Peru: Eve of vote polling

These numbers are not allowed to be published inside Peru but have been made available to foreign journalists and commentators by the relevant polling companies. There is no margin of error nor is there the sample number given with the polls, so you just have to go with the headline numbers and be done. And sorry, no links either. So here we go with the numbers from IPSOS/Apoyo and from CPI:

IPSOS/Apoyo
Ollanta Humala 29.5%
Keiko Fujimori 21.5%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 20.5%
Alejandro Toledo 19.1%
Luis Castañeda 12.1%

CPI
Ollanta Humala 29.5%
Keiko Fujimori 22.1%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 21.5%
Alejandro Toledo 19.1%
Luis Castañeda 11.5%

UPDATE: The numbers above are good, but strangely Reuters is now quoting a different set of numbers for the IPSOS poll (they also have the sample number, 6000). Reuters goes:

Ollanta Humala 28.1%
Keiko Fujimori 21.1%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 19.9%
Alejandro Toledo 16.8%
Luis Castañeda not mentioned in Reuters note

UPDATE 2: More polling noise here, with Venezuela's Globovision reporting on pollster's IMASEN and its vote simulation poll today that puts Toledo in second place. It also has numbers for the CPI and Ipsos polls that are different to the above numbers. Methinks disinformation is the order of the day and that we really need to wait 24 hours to find out some solid stats before going any further. IKN signing out for Sunday.

Annals of opinion poll predictions, Luis Castañeda edition

Part one: In this report dated today and timed 07:40am, one-time frontrunner for the Peru Presidential election assures the world that he will not drop any further in the polls than his current 15.0% rating.

Part two: In this report dated today and timed 08:36am, Castañeda polls 13.8%.

 

For what it's worth, today's IMA poll (margin of error +/- 4%) has Alejandro Toledo in the lead at 23.9%, Ollanta Humala in second spot at 21.9% and Keiko Fujimori in third at 17.6%. Then comes PPK with 16.9% and bottom of the five Castañeda with the aforementioned 13.8%. But be careful from now on, as the polls coming between now and Sunday 3rd are likely to be....errrr......how to put this diplomatically?...errr....to the taste of the owners or commissioners of the surveys.

Peru: Latest polls for the 2011 Presidential election

The poll published by pollsters IMA today is based on Lima & Metro area alone (where for example Ollanta Humala is less popular and Luis Castañeda is better known) but the main takeway is that Alejandro Toledo is continuing his slow but steady rise in the polls.

Although not even officially running yet, Toledo has been more active in the last few weeks and everybody now expects him to announce he's throwing his hat in to the ring in the next few weeks.

Right now it's looking like a three-horse race. None of them appeal very much to this humble scribe, but if I could make one request it'd be "no Keiko...please, no Keiko".

Twobreakfasts approval rating drops 9 points to 21%

The thing about populations is that they've consistently proven themselves to be much smarter than either politicians or media outlets give them credit. Today's opinion poll published by IPSOS Apoyo is the regular monthly roundup of approval ratings in Peru, but is also the first one to be published since the Bagua massacre. Here are some of the choicer details, but you should click through and look for yourself; there's a lot of info and even basic Spanish should see you through (numbers are numbers, y'see);

• Twobreakfasts' approval rating drops 9% to stand at 21%
• His disapproval rating rises 15% to stand at 78%

• Prime Minister Yehude Simon's approval rating drops 10% to stand at 25%
• His disapproval rating rises 17% to stand at 61%

• Finance Minister Luis Carranza's approval rating drops 7% to stand at 19%
• His disapproval rating rises 9% to stand at 60%

Also, 63% of those polled said Yehude Simon sould resign, and a full 73% said Interior Minister Mercedes "nothing to do with me" Cabanillas should also resign. As for "who's to blame" for the Bagua massacre, here's how the percentages line up (more than one answer sometimes given)

• Twobreakfasts 57%
• Cabanillas 39%
• Simon 24%
• Alberto Pizango 17%
• National Police 17%
• Extremist Infiltrators 11%
• Foreign Infiltrators 11%
• Native Communities 7%
• NGOs 5%
• other/no answer 6%

So much for Evo Morales getting the blame, eh? As my personal favourite stat, 92% of Peruvians think that Amazon natives should be been consulted before the "law of the jungle" decrees (DL1064, DL1090) were passed. It makes the Peruvian embassy's argument last week look as stupid as it is and shows that Peruvians aren't going to settle for anything less than democracy.

All in all, it's good to note that the people of Peru weren't led up the garden path by the heinous propaganda spewed by Twobreakfasts and his lapdog press corps this month. The country of Peru really does deserve far better leaders than the dross it has to put up with.

Chart of the day is.......

...one that shows the ongoing negative opinion polls for President Klishtina of Argentina.

Not much to add, really. She's still the second most unpopular regional president, vox populi dixit. At least her positive column isn't getting any worse, I suppose, but these numbers are down from the 45% to 50% bracket she held when voted into the presidency. Doesn't bode well for her supporters in the congressional elections late this year.