Polling for the new Mayor of Lima, Peru

On October 3rd, Peru runs its municipal elections to vote in mayors and regional representatives in an election that will shape the 2011 Presidentials. The most important race, and one that will really set the scene for next year, is that for the mayor of Lima.

Pollsters IMA published its third monthly voter intention poll today on the race and the results are interesting. Here's the chart:

click to enlarge

Lourdes Flores, a right wing candidate who has failed several times at runs for the Presidency, is leading and steady in first place. In second and fading fast is Alex Kouri, up to this year the mayor of neighbouring Callao but a person tainted with plenty of suspected corruption over the years.

But the most interesting thing about today's poll is the rapid rise of centre-left Susana Villarán, now holding 9.7% of voter intentions, double that of last month. Susana is a rare breed amongst Peruvian politicians in that she's honest and trustworthy. Seeing her rise in the polls here suggests that Peru is actually maturing as a political entity and is looking for a break from the usual mafioso-type of representatives that look after themselves first and care little about the people they govern.

We wish Susana well, hope she makes a serious run at second place soon and goes on to fight it out with Lourdes.

Peru's 2011 Presidential Race: New poll numbers

Here's the chart:

click to enlarge

Lord help the world, Keiko "I'm not the continuation of Fujimori policies" Fujimori (make that Fuji-Freakin-Mori) is ahead with 22% of voter intention. Second is Luis "Interesting" Castañeda and third....still creeping up...is ex-Pres Alejandro Toledo, who still has my five bucks as most likely winner right now (and I'm no real fan of his, before you say anything). Then comes the untouchable Ollanta and then the joke candidates (that moniker most definitely includes the current FinMin Araoz).

For the record, this survey was done by the basically reliable IPSOS/Apoyo people for El Comercio (notably throwing its weight behind the Toledo campaign recently). Survey sample was 1200 people from 17 cities up and down Peru between July 13th and 16th, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

Survey of International Mining Engineering Programs (April 2010)

Society of Mining Professors Societät der Bergbaukunde

     

Survey of International Mining Engineering Programs (April 2010)

The Education Committee of the Society of Mining Professors (SOMP) is continuing to gather an up to date, and internationally comprehensive database of mining students, staff and graduates, in order to provide both educators and industry with a more factually-based assessment of the status of this education sector and trends in teaching and graduate numbers.  The first such survey was conducted in February, 2008, and it is intended to survey international universities on an annual basis in the future.

This survey has been designed to be as simple as possible, so as to minimize the amount of time required to complete it.  Copies of the processed survey results will be available to all contributors.

Thank you in advance, in anticipation of your co-operation and your contribution.  If you are aware of other institutions in your country who may not have received this survey, it would be appreciated if you could forward the survey to them, or complete a survey on their behalf, with their agreement.

Please complete the survey in English.

If you have completed either the 2008 or 2009 surveys (including statistics up to end 2008), there is no need to repeat the historical statistical data in Part C, Q8.  Simply complete the introductory Parts A and B, then skip straight to Part C, Q8 to provide the data for the latest completed year (2009).  If this is the first return, please provide as much of the additional rows of historical statistical data as is readily available.

Please email your completed survey form, no later than 23^rd May, 2010, to:

Professor Bruce Hebblewhite

School of Mining Engineering,

The University of New South Wales, Australia

(B.Hebblewhite@unsw.edu.au)

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me at the above email address.  Thank you in advance, for your assistance with this survey.

Bruce Hebblewhite

(on behalf of SOMP Education Committee)

_______________________________________________________________________

Survey of International Mining Engineering Programs

(April, 2010)

Survey Period: 2009 Year

(Please complete one of these surveys for each Mining Engineering Program, reflecting the status for the calendar year 2009, i.e. as at December, 2009).

(Part A: Mining Program)

1.                  COUNTRY: …………………

(eg Australia)

2.                  UNIVERSITY/INSTITUTION:………………

(eg The University of New South Wales)

3.                  NAME OF DEPARTMENT/SCHOOL/UNIT: ………….

(eg School of Mining Engineering)

4.                  NAME OF DEGREE AWARDED: …………………………

(eg Bachelor of Engineering (Mining))

(Please only include data relating to Programs leading to a recognized/accredited primary mining engineering degree)

5.                  MINIMUM NUMBER OF YEARS REQUIRED TO GAIN DEGREE

(on full-time basis):……

(eg   4)

(Part B: Academic/Teaching Staff – as at December, 2009)

(When answering Q6, please down-rate the numbers, if staff involved are shared in their teaching across multiple primary disciplines, eg if a person teaches equally into both a mining engineering program and a geology program, then only count them as a fractional figure in this survey (0.5 for example against mining engineering).  However, do not down-rate for share of other postgrad or research activity – it is assumed that all academic staff carry a normal load of this nature.)

6.                  NUMBER OF FULL-TIME (or f/t equivalent) ACADEMIC/TEACHING STAFF INVOLVED IN TEACHING THE ABOVE PROGRAM AT EACH LEVEL:

Professors: ………………………. (eg  1)

Associate Professors: …………… (eg  1)

Senior Lecturers: ……………….  (eg  6)

Lecturers: ……………………….  (eg  1)

(Others): …………………………  (eg 1.5)

TOTAL: …………………………  (eg  10.5)

7.                  PERCENTAGE OF ABOVE TOTAL STAFF NUMBER WHO ARE FEMALE: ………………………………

(eg  0%)

(Part C: Student and Graduate Numbers)

8.                  PLEASE COMPLETE THE FOLLOWING TABLE, WITH 4 ENTRIES, PER YEAR.  THESE ARE AS FOLLOWS:

(a)               Number of new students who entered/commenced this mining program for the first time.

(b)               Proportion of (a) who were female (%).

(c)                Number of students who completed and graduated (or were eligible to graduate) from the program during the calendar year.

(d)               Proportion of (c) who were female (%).

(Please complete this table for 2009 numbers.  It would also be of great assistance if you are able to provide data from previous years, using the same table, if available – if you have not already done so).

Year	(a) Commencing student numbers	(b) Percentage  of females in (a) (%)	(c) Student completion numbers	(d) Percentage of females in (c) (%)
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000

Agreement for release and use of data

It is intended that the above data will be aggregated at a national, and international level, with only the names of the contributing institutions identified.

I agree that the data provided above can be analysed, used, and disclosed, on this aggregated basis, for the purposes outlined.

YES / NO

Name of person completing this survey: ………………………………………………...

Position: …………………………………………..

Institution: ……………………………………………………..............Date:……………

Email address: …………………………………………………

________________________________________________________________________

Life's easiest jobs, part 15: A bookmaker in Argentina

With just 50 days to go to the beginning of the greatest sporting contest on the planet (hint: USA isn't very good at this sport) we check in on the Mision Mundial dedicated page at Argentina's biggest circulating newspaper, Clarín, to check on a reader's poll. The question asked is:

"Who will be the next World Cup Champion?"

Here's are the results so far:

1. Argentina 51.1% (33107 votes)
2. Spain 19.3% (12506 votes)
3. Brazil 11.9% (7720 votes)
4. Germany 3.1% (2008 votes)
5. Uruguay 2.7% (1757 votes)
6. Chile 2.6% (1712 votes)
7. England 2.6% (1697 votes)
8. Holland 1.5% (943 votes)
9. Italy 1.4% (881 votes)
10. South Africa 1% (673 votes)
11. Portugal 0.6% (394 votes)
12. France 0.4% (251 votes)
13. Other 1.8%(1134 votes)

Just more proof that Argentina lives in its own little world, hermetically sealed off from reality.

Leguis served, the end.

UPDATE: I pie with my little eye....

Peru: It's no use asking the lapdog media about the state of Peru, so who can you ask?

Hey, why not ask Peruvians?

The survey by reputable firm CCR and reported in El Comercio today, also notes 32% of Peruvians with difficulty in paying for basic services (gas, water, electricity etc), lots of planned spending delayed (e.g. home improvements, vacations).

But I was glad to note that CCR also took a "happiness poll" and found that 76% of Peruvians were happy, 19% neither happy nor unhappy and 5% unhappy. As pollster Ana Cecilia Matos explained, "People say they are happy because the happiness comes from their family relations", which explains just why the Peruvian people are so wonderful as a group and deserve far more than the pathetic governments they are offered. Remember that concept of money not buying happiness and how it isn't the centre of the universe? Well, it still exists on this side of the Darien Gap. I always have a little chuckle to myself when I hear the industrialized nations refer to themselves as the "developed" ones.

Racism and sexism in Latin America? Shocked ah wuz...SHOCKED ah tellz ya

The Inter American Development Bank (IADB) has just released a study on salary gaps between the sexes and between different ethic groupings in LatAm and you can read the English language synopsis here (or the Spanish language one here, if you prefer). The conclusion is yet another dose of 'No shit Sherlock'. Yup, whiteys make more money than those brown coloured people and men make more than women. But the best part of the survey (though admittedly I haven't studied their methodology) is that the samples are adjusted for education levels, too. This means you're really looking at like-for-like people and there's no escaping the racism and sexism that's part of LatAm society's fabric.

Here's the IADB chart for the salary difference between the sexes.

Here's the IADB chart for the racial differences.

No difference on this chart should be allowed, really, but I'd put my personal tolerance limit at 10%. This means that there are far too many states lined up on the wall of shame over these issues. But the funniest one is that of Brazil, so proud of the fact that there is no racism or sexism in its society. This study calls bullshit on that canard once and for all. The only part of "no racism" that is true is "no talk about racism, please". The only sexism stems from "she complains and we'll fire her".

Finally, you'll also note that Bolivian women earn more than Bolivian men. If you've ever been to the country you'll know why; those Bolivian women are a real hard-working bunch of people that just get their just desserts.

Bolivia's right wing thugs resort to violence because.....

...they know they can't win by any democratic or fair means.

Today, Gallup International released the results of their survey on the December 6th Presidential elections. Here's how voter intention stands right now between the candidates for the job.

Let's be clear: This is not a tough one to call, folks.
(click to enlarge)

According to Gallup, even if the fractured and rabid opposition bandied together and united behind a single candidate, the Evo would still score at least 58% of the vote and possibly a lot more. Also important is the low number of undecided, as minds are already largely made up. Evo wins, period. Get used to the fact, wingnuts.

Also (and this is pretty impressive), according to Gallup, as things stand Evo wins the popular vote in every single one of the nine departments of Bolivia. Here's the chart of the region-by-region voter intention...

Opposition=toast
(click to enlarge)

..and even in the lowest polling department of Santa Cruz (natch) he gets enough to be top dog against a fractured opposition and would be neck and neck if opposition united. As it is, he scores over 50% of the vote in four regions, easily wins three, probably wins Beni whatever happens and only has any chance of losing amongst the fascists and Nazi-worshippers of Santa Cruz...y'know, the ones John Enders speaks so highly of all the time.

Here's a report that includes this from Gallup (translated):

"The theory of ethnic division (place an indigenous candidate against Evo to split the MAS party vote) has not gained any traction, as neither Víctor Hugo Cárdenas, René Joaquino or Román Loayza have any popular support. This simply ratifies a principle of any strategist "Whoever tries to copy the fortunate leader will always come second" and also a second basic fundamental; "Never underestimate the advantages of facing a divided opposition."

"Also, under the "non-critical conclusions", Gallup establishes that with the exception of Santa Cruz and Beni the opposition has no clear chances; Santa Cruz, Beni and Pando have split votes (between two and three opposition candidates; in Cochabamba and Potosí, Reyes Villa and Joaquino respectively have some regional power. Mathematically, adding opposition votes gives 36% versus 58% for Morales and this gives (Reyes Villa and Joaquino) some possibilities."

Now it wasn't so long ago that a certain blue-eyed whitey named Enders filed a report lauding the sellout Cuellar of Chuquisaca and trying to make out that indigenous vote-splitting tactics of the opposition were working. Jeesh what a dumbass that guy is, waltzing around a country without a single clue about how it feels, what it thinks and how it acts....it's embarrassing. So when will the English language reporters start to accurately reflect the opinions of the clear majority of Bolivians? Inquiring minds etc...

Peru CPI survey: So much for growth

Peruvian pollsters CPI ran a survey recently and as well as the usual guff about popularity ratings (Twobreakfasts scored an abysmal 24%) and stuff about voter intentions for the next election (El Chino's daughter leading...it could only happen en un pais bananero) there was an interesting and detailed section on perceptions of the Garcia government and how the people that really matter (not you, not me, not that dumbass who wrote glowing BS for Slate, not the dumbasses in suits at RGE Monitor) namely the citizens of Peru see their country's progress under Twobreakfasts compared to the prvious administration led by Alejandro Toledo.

Here are the charts. This one is the full Monty with all stats but is tough to read....

Click to enlarge (gets big)

...so this second chart strips out the "same" and "no opinion" replies to give an easier-on-the-eye snapshot.

Click to enlarge

So of the 15 categories on display, things are worse than they were previously in nine, same in two and better in four. And note we're talking about the Toledo government by comparison here, the guy that polled single digit popularity numbers when in office. The bar was set very low for Twobreakfasts and he's jumped like an elephant. True mediocrity.

Finally, let's just point to the fact that although Peruvians recognize there is more investment coming into the country (other parts of the same survey make that abundantly clear) they are less content with their lot. It does beg the question as to why the meme of "foreign investment good" is pumped down people's throat sans cesse. But hey, wait a moment! Never mind the locals' views, cos it just so happens to benefit the people that write the reports saying "FDI good".

Funny coincidence dat, innit?

What's hot and what's not in Bolivia

Respected polling firm IPSOS/Apoyo has just come out with a new survey in Bolivia, asking 1,044 people from the four main population centres of the country their opinions on a range on national institutions and figures. Here are the results:

Top of the heap comes the Catholic Church, which will be no surprise to anyone who knows the region...it's like asking a Canadian whether he approves of hockey. Then strong support is shown for the country's media outlets (TV, radio, print media etc) and then come the Bolivian armed forces (again, no surprise). After that come a swathe of political figures with Evo leading the way on 57%. Frankly, anything above 50% for a politico is good going, so Evo, just four months away from the Presidential election shoo-in, will surely be happy with his number.

Bottom of the pile? Yep you guessed it, that nest of vipers known as the national congress. Y'see, Bolivia isn't all that different to chez vous after all.

Twobreakfasts approval rating drops 9 points to 21%

The thing about populations is that they've consistently proven themselves to be much smarter than either politicians or media outlets give them credit. Today's opinion poll published by IPSOS Apoyo is the regular monthly roundup of approval ratings in Peru, but is also the first one to be published since the Bagua massacre. Here are some of the choicer details, but you should click through and look for yourself; there's a lot of info and even basic Spanish should see you through (numbers are numbers, y'see);

• Twobreakfasts' approval rating drops 9% to stand at 21%
• His disapproval rating rises 15% to stand at 78%

• Prime Minister Yehude Simon's approval rating drops 10% to stand at 25%
• His disapproval rating rises 17% to stand at 61%

• Finance Minister Luis Carranza's approval rating drops 7% to stand at 19%
• His disapproval rating rises 9% to stand at 60%

Also, 63% of those polled said Yehude Simon sould resign, and a full 73% said Interior Minister Mercedes "nothing to do with me" Cabanillas should also resign. As for "who's to blame" for the Bagua massacre, here's how the percentages line up (more than one answer sometimes given)

• Twobreakfasts 57%
• Cabanillas 39%
• Simon 24%
• Alberto Pizango 17%
• National Police 17%
• Extremist Infiltrators 11%
• Foreign Infiltrators 11%
• Native Communities 7%
• NGOs 5%
• other/no answer 6%

So much for Evo Morales getting the blame, eh? As my personal favourite stat, 92% of Peruvians think that Amazon natives should be been consulted before the "law of the jungle" decrees (DL1064, DL1090) were passed. It makes the Peruvian embassy's argument last week look as stupid as it is and shows that Peruvians aren't going to settle for anything less than democracy.

All in all, it's good to note that the people of Peru weren't led up the garden path by the heinous propaganda spewed by Twobreakfasts and his lapdog press corps this month. The country of Peru really does deserve far better leaders than the dross it has to put up with.

Weekend Freestuff

Free free free, the price for me! Here we go with another round of boredom breakers and interest arousers. Take your pick from this little lot, sit back and read yourself into a stupor.


The Fraser Institute's 2009 World Mining Survey is out, so get your copy right here. You'll find the latest league tables, comments and all the usual stuff. It's one of those 'need to read' publications if you're into the industry, so read it.

Here's a good interview with Eric Coffin of HRA, as featured in yesterday's Late Edition with David Pescod. Late Edition has recently turned into a pumphouse for Canaccord approved stocks (or maybe it was always like that...I forget) but every so often it's well worth reading. This edition is the best of examples as we get to hear from one half of the Coffin Brothers team, best of breed in resource newsletters.

On the subject of good interviews, here's one that The Globe and Mail did with Don Coxe (of Basic Points and BMO fame). It was published on February 19th but somehow I missed it in the rush. Thank you B for passing it on.

Here's a great looking report about customer service practices. Called "Extraordinary Customer Service" it explores what customer contact people should do to win and keep clients. An important subject in these days of dwindling revenues and one that can give you the all-important edge over competitors.

Finally, read the 2009 edition of Warren Buffett's to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders that was released today by clicking right here for the full 22 page PDF version.

Two links worth passing on

First, this one to The Economist that does a fair job of summing up the 115 page Latinobarómetro 2008 survey (I suppose..the survey is big and TE has editorial space limits). I'm happy not to have to comment too much on Latin America's most important yearly survey (apart from a big YAY for Paraguay and Uruguay); last year it was a roaring silence from the media, but now that The Economist has picked up the ball it'll get thrown around the chattering classes for sure. At the bottom of the TE note is the link to get your copy of the report for free (it's only available in Spanish).

The second link is to this story in The Asia Sentinel that says China will not make any more investments in overseas mining for the time being. This is scary news for all the Canadian juniors down here and food for thought all round. I should add that I don't know how reliable the Asia Sentinel is, the note has no named byline and no links to sources. So I'm just passing it on as it is. You be the judge, yeah?

UPDATE: On the subject of the chattering classes...BOREV IN DA HOUSE