the share price, the whole shebang concerned your humble servant much less than other observers, that's clear. The stock dropped off a cliff for a while but I just said "hold"...I even said "buy some cheap ones if you want" at some point but didn't partake myself...already full, y'see.

So here we are a few weeks later (and still on the run-up to the big bad boardroom showdown at the end of November) and the stock has....oh look...it's at new highs. This means that the market has cottoned on to the basic truth; whoever runs TRY going forward, it's going to be a success.

Moral of the story; let those oh so important boys play their oh so important games. The fundy analysis holds strong and the company is growing and set to make seriously good money going forward. Y'know, sometimes...just occasionally...it pays to be a small retail minnow and miss out on all the bigswingingdick stuff that goes on in the faster lanes of mining.

Troy Resources news (TRY.to)

TRY.ax closed up 1.3% at A$2.43 last night.
Here's the three month chart

Thanks due to kind reader 'M' for the headsup to the link. Here we have country standardbearing media source 'The Australian' reporting on the boardroom headbutting that currently going on over at Troy Resources (TRY.to)(TRY.ax).

No need to sample any of the text here, just click the link and go read it yourself. I'd just like to add that the photo of jones includes a very iffy necktie with yellow/black squares and interspersed flowers. Must pass as fashion in Oz.

Troy Resources (TRY.ax)(TRY.to):

Here's the three month chart of the Australian listing for Troy Resources (TRY.ax).........and it looks as if the market has come the the same sort of conclusion your humble servant did when the boardroom headbutting began, namely that it won't matter much in the long run.

As for the arbitrage between the Oz listing and its thinner-traded Canadian sibling, the forex rates suggest the A$2.45 close last night in Australia puts TRY.to at CAD$2.338 today. Troy Resources closed at CAD$2.17 yesterday.

Then factor in the gold move up and through U$1,050 this morning and, all in all, it looks quite promising for the Canadian listing of this quality, small goldie with tons of growth baked in. Yes I own, so DYODD dude.

Troy Resources (TRY.to)(TRY.ax): A new NOBS report coming in IKN20

I'm happy to report that today Troy Resources (TRY.to)(TRY.ax) blew through our 12 month target for the stock as set in the NOBS fundamental report on the stock in The IKN Weekly, issue five. In that IKN5 edition published in May 2009, the stock stood at CAD$1.32 and the report finished with these words (slightly edited):

"Since NOBS first recommended TRY.to as a top-rated investment on December 29th 2008 the stock has performed very well and has moved up 80.8%. However there is plenty left in the tank here and once the Casposo mine comes online the current 12 month forecast may well be left for dust by those wise enough to keep holding through. NOBS has no hesitation in reiterating its strong buy rating on Troy Resources (TRY.to) with a 12 month price target of C$2.25 for the Canadian stock that assumes (paragraph continues)........"

A 70% upside (or XXXXX% at $1000/oz gold) might not be your idea of a great investment as you might be out there looking for the five or ten bagger right now in the current atmosphere. Well, if you like we can change the valuation metrics, aim at $1000 gold, limit production forecasts, trim that cash cost, base the target on a 24 month price, use 2011 revenues projections and up the PE multiple to 12X. And hey wow, suddenly the forecast is for C$XXXXX and +XXXXX% (I just did that on the spreadsheet and that’s what popped out). But that’s not how The IKN Weekly works as I much prefer treating you guys like the adults you are and not waving pretty baubles in front of your eyes. What we have here is a company offering strong upside even using conservative parameters. We hit that first target, we look at it again. We examine why it’s made it so far and we can adjust upwards. There will be no reason to sell Troy Resources until the music stops with the price of gold. This company offers exceptional investment value, be in no doubt.

So that's exactly what we're going to do this weekend, folks. The target has been reached and we're now going to look at the changes we've seen in TRY (both good and bad) and see what we can expect from the stock going forward. See you there at the weekend. Until then, don't touch that dial.

Chart of the day...

...tempts a little hubris, but WTH...the dude deserves what's coming anyway.

You have to wonder how those Scotia clients are feeling after taking Trevor Turnbull's advice and bailing...and missing a 37% move since their very own sales marked the bottom. I particularly liked the line Trev used in his June 26 Scotia note that (and I quote) "Troy is only expected to be a micro-producer with less than 70,000 oz over the next few years", when the facts show 50,000 flowing from Andorinhas, 30,000 from Sandstone and the new 60,000 oz (or so) mine at Casposo coming online in September 2010. Maybe Trev meant to write "next few months" and not years.

Trevor: Epic, epic fail. Just shows what happens when your analyst loves his qualifications more than actually doing some work. So Trevor Turnbull MBA MSc, for the obviously pisspoor research you did on Troy Resoures (TRY.to) (TRY.ax) and the amazingly bad timing of your 100% incorrect advice, you win this week's coveted award. Enjoy, dumbass.


Related link: Taking it like a man

Troy Resources (TRY.to) news

Overnight in Oz TRY.to came out with two PDFs worth reading.

This one, which is the new company presentation (read for yourself why you should own this company).

And this one, which tells that capex costs for Casposo are down to U$45m.

When this thing goes above $2, remember who screamed at you all through 2009 from 84c upwards, yeah?

Troy Resources

Troy Resources (TRY.to) is a stock you should have in your portfolio imho, but if I haven't been able to convince you so far maybe checking out the latest company presentation will help you see the light.

Find the 37 page PDF on this link. Click through and read about a great little gold company with top management and plenty plenty blue sky upside. Enjoy.

Troy Resources (TRY.to): We like this, oh yes we do

Where it's at.

Check out this Reuters note from yesterday (HT MontyHigh from Worldofwallstreet) about Troy Resources' (TRY.to) new Casposo project in Argentina. Here's how it starts, click thru for the rest;

BUENOS AIRES, June 22 (Reuters) - Casposo, an Argentine mine operated by Australia's Troy Resources TRY.V, will begin to produce gold and silver next year after an $87 million investment in the project, an executive from the company told Reuters on Monday.

Construction at the mine in San Juan Province, some 785 miles (1,265 km) northwest of Buenos Aires, should be complete this year and the mine will employ at least 200 people when it is operational.

"What we have said is that we could start the construction before the end of the year, now I quite clearly see we are probably going to do it faster than that," Ken Nilsson, operations director for Troy Resources said in an interview in Buenos Aires.

"And the planning (for production) is for 12 months after starting the construction but again I'm hoping to do it quicker than that. My personal target is the beginning of July (of 2010)........."

CONTINUES HERE

Meanwhile, for those of you who think that Argentina isn't the right place to be if you're a mining company, I say to you "wrongo", cos you really need to know what part of Argentina you're in. Here's a small extract from the latest issue of The IKN Weekly that subscribers (i hope) have already read and digested.

"On Friday the governor of San Juan, José Luis Gioja, defended the development of mining activity in the province and stated that thanks to this sector they “now have a important productive trajectory”. Gioja spoke in favour of of mining development during the presentation of regulations for suppliers to the Pascua Lama project being developed by the Barrick mining company.

"The presentation was held in the Civic Centre of the capital of San Juan. According to the governor, “the people of San Juan had national laws that promoted the local economy, such as agricultural and industrial promotions. Now we no longer have those tools of promotion and we have suffered somewhat (due to this). But now we are getting back on our feet again; we have found an important productive trajectory and the State is not the only entity that is creating employment, even though there are those who attack us and dont tell the truth.” He also assured the audience that “mining activity represents progress and growth for San Juan” and that “miners will be made to respect environmental impact studies and strict rules and controls to avoid pollution........”

There's plenty more where that came from. Moral of the story; know your region. The other moral is ; Buy TRY.to. the other other moral is subscribe to the IKN Weekly, cos if you did you'll already know this and a lot more.

Troy Resources

Check out the chart above, that shows Troy Resources in its Australian listing (TRY.ax). As anyone who reads this blog for more than a week should know,TRY.to/TRY.ax is my idea of a great investment this year, so it's interesting to see the better traded TRY.ax listing at A$1.41 as at last night's close, a figure that tests both yearly highs and a three month old trading channel.

Troy is still my top pick for 2009. Disclosure: I own and I'm 42% up on the position...so far. DYODD, dude.

Troy Resources reports its quarter

On this link you can get your own copy of the quarter end March 2009 report that was released today. Overall its a pleasing report and the market rewarded the Aussie listed stock with a 9.4% increase to A$1.335 (CAD$1.15 approx). Not bad at all considering what happened to gold while Australia was asleep yesterday anjd as gold has managed to climb back above $900 on this side of the world today there's plenty of reason to expet a very decent pop in TRY.to this morning. Here are four points (from many others) that caught my eye in the report:

• The most important positive is the doubleplay that cash costs have dropped and its Australian Sandstone mine is producing competitively.

• Another positive is the reported A$64.8m in cash/bank/bullion deposits. This represents U$46.8m at current forex and means that the new Casposo mine and capex an be paid for out of treasury and there's little reason to expect any dilutive financing going forward.

• Another intriguing bonus is talk of a sale of its Iron Ore to one of two possible Brazilian purchasers. Although I personally am not holding my breath on this one (see today's Chart of the Day) if TRY can do a deal it would be a great cash bonus to the company.

• The major negative in the release is the delays experienced at Andorinhas in opening up the high grade underground extraction. By no means serious, but all the same the company is now behind schedule on that count. TRY now expects to start feeding significant amounts of high grade into the mix beginning June 2009. Let's see if they make that on time this time. TRY reports difficulties in procuring equipment and also power outages. The power problem sould now be a thing of the past as they've invested in back up diesel generators.

As said, those are just a few of the points I picked up and I strongly recommend that you read the full report (on that link above) for yourself. It's my idea of a great investment and I cannot be louder and clearer than that. Great prospects, growth baked in, under the radar and importantly run by honest management that truly put shareholders first and don't just pay lip-service to that angle. I'm long and have been since $0.84 and expect plenty more upside to come. My NOBS report on Troy Resources is still available if you are enough, find details here. However be clear that if you pay $10 all you'll get is plenty more detail and the same reco; "buy" as I'm not trying any hard sell here. I'll leave you with the Australian-listed stock and its performance from last night.