I'm happy to report that today Troy Resources (TRY.to)(TRY.ax) blew through our 12 month target for the stock as set in the NOBS fundamental report on the stock in The IKN Weekly, issue five. In that IKN5 edition published in May 2009, the stock stood at CAD$1.32 and the report finished with these words (slightly edited):
"Since NOBS first recommended TRY.to as a top-rated investment on December 29th 2008 the stock has performed very well and has moved up 80.8%. However there is plenty left in the tank here and once the Casposo mine comes online the current 12 month forecast may well be left for dust by those wise enough to keep holding through. NOBS has no hesitation in reiterating its strong buy rating on Troy Resources (TRY.to) with a 12 month price target of C$2.25 for the Canadian stock that assumes (paragraph continues)........"
A 70% upside (or XXXXX% at $1000/oz gold) might not be your idea of a great investment as you might be out there looking for the five or ten bagger right now in the current atmosphere. Well, if you like we can change the valuation metrics, aim at $1000 gold, limit production forecasts, trim that cash cost, base the target on a 24 month price, use 2011 revenues projections and up the PE multiple to 12X. And hey wow, suddenly the forecast is for C$XXXXX and +XXXXX% (I just did that on the spreadsheet and that’s what popped out). But that’s not how The IKN Weekly works as I much prefer treating you guys like the adults you are and not waving pretty baubles in front of your eyes. What we have here is a company offering strong upside even using conservative parameters. We hit that first target, we look at it again. We examine why it’s made it so far and we can adjust upwards. There will be no reason to sell Troy Resources until the music stops with the price of gold. This company offers exceptional investment value, be in no doubt.
So that's exactly what we're going to do this weekend, folks. The target has been reached and we're now going to look at the changes we've seen in TRY (both good and bad) and see what we can expect from the stock going forward. See you there at the weekend. Until then, don't touch that dial.