Chart of the day is....

.....Latin American Index of Budget Transparency, 2009.

Yesterday the 2009 edition annual survey done by the Mexican 'Fundar' organization, called the "Latin American Index of Budget Transparency" was published. The title is a bit of a mouthful, but what this survey does is check on the region's national governments to see how open they are at the time of budgeting and deploying state funds.

In other words, it's a way of telling the chances that the corrupt scum that milk their governments for their own back pockets have for ripping off the people. According the Fundar, any score below 60 is a fail.

In the words of José María Marín, head honcho of Fundar, this year's results were "very disheartening". Apart from Costa Rica, every single country surveyed failed the test. Well, count Otto as unsurprised, as you can argue the merits of "my country is run by scum, but less scum than your country" if you like (Venezuela bottom, natch) but the whole culture of graft and budget secrecy isn't one that is isolated to this-or-that-spot. In fact, thinking about it, it's pretty impressive that Costa Rica has managed to lift itself out of the trough.

Peru CPI survey: So much for growth

Peruvian pollsters CPI ran a survey recently and as well as the usual guff about popularity ratings (Twobreakfasts scored an abysmal 24%) and stuff about voter intentions for the next election (El Chino's daughter leading...it could only happen en un pais bananero) there was an interesting and detailed section on perceptions of the Garcia government and how the people that really matter (not you, not me, not that dumbass who wrote glowing BS for Slate, not the dumbasses in suits at RGE Monitor) namely the citizens of Peru see their country's progress under Twobreakfasts compared to the prvious administration led by Alejandro Toledo.

Here are the charts. This one is the full Monty with all stats but is tough to read....

Click to enlarge (gets big)

...so this second chart strips out the "same" and "no opinion" replies to give an easier-on-the-eye snapshot.

Click to enlarge

So of the 15 categories on display, things are worse than they were previously in nine, same in two and better in four. And note we're talking about the Toledo government by comparison here, the guy that polled single digit popularity numbers when in office. The bar was set very low for Twobreakfasts and he's jumped like an elephant. True mediocrity.

Finally, let's just point to the fact that although Peruvians recognize there is more investment coming into the country (other parts of the same survey make that abundantly clear) they are less content with their lot. It does beg the question as to why the meme of "foreign investment good" is pumped down people's throat sans cesse. But hey, wait a moment! Never mind the locals' views, cos it just so happens to benefit the people that write the reports saying "FDI good".

Funny coincidence dat, innit?

Best ask the foreign press corps about the wonderful Garcia administration....

....because if you bother to ask Peruvians, they'll tell you the truth about how much he and his band of corruptos utterly suck. IPSOS/Apoyo came out with its annual survey on Peruvian attitudes to their government, and here's how they stack up.


So 23% and 22% are happy about the improvement in the Twobreakfasts government between 2007 and 2009, while 44% and 38% say things are ever worse. So how come all you hear about Peru is this economic miracle that's helping its population? Time to call bullshit on idiot foreign journalism in Peru, methinks.

Alan Garcia is a liar: Some empiricals

At the same time President Twobreakfasts was waxing lyrical about Peru's stability and how it was shielded from the world recession and how Peru's GDP would grow 6.5% in 2009 (date, November 2008), the following was happening to Peru's trade balance:

And as bad as that chart looks, if you look further it actually gets worse. This second chart shows the import/export breakdown that results in the above trade balance. As you can see, the slowdown in both sides of the equation adds further recessionary pressure:

Developing nations such as Peru rely on export capacity to drive economic growth. No exports = no growth. That's a bit of cruel reality Economics 101 for you, dudes. S&P, Fitch and all the others can try to hoodwink you into believing that the internal economy is Peru's new driver but that is just so much crap, sad to say. Peru is not a strong currency nation that can run an indefinite trade deficit with the rest of the world; its ability to grow is totally dependent on its ability to sell to other places. And that chart up there is not good news.

It's not about unduly knocking a country or a region (as accused yesterday by some dumbass), it's about looking at the facts, telling the truth and not listening to obvious bullshit from obvious bullshitters. The main reason why Peru is in more trouble than (for example) Chile is that Chile is being mature about its future problems. The government of Peru is still jawboning its people into believing that everything is fine. That Peru GDP forecast is now down to 5%, by the way. It's going lower. Take that to the bank.